Commanders playoff picture: Scenarios, chances for Washington to make postseason
Not much was expected of the Washington Commanders entering the 2024 NFL season, but the tag team of Jayden Daniels and Dan Quinn has helped the team vastly exceed expectations.
Entering Week 17, the Commanders are in control of their own destiny and are poised to clinch a playoff berth for the first time since 2020.
Washington isn't able to make the postseason as the NFC East champions. The Philadelphia Eagles ensured that via their 41-7 shellacking of the Dallas Cowboys in Week 17.
That said, Washington is still highly likely to make the playoffs and could end up squaring off with the Eagles again during the postseason. Here's what to know about the Commanders' postseason chances and what they need over the final two weeks to clinch a playoff berth.
Commanders playoff chances
The Commanders have a 94% chance to make the playoffs, according to The Athletic's playoff prediction model. That makes them the favorite to win one of the final two wild-card spots in the NFC.
Commanders playoff odds
The sportsbooks agree with The Athletic's assessment that the Commanders are all but certain to make the postseason. While the Commanders were listed with odds to win the NFC East before the Eagles' division-clinching win on Sunday afternoon, they aren't listed with odds to make the postseason in general.
That means the sportsbooks believe that Washington should make the postseason entering Week 17.
What needs to happen for Commanders to make playoffs?
The Commanders have several different paths into the postseason. They are as follows:
- The Commanders win one of their last two games;
- The Buccaneers lose or tie against the New Orleans Saints in Week 18;
- The Falcons lose to the Carolina Panthers in Week 18.
The only way the Commanders can be eliminated from postseason contention is if they finish with the same record as the Falcons and Buccaneers. That would allow the Falcons to win the NFC South and the Buccaneers to displace the Commanders in the wild-card race by virtue of Tampa Bay's head-to-head win over Washington in Week 1.
Commanders remaining schedule
The Commanders are in control of their own destiny. They must win (or tie) once in the final two weeks to clinch a playoff berth. They have a solid schedule, as their opponents' combined winning percentage is just .484.
Below is a look at Washington's remaining schedule:
- Week 17: vs. Atlanta Falcons (8-7)
- Week 18: at Dallas Cowboys (7-9)
Commanders potential playoff opponents
The Commanders can be the No. 6 or 7 seed in the NFC playoff picture. That will set them up to play either the No. 2 or No. 3 seed in the conference. That will be one of the following teams:
The Eagles are statistically most likely to be the No. 2 seed, so that could set up an intriguing divisional matchup between the two in the first round of the NFL playoffs.
NFL playoff picture
AFC
- Kansas City Chiefs (15-1, AFC West winners, No. 1 seed)*
- Buffalo Bills (13-3, AFC East winners, No. 2 seed)*
- Baltimore Ravens (11-5, AFC North leaders)*
- Houston Texans (9-7, AFC South winners)*
- Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6, wild card No. 1)*
- Los Angeles Chargers (10-6, wild card No. 2)*
- Denver Broncos (9-7, wild card No. 3)
In the hunt: Cincinnati Bengals (8-8), Miami Dolphins (7-8).
NFC
- Detroit Lions (13-2, NFC North leaders)*
- Philadelphia Eagles (13-3, NFC East winners)*
- Los Angeles Rams (10-6, NFC West leaders)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7, NFC South leaders)
- Minnesota Vikings (13-2, wild card No. 1)*
- Green Bay Packers (11-4, wild card No. 2)*
- Washington Commanders (10-5, wild card No. 3)
In the hunt: Seattle Seahawks (9-7), Atlanta Falcons (8-7)
An asterisk (*) denotes teams that have clinched a playoff spot. Teams that have clinched division titles are noted accordingly.