Dolphins playoff picture: Scenarios, chances for Miami to make postseason
When the Miami Dolphins lost their Week 9 matchup with the Buffalo Bills, dropping them to 2-6 on the season, most of their fans dreamed of a top-10 draft pick instead of a potential playoff spot.
However, Mike McDaniel's squad has flipped the script in the second half of the NFL season. Since losing to the Bills, the Dolphins have gone 6-2, capitalizing on weaker portions of their schedule to get back into the playoff hunt.
Now, Miami has a legitimate path to the playoffs entering Week 18. The 8-8 team will need to win and get some help to qualify for the postseason, but its chances of making the AFC playoffs rank second among the final three teams vying for a playoff spot.
How can the Dolphins make the playoffs? Here's what must happen for Miami to make the postseason for a third consecutive season to begin McDaniel's tenure.
Dolphins playoff chances
The Dolphins have a 19% chance to make the playoffs entering Week 18, according to The Athletic's playoff prediction model. That puts them behind the Denver Broncos, who have an estimated 74% chance to make the postseason, but ahead of the Cincinnati Bengals, whose postseason chances land at just 6%.
Dolphins playoff odds
The Dolphins are listed with +650 odds to make the postseason, per BetMGM Sportsbook. That gives Miami an implied probability of 13.33% to qualify for the playoffs, which is slightly more pessimistic than The Athletic's projections.
Comparatively, the Broncos have -700 odds to make the playoffs as the AFC's No. 7 seed, while the Bengals are longshots at +1600.
How can the Dolphins make the playoffs?
The Dolphins have a simple path to the postseason in Week 18. It is as follows:
- The Dolphins must beat the New York Jets;
- The Broncos must lose to the Kansas City Chiefs.
While Miami's path is straightforward, it won't be easy. First, the Dolphins will have to beat the Jets without Tua Tagovailoa, who will miss Week 18 with a hip injury. Backup Tyler Huntley led the Dolphins to a victory over the Cleveland Browns, but the Jets will be a tougher matchup.
New York may be coming off a 40-14 Week 17 loss to the Buffalo Bills, but Aaron Rodgers acknowledged that Sunday could be his last NFL game. That will motivate him to get his 500th touchdown pass – he's currently at 499 – and a vintage Rodgers performance may make it tough for the Dolphins to go blow-for-blow with the Jets.
Even if the Dolphins win their coin-flip game against the Jets, they will need the Broncos to lose to the Chiefs. Miami would usually feel good about that, but Kansas City plans to rest its starters including quarterback Patrick Mahomes, in Week 18.
The Dolphins will then rely on Carson Wentz to deliver a win against a strong Broncos defense. This could prove difficult to manage, especially with Denver playing its full complement of starters in a must-win game.
Dolphins potential playoff opponents
If the Dolphins get the results needed to make the NFL playoffs, they will be the AFC's No. 7 seed. The Buffalo Bills are locked into the conference's No. 2 seed by virtue of their Week 17 win over the Jets, so Miami would travel to Buffalo if it makes the playoffs.
The Bills have recently dominated their rivalry with the Dolphins. Buffalo has beaten Miami six consecutive times, including a 34-31 victory in the 2023 NFL playoffs. Tagovailoa has never won an NFL start where the kickoff temperature was below 45 degrees, so the Dolphins may be the Bills' preferred opponent among their three potential options.
NFL playoff picture Week 18
AFC
- Kansas City Chiefs (15-1, AFC West winners, No. 1 seed)*
- Buffalo Bills (12-3, AFC East winners, No. 2 seed)*
- Baltimore Ravens (11-5, AFC North leaders)*
- Houston Texans (9-7, AFC South winners, No. 4 seed)*
- Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6, wild card No. 1)*
- Los Angeles Chargers (10-6, wild card No. 2)*
- Denver Broncos (9-7, wild card No. 3)
In the hunt: Miami Dolphins (8-8), Cincinnati Bengals (8-8).
NFC
- Detroit Lions (14-2, NFC North leaders)*
- Philadelphia Eagles (13-3, NFC East winners, No. 2 seed)*
- Los Angeles Rams (10-6, NFC West winners)*
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7, NFC South leaders)
- Minnesota Vikings (14-2, wild card No. 1)*
- Washington Commanders (11-5, wild card No. 2)*
- Green Bay Packers (11-5, wild card No. 3)*
In the hunt: Atlanta Falcons (8-8)
An asterisk (*) denotes teams that have clinched a playoff spot. Teams that have clinched division titles are noted accordingly.