NFL contract incentives player prop bets Week 18: Include Mike Evans, Kyler Murray and more
New year, new you?
The beginning of the year is always filled with hope and anticipation, bringing what appears to be a season of change. Maybe you want to hit the gym to get your summer body in good shape. Maybe you're after a promotion or want to learn a new skill. Whatever the reason, the result is often driving the bus here.
However, deadlines also bring results. Rushing to turn in that assignment by 11:59 p.m. is a good example.
The same rings true in the NFL. Where Week 18 brings the promise of incentive bonuses or milestones that etch your name into the history books. The bottom line is it's now or never. As the league marches towards its regular season conclusion this week, more than a few players are scrambling to get things done before it's too late.
With one week to go we know what players are striving for, which creates some opportunities for us to profit. Here are the best incentive or milestone-related bets to make in the NFL for Week 18 as we try to start the year on the right foot.
Best NFL incentive player prop bets Week 18
All odds are via BetMGM as of Friday.
Joe Burrow, Bengals QB, OVER 350 passing yards (+400)
There are two long shots worth checking out on the slate this weekend. The first is courtesy of Saturday's games involving the Bengals and Burrow. Only nine players in NFL history have thrown for 5,000 yards or more in a season. Burrow is 359 yards away from joining that exclusive club. Cincinnati's playoff hopes are hanging on by a thread.
They'll need a win to keep them alive heading into Sunday, and Burrow's arm will have to be a big factor in that. He passed for 412 yards in Week 17 with their backs against the wall and went over 350 in four of seven. Burrow should threaten this number in a must-win game, especially with some history on the line.
Davante Adams, Jets WR, anytime TD scorer (+140)
Sunday might be the last game of Aaron Rodgers' career. At the very least, it looks like the end of his Jets' career. There's a finality in the end, something we all have to deal with in our lives. You'll get off the school bus for the last time, talk to a friend for the last time, and drive your first car for the last time. Countless other things fit into this category that breeds nostalgia, but we're here to smile because it happened.
For years, Rodgers and Adams dazzled NFL fans in Green Bay, forming one of the greatest connections in the sport. Adams caught touchdown passes No. 200 and No. 400 from Rodgers and wants to add No. 500 to the memory box. The sequel in New York hasn't been as glamorous as the original, especially on a team that appears forever mired in mediocrity. Regardless, expect Rodgers, staring down NFL mortality, to get the ball to his friend for one last on-field memory before making a decision on his future.
Mike Evans, Buccaneers WR, OVER 96.5 receiving yards (-110)
Evans needs five catches and 85 receiving yards for a $3 million bonus. As if that wasn't reason enough, the Bucs also need a win to clinch a playoff spot. The lowly Saints await on the other side, who allow the fifth-most yards per game to opposing receivers. The 96.5 is a ridiculous number, especially considering his line has been set at around 70 or less yards per game for most of the season.
It's crept up recently with the 1,000-yard chase on for Jerry Rice's record. Evans is looking to tie Rice for most consecutive seasons with 1,000 yards receiving at 11. We know Baker Mayfield will do everything he can to get Evans the ball and won't stop until the record and the payday are safe. It also happens that Evans is a key cog in a Tampa Bay offense that needs him to reach the playoffs. The line screams under, but the history and monetary gains tell you to ignore the stats and trust the narrative.
Courtland Sutton, Broncos WR, ALT OVER 80+ receiving yards (+165)
Speaking of a player looking to cash in while his team chases a playoff spot, we welcome Sutton to the party. He is 82 yards away from hitting the final incentive bonus for receiving yards, which would net him $500,000. Those yards would bring him to that 1,065 number he's looking to hit, meaning we really like the +165 number attached to this wager.
Sutton is already locked in as the Broncos' No. 1 receiver and gets a Chiefs team that is resting starters ahead of the playoffs. Kansas City is locked into the No. 1 seed, and health is more important than trying to ruin a division rival's season. Sutton already collected 6-of-9 targets for 70 yards and a touchdown in Week 10 against K.C. when they were trying. We're asking for 10 more yards and don't even need the touchdown. Expect him to play a huge role as Denver tries to secure a playoff spot.
Kyler Murray, Cardinals QB, Over 31.5 rushing yards (-125)
Murray is looking for 50 rushing yards and a touchdown to take home $750,000. He already posted 83 rushing yards and a touchdown in Week 5 using his legs against San Francisco, his best running performance of the season. Arizona loaded Murray's contract with incentives after video game-gate dominated headlines before his contract extension. While the Cardinals aren't going to the playoffs, Murray can secure a nice check going into the offseason to buy some new equipment and plenty of in-game purchases to boost his gaming.
Jared Goff, Lions QB, OVER 4 passing touchdowns (+650)
As our final long shot of Week 18, it only makes sense to target game No. 272 of the NFL regular season. The Motor City is the site for the finale, featuring a matchup between two 14-win teams that will determine who secures the NFC's No. 1 seed. The loser ends up as a wild card, but we're going into this game knowing there are plenty of points on the menu.
Detroit has been scoring at will in recent weeks and Goff has tossed at least three touchdowns in four straight, including five against Buffalo. Without David "Knuckles" Montgomery in the backfield, Goff's arm will be of more importance. In a game as massive as this, both teams should trade blows throughout before someone finally secures a knockout punch. Goff has a chance to land some haymakers, especially against a blitz-happy Minnesota unit.