10 thoughts on Detroit Lions' incredible season – and a Super Bowl prediction
The Detroit Lions finished the regular season 15-2, tied with this year’s Kansas City Chiefs for the best record since the NFL expanded to a 17-game regular season for the 2021 season.
They have a bye this week and return to action on Jan. 18 or 19 in the divisional round of the playoffs.
Here are 10 quick thoughts on the Lions, what they’ve accomplished so far, what they need to do to reach Super Bowl 59 — and a prediction for who plays in New Orleans on Feb. 9.
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More Jah
The Lions have a decision to make on how hard to ride Jahmyr Gibbs once David Montgomery returns from the torn MCL that’s sidelined him the past three weeks, presumably for their playoff opener in a little under two weeks.
Gibbs closed the regular season with three straight 100-yard rushing games and nearly topped 2,000 yards from scrimmage this year. He’s one of the three best running backs in the NFL, and the Lions offense is at its best when he’s on the field.
The Lions divvied the workload pretty evenly between Gibbs and Montgomery most of the regular season, and Montgomery deserves a role when he returns. But now that we’re entering the win-or-go-home portion of the schedule, and now that they’ve seen what Gibbs can do as lead back, the Lions would be wise to lean heavily on Gibbs in the playoffs.
Gibbs has averaged 21.3 carries and 121.7 yards the past three weeks. That equates to a 2,068-yard rushing season over 17 games — more than Barry Sanders’ best season (albeit in one more game) and more than Saquon Barkley had this year (though he only played 16, too).
With Montgomery healthy, Gibbs averaged 13.3 carries and 74,8 rushing yards per game. On a Lions team that averages 31 rushes a game for the season, I’d aim to keep Gibbs right where about where he’s been the past few weeks.
Most valuable addition
Of all the talent the Lions acquired last offseason — trading for Carlton Davis III, signing D.J. Reader, trading up for Terrion Arnold in the draft — the player who might end up being the most valuable is cornerback Amik Robertson.
Robertson played as the Lions’ primary slot cornerback the first 14 games of the season before moving outside the past three weeks with Davis out with a broken jaw. On Sunday, he spent the day covering Justin Jefferson, and while it wasn’t a solo affair, he helped hold the NFL’s best receiver to three catches on nine targets for 54 yards.
At 5 feet 9, Robertson is not your typical outside cornerback. But what he lacks in size he more than makes up for with a scrappiness that has endeared him to Lions coach Dan Campbell.
“He’s as competitive as they come,” Campbell said. “He doesn’t turn down any challenge, and no matter what you can say, ‘Hey, go cover that guy,’ and he’s going to give you his best. He’s not going to shy away from it, he’s not going to fear from it.”
Kerb your enthusiasm
Safety Kerby Joseph finished with a league-best nine interceptions this season and led all defensive backs (by a wide margin) in passer rating against and expected points allowed in coverage.
Joseph was one interception away from becoming the first safety since Ronnie Lott in 1986 to reach double-digit picks for the year and return at least one of those interceptions for a touchdown, and he would have joined Lott in that exclusive club if he didn’t have two picks nullified by penalty.
I don’t think Joseph has much chance to win Defensive Player of the Year — I’m one of 50 voters for the award and our ballots are due Wednesday — but he has set himself up nicely for a contract extension this offseason.
The Lions signed cornerstone pieces Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Penei Sewell and Alim McNeill to long-term deals in the past 12 months, and Joseph’s range and ball skills could vault him up the list of highest-paid safeties before next season.
Three wishes
I’m skeptical we’ll see any of the three back on the field this season, but the Lions have three return-from-IR spots left if Davis, Aidan Hutchinson or Derrick Barnes can clear enough hurdles in their rehab over the next month to be ready by the Super Bowl.
Hutchinson broke his leg in early October, Barnes tore the MCL and PCL in his knee in late September, and Davis broke his jaw last month. Barnes told reporters last week he expects to be ready by the Super Bowl or shortly thereafter, Hutchinson is working from an initial four- to six-month timeline for return, and Davis’ best-case scenario was coming back in late January.
Given the nature of their injuries and the lack of football shape they’ll be in, I’m not sure how meaningful the contributions Hutchinson or Barnes could make even if they do get back. But there’s no question the carrot is still dangling for all three to chase, and it never hurts keeping good players involved.
Ben there, done that
Lions coordinators Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn can conduct interviews this week with the Lions on a bye, and it’s no surprise both received multiple requests from teams with coaching vacancies Monday.
Plenty of people have connected the dots on Johnson to the Chicago Bears and Glenn to the New Orleans Saints, but the fits I find most intriguing are Johnson to the New England Patriots and Glenn to the Bears.
The Patriots have Drake Maye — a QB who had an impressive rookie season — a boatload of cap space (a projected $125 million for next year), the No. 4 pick in the draft and a respected owner in Robert Kraft. Mike Vrabel is the betting favorite to get the job because of his history as a player with the franchise, but the Patriots have had defensive-minded head coaches, in Bill Belichick and Jerod Mayo, for more than two decades and Johnson’s offensive acumen could be a home run with Maye.
As for Glenn, he’d give the Bears the strong leader they’ve lacked for years and would inherit a talented, young quarterback in Caleb Williams. The NFC North is home to three of the best coaches in football in Campbell, Kevin O’Connell and Matt LaFleur, and if either Lions coordinator joined the mix that’d make for a powerhouse division of coaches.
Heading upstairs
The Jets are the only team that currently has a general manager opening, which makes it unlikely Brad Holmes will lose any of his top lieutenants. That could change, of course, in the coming days, and reports suggest Johnson may be intrigued by jobs in Chicago and Jacksonville if they move on from their current GMs.
Lions assistant general manager Ray Agnew is worthy of interviews for any GM job given his role in the front office. Washington Commanders assistant GM Lance Newmark is a former Lions executive who’s been linked to Johnson. And the Lions always could lose other respected evaluators to promotions elsewhere.
Newmark and Dave Sears have left the past two springs for assistant GM jobs (Sears is with the Arizona Cardinals), and execs such as pro personnel director Rob Lohman, director of college scouting Brian Hudspeth and director of scouting Dwayne Joseph are among others on similar ascending tracks.
Adjustments ahead
The Lions should have staying power as a contender because of the way they’ve built the roster, but no matter what happens in the playoffs, they could face an adjustment period next year.
The Lions have benefitted from the incredible continuity they’ve had on staff — Johnson, Glenn and several position coaches have held prominent roles since Campbell’s first season in Detroit in 2021 — and likely will have multiple new faces in key spots next season.
Beyond that, the Lions will play a significantly tougher schedule out of division next year. This year, the Lions drew arguably the league’s worst division (the AFC South) for cross-division games. In 2025, they have a brutal road schedule with visits to playoff teams in the Eagles, Commanders, Rams, Chiefs and Ravens, plus a road game against talented Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals.
A lot can change in the offseason, so there’s no point in looking too far ahead. But the Lions could face some new challenges in 2025.
Next up
The Lions will face one of four teams in their playoff opener next week, the lowest-seeded winner of the (5) Vikings-(4) Rams, (7) Packers-(2) Eagles and (6) Commanders-(3) Buccaneers games.
Of the Vikings, Packers, Rams or Commanders, I think the Rams would be the toughest test because of their passing game, the Commanders would present the easiest path with a rookie quarterback (as dangerous as he is) playing on the road, and I wouldn’t be too scared to face either division rival a third time.
The Lions have better rosters than both the Vikings and Packers and their 6-0 division record this season was no fluke. I know Campbell told O’Connell he’d see him in two weeks, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see that happen. But there’s no reason to think the Vikings can beat the Lions based on what we’ve seen already this year.
Pick six
Ultimately, I don’t think we’ll get Lions-Vikings III. I’m taking the Rams to beat the Vikings in Southern California on Monday night in the last of this weekend’s six wild-card games.
As for the rest of my picks, the Commanders-Bucs game is a toss-up. Tampa handled Washington fairly easily in the season opener, but I’m taking the Commanders in Tampa in a close one. And I’ll go chalk in Philadelphia and take the Eagles to end the Packers’ season, so long as QB Jalen Hurts clears concussion protocol.
In the AFC, give me the Ravens in a blowout over the Steelers, the Bills in a nipper against the Denver Broncos, and Jim Harbaugh to lead the Chargers to victory in his return to the playoffs against the Houston Texans.
An early Super Bowl prediction
I had the Lions winning the NFC and facing the Kansas City Chiefs in my preseason Super Bowl prediction, and I don’t see much reason to change that now.
The Lions are the best team in the NFC and they have the best non-weather-related homefield advantage in all of football. The Eagles are a really good team, and beating Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua and Co. for a second straight year in the playoffs won’t be a cinch, but I don’t see the Lions losing at Ford Field.
In the AFC, there are three really good teams in the Chiefs, Bills and Ravens. I think the Ravens would be the toughest matchup in the Super Bowl, and the Bills already put it to the Lions at Ford Field. But Patrick Mahomes is still the best player on the planet and he’s got a chance to do something no quarterback has done before: lead his team to three straight Super Bowl titles.
It’ll be Lions-Chiefs in New Orleans. Hopefully I’ll see you there.
Dave Birkett is the author of the new book, "Detroit Lions: An Illustrated Timeline.” Order your copy here.