NFL playoff odds for five teams contending in Week 18: Chances for Broncos, Bengals, more
There's one week remaining in the 2024 NFL regular season and Week 18 promises a chaotic finish to the playoff picture.
Of the 14 playoff spots, 12 have already been claimed, leaving two playoff tickets to be punched in the season's final weekend. One spot apiece in the AFC and NFC is waiting to be clinched.
The AFC has three teams battling over the final wild card spot. The Denver Broncos (9-7) are attempting to stave off the Miami Dolphins (8-8) and the Cincinnati Bengals (8-8).
Meanwhile, the lone playoff spot up for contention in the NFC is the battle for the NFC South crown. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7) are eyeing their fourth consecutive division title, but the Atlanta Falcons (8-8) are waiting if they slip up on Sunday.
Nearly half the league's fan bases are looking ahead to the playoffs. Meanwhile, the other half are elbow deep in mock drafts and the draft order. This weekend's outcomes will provide more clarity for all parties when the playoff picture is finalized.
Here's how the sportsbooks see each of the five team's chances of playing in the 2024 playoffs.
NFL playoff picture by odds
All odds courtesy of BetMGM, Tuesday, Dec. 31.
- Atlanta Falcons: to make playoffs: Yes +775 (implied chance 11.4%)
- Cincinnati Bengals: Yes +1600 (5.9%), No -10000 (1%)
- Denver Broncos: Yes -700 (87.5%), No +500 (16.7%)
- Miami Dolphins: Yes +650 (13.3%), No -1000 (90.9%)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Yes -1600 (94.1%)
AFC teams clinched playoff berth in 2024
- Buffalo Bills: Clinched AFC East title
- Houston Texans: Clinched AFC South title
- Kansas City Chiefs: Clinched AFC West title
- Baltimore Ravens: Clinched playoff berth
- Pittsburgh Steelers: Clinched playoff berth
- Los Angeles Chargers: Clinched playoff berth
NFC teams clinched playoff berth in 2024
- Detroit Lions: Clinched playoff berth
- Philadelphia Eagles: Clinched NFC East title
- Los Angeles Rams: Clinched NFC West title
- Minnesota Vikings: Clinched playoff berth
- Green Bay Packers: Clinched playoff berth
- Washington Commanders: Clinched playoff berth
NFL teams eliminated from playoff contention in 2024
- New York Giants
- Las Vegas Raiders
- New England Patriots
- Jacksonville Jaguars
- Tennessee Titans
- Cleveland Browns
- New York Jets
- Chicago Bears
- Carolina Panthers
- New Orleans Saints
- Dallas Cowboys
- Arizona Cardinals
- Seattle Seahawks
- San Francisco 49ers
- Indianapolis Colts
AFC playoff odds
The AFC has three teams battling over its final wild card spot.
The Broncos have a third swing at clinching the AFC's seventh playoff spot. Denver's tasks remain the same as the last two weeks: win-and-in. It wasted the opportunity in Week 16 against the Chargers and then Week 17 against the Bengals, but with one more victory – or tie – this Sunday, Denver will clinch a playoff berth for the first time since they won Super Bowl 50 nine years ago.
The Broncos play the Chiefs, who could rest their starters after already clinching the No. 1 seed and bye. The possibility of facing Carson Wentz instead of Patrick Mahomes is a significant reason the sportsbook has given Denver an 87.5% chance of clinching this weekend.
The Bengals (8-8) have been an exciting team to watch. Some fans hope the MVP-caliber season from Joe Burrow will carry them into the playoffs but they check in with an implied 1% chance to clinch. The Bengals have needed to win out and have strung together four wins in a row. They play at Pittsburgh on Saturday night, but even with a fifth consecutive win they would need help to get in.
The Bengals would need the Dolphins to lose their game against the Jets on Sunday and the Broncos to lose to the Chiefs. If Denver loses and the Bengals win, the Dolphins hold the tiebreaker (AFC record) over Cincinnati. As a result, Miami is given better odds.
NFC playoff odds
Atlanta spent the first half of the season as the favorite to win the NFC South, but it has faltered down the stretch. The Falcons and Buccaneers' only path to the playoffs is to win the NFC South, and Tampa Bay is in the driver's seat heading into Week 18.
Atlanta is given (+775) odds or an implied 11.4% chance to make the playoffs by virtue of winning the division. The Falcons squandered the opportunity to have a win-and-in scenario in Week 18 when they lost to Washington on Sunday night.
Meanwhile, Tampa Bay took care of business, is getting healthy with Mike Evans back in the fold, and is pushing for a fourth consecutive NFC South title and a fifth consecutive playoff berth. The Buccaneers are in a good position to win the division with a matchup against the beleaguered Saints on Sunday. It's win-and-in for the Buccaneers, who are given over a 94% implied probability of winning the NFC South.