Bengals playoff picture: Scenarios, chances Cincinnati will make postseason
The Cincinnati Bengals appeared well out of the NFL playoff race after their 44-38 Week 13 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers. The defeat dropped them to 4-8 on the season, leaving little margin for error to get back into the postseason chase.
Fast-forward a month and the Bengals are on a four-game winning streak. They have improved to 8-8 on the season and have survived in the playoff picture as one of three teams vying for the AFC's seventh and final seed.
Cincinnati is not in control of its own destiny in Week 18. To qualify for the postseason, it needs to defeat the Steelers on the road and get help from a few other teams.
Here's a look at the Bengals' slim playoff chances and what must happen for them to make it into the postseason.
Bengals playoff chances
The Bengals have a 6% chance to make the playoffs entering Week 18, according to The Athletic's playoff prediction model. That ranks as the slimmest margin among the three teams fighting for the final playoff spot in the AFC; the Denver Broncos have an estimated 74% chance to make the postseason while the Miami Dolphins' chances are 19%.
Bengals playoff odds
The Bengals are listed with +1600 odds to make the postseason, per BetMGM Sportsbook. That gives the Bengals an implied probability of 5.88% to qualify for the playoffs, which just about lines up with The Athletic's projections.
Comparatively, the Broncos have -700 odds to make the playoffs as the AFC's No. 7 seed, while the Dolphins sport +650 chances.
How can the Bengals make the playoffs?
The Bengals need three things to happen in Week 18 to make the playoffs. They are as follows:
- The Bengals must beat the Pittsburgh Steelers;
- The Broncos must lose to the Kansas City Chiefs;
- The Dolphins must lose or tie against the New York Jets.
That represents the only path that the Bengals have into playoff contention, and it won't be easy.
While the 15-1 Chiefs are usually a formidable opponent, they plan to rest their starters in Week 18. That includes star quarterback Patrick Mahomes, so the Bengals must hope that Carson Wentz can deliver a good performance against a strong Broncos defense to pull off the upset there.
Even if Kansas City wins, Cincinnati still needs New York to upset Miami to make the postseason. The Dolphins are missing Tua Tagovailoa for the game and will rely on backup Tyler Huntley as their quarterback, which could make things a bit easier for the Jets.
Still, New York is fresh off a demoralizing 40-14 loss during which it failed to score with starting quarterback Aaron Rodgers in the game. That said, the veteran quarterback acknowledged that Sunday could be his last NFL game, so perhaps that – along with his quest for 500 career passing touchdowns – will motivate the team to play at a high level.
Bengals potential playoff opponents
If the Bengals can overcome their long odds and make the NFL playoffs, they will be the AFC's No. 7 seed. The Buffalo Bills, who won over the Jets in Week 17, locked up the conference's No. 2 seed, so Cincinnati will travel to Buffalo if it gets the necessary results in Week 18.
A matchup between Joe Burrow and Josh Allen, two of the NFL's top MVP candidates for 2024, would intrigue NFL fans. Burrow has a 2-0 record against the Bills during his career. That includes a 27-10 win in Buffalo during the 2023 NFL playoffs.
NFL playoff picture Week 18
AFC
- Kansas City Chiefs (15-1, AFC West winners, No. 1 seed)*
- Buffalo Bills (12-3, AFC East winners, No. 2 seed)*
- Baltimore Ravens (11-5, AFC North leaders)*
- Houston Texans (9-7, AFC South winners, No. 4 seed)*
- Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6, wild card No. 1)*
- Los Angeles Chargers (10-6, wild card No. 2)*
- Denver Broncos (9-7, wild card No. 3)
In the hunt: Miami Dolphins (8-8), Cincinnati Bengals (8-8).
NFC
- Detroit Lions (14-2, NFC North leaders)*
- Philadelphia Eagles (13-3, NFC East winners, No. 2 seed)*
- Los Angeles Rams (10-6, NFC West winners)*
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7, NFC South leaders)
- Minnesota Vikings (14-2, wild card No. 1)*
- Washington Commanders (11-5, wild card No. 2)*
- Green Bay Packers (11-5, wild card No. 3)*
In the hunt: Atlanta Falcons (8-8)
An asterisk (*) denotes teams that have clinched a playoff spot. Teams that have clinched division titles are noted accordingly.