Dolphins playoff picture: Scenarios, chances for Miami to make postseason
This story has been updated with new information
The Miami Dolphins weren't considered serious playoff contenders after starting the season with a 2-6 record.
However, the Dolphins have gone 6-2 in their last eight games to emerge as a potential wild-card threat in the AFC. Their path to the postseason is far from a guarantee, but if Mike McDaniel's squad can keep winning, it might have a chance to go to the playoffs for a third consecutive year.
Miami isn't in control of its own destiny. To make the 2025 NFL playoffs, it must win its last game and receive some help from the Kansas City Chiefs.
How can the Dolphins make the playoffs? Here's a look at their postseason chances as the final weeks of the 2024 NFL season unfold.
Dolphins playoff chances
The Dolphins have a 28% chance to make the playoffs, according to NFL.com's playoff picture. That ranks as the second-highest chance among the three AFC teams vying for the conference's No. 7 seed.
Dolphins playoff odds
The NFL website's model is more optimistic about the Dolphins' chances than DraftKings Sportsbook. DraftKings lists Miami with +600 odds to make the postseason. That gives the Dolphins an implied probability of 14.29% to qualify for the playoffs.
What needs to happen for Dolphins to make playoffs?
The Dolphins need two things to happen to make the playoffs. They are as follows:
- The Dolphins must win their final game (at the Jets);
- The Chiefs must beat the Denver Broncos (in Kansas City) in Week 18.
Miami also needed the Indianapolis Colts to lose or tie one of their final two games to make the postseason. The Colts lost to the New York Giants in Week 17, checking that goal off Miami's list and widening the Dolphins' path to a postseason appearance.
Dolphins remaining schedule
The Dolphins don't have an overly tricky finish to the 2024 NFL season. They played the Cleveland Browns in Week 17 and have a matchup against the New York Jets to cap off the regular season. Miami had the sixth-easiest schedule league-wide entering play on Sunday, Dec. 29. That fell to seventh-easiest after their win over Cleveland with just one more game to play.
It's worth noting that Miami's final game is also on the road in an outdoor stadium. That didn't hurt the team's chances of winning in Cleveland during a relatively warm day, but it may affect them in East Rutherford, New Jersey if the weather is inclement.
The team was without Tua Tagovailoa in Cleveland due to a hip injury, so Miami needed backup quarterback Tyler Huntley to guide it to a win to stay alive in the NFL playoff race. He did just that, which gave Tagovailoa an extra week to recuperate ahead of a crucial Week 18 matchup.
Below is a look at Miami's remaining schedule:
- Week 18: at New York Jets (4-11)
Broncos remaining schedule
The other good news for the Dolphins is that the Broncos have a difficult matchup to close out the 2024 NFL season. Denver is scheduled to host Kansas City in Week 18. The Chiefs have a 15-1 record and beat the Broncos in a tightly contested 16-14 Week 10 matchup.
That said, it isn't clear whether the Chiefs – who clinched the AFC's No. 1 seed on Christmas with a 29-10 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers – will play their starters in the final week. If not, that could make Denver's path to a playoff-clinching win a bit easier.
As such, Miami's postseason fate may ultimately rest in the hands of Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes.
Below is a look at Denver's schedule:
- Week 18: vs. Kansas City Chiefs (15-1)
Colts remaining schedule
This is where the Dolphins' situation looked problematic. They needed the Colts to lose and Indianapolis entered Week 17 with the easiest remaining schedule in the NFL.
The Colts played against the New York Giants on Sunday and will face the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 18. They had a combined record of 5- 25 entering the season's final two weeks.
However, the Colts fell flat against one of the NFL's worst teams, losing 45-33 to the Giants. That opened the door for the Dolphins to make it into the postseason if the Broncos stumble.
Below is a complete look at Indianapolis' schedule, which will no longer have any bearing on Miami's playoff chances:
- Week 18: vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-12)
Dolphins potential playoff opponents
The Dolphins can only be the No. 7 seed in the NFL playoffs if everything breaks right for them. The Buffalo Bills clinched the No. 2 seed in the AFC on Sunday, so that would be Miami's opponent if the Dolphins make it into the postseason.
The Dolphins are 0-2 against the Bills this season, losing by a combined score of 61-37.
AFC playoff picture Week 17
AFC
- Kansas City Chiefs (15-1, AFC West winners, No. 1 seed)*
- Buffalo Bills (13-3, AFC East winners, No. 2 seed)*
- Baltimore Ravens (11-5, AFC North leaders)*
- Houston Texans (9-7, AFC South winners, No. 4 seed)*
- Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6, wild card No. 1)*
- Los Angeles Chargers (10-6, wild card No. 2)*
- Denver Broncos (9-7, wild card No. 3)
In the hunt: Miami Dolphins (8-8), Cincinnati Bengals (8-8)
NFC
- Minnesota Vikings (14-2, NFC North leaders)*
- Philadelphia Eagles (13-3, NFC East winners)*
- Los Angeles Rams (10-6, NFC West winners)*
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7, NFC South leaders)
- Detroit Lions (13-2, wild card No. 1)*
- Washington Commanders (11-5, wild card No. 2)*
- Green Bay Packers (11-5, wild card No. 3)*
In the hunt: Atlanta Falcons (8-8)
An asterisk (*) denotes teams that have clinched a playoff spot. Teams that have clinched division titles are noted accordingly.