Bills vs. Ravens in NFL playoffs: Early predictions, odds, matchups to watch
Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson have been battling throughout the 2024 NFL season for the designation of MVP frontrunner. Now, they will go head-to-head on the field with a trip to the AFC championship game on the line.
The Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens are set to meet in the AFC divisional round in a matchup between the conference's No. 2 and No. 3 seeds. Both Baltimore and Buffalo won their wild card games handily, with the Ravens romping to a 28-14 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers on Saturday and the Bills thrashing a quality Denver Broncos defense 31-7.
The matchup between Baltimore and Buffalo will be their second meeting of the season. The Ravens earned a dominant 35-10 victory over the Bills in Week 4 behind a 199-yard outing from Derrick Henry. Baltimore will be hoping for a similarly strong performance while Buffalo will hope that home-field advantage can provide a boost.
How will the Bills vs. Ravens divisional matchup go? Here's what to expect as two of the NFL's Super Bowl favorites meet in the divisional round of the AFC playoffs.
Bills vs. Ravens odds
The Bills hold a slight edge over the Ravens in the contest, according to the BetMGM NFL odds. Not interested in this game? Check out expert picks and best bets for every NFL game this week.
- Spread: Bills (-1)
- Moneyline: Bills (-115); Ravens (-105)
- Over/under: 51.5
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Bills vs. Ravens matchups to watch
Both the Bills and Ravens have plenty of quality offensive playmakers, and it will be on the respective defenses to slow them down. Here's a look at some of the most notable on which to keep an eye.
Derrick Henry vs. Bills run defense
Buffalo's No. 1 goal against Baltimore has to be to slow down Henry. Case and point, the first play of the Bills vs. Ravens game from Week 4, when Henry took Baltimore's first offensive play 87 yards for a touchdown:
Henry didn't slow down much after that. He racked up 199 rushing yards in the contest, 112 of which came after his opening-play burst.
The Bills allowed 115.5 rushing yards per game during the 2024 NFL season, good for 12th-best in the NFL. They need a strong performance out of their defensive line to muck things up for Henry, and they will also need their linebackers and safeties to be ready to come downhill and make tackles against the big-bodied bruiser.
It's worth noting that neither linebacker Terrel Bernard nor Matt Milano was on the field in Week 4, so their presence alone should give Buffalo a better chance to contain Baltimore's rushing attack.
Lamar Jackson vs. Matt Milano
Speaking of Milano, his presence could be key in containing Jackson on the ground. He is Buffalo's most athletic and instinctive linebacker, and he may be asked, on occasion, to spy Jackson, just as he did against Bo Nix in Buffalo's win over the Broncos.
Milano will also likely be asked to attack Jackson off the edge and scrape toward the quarterback when he keeps the read option. That's not easy for any linebacker to accomplish, especially considering Jackson's unique combination of speed and elusiveness in space, so Milano will have to play disciplined throughout the contest to give the Bills a chance to get consistent stops.
Josh Allen and James Cook vs. Ravens run defense
The Ravens had the top run defense in the NFL during the 2024 season, allowing just 77.2 yards per game on the ground. That was 16.2 yards better than the second-ranked Minnesota Vikings.
The Bills are going to do their best to buck that trend. They just ran for a whopping 210 yards against a Broncos defense that ranked third in the league allowing 96.4 yards per game, so with Allen and Cook, they have the horses needed to stress Baltimore's top-ranked unit.
Still, the Ravens allowed the sixth-fewest rushing yards to quarterbacks during the 2024 season and a paltry 3.75 yards per attempt. And when Buffalo last played Baltimore, Allen and Cook combined for just 60 rushing yards on 14 carries.
If the Ravens' run stuffers like Michael Pierce, Travis Jones and star linebacker Roquan Smith show up in this matchup, that could throw a wrench into Buffalo's offensive plans. The Bills can't let that happen again and expect to win.
Early prediction for Bills vs. Ravens
- Ravens 27, Bills 24
No matter how you slice this game, it looks like it's going to come down to which defense is better able to limit its opposition's running game. That would leave the advantage with the Ravens.
Baltimore's running game is the hardest with which to deal league-wide. Stopping Henry was hard enough when he was paired with marginal athletes at quarterback. This season, he has played alongside an elite athlete in Jackson, which has opened up wide-open lanes for him. It's hard to imagine the Bills eliminating those, even if the presence of Bernard and Milano improves their outlook.
And while the Bills could run well on the Ravens' front, the fact is that Baltimore has limited teams – especially running quarterbacks – more consistently than Buffalo. That's another slight edge in this matchup for the Ravens.
Still, Buffalo can't be counted out. They are the home team and Allen, like Jackson, is playing at the highest level of his career. Even if he has a quieter day on the ground than usual, Allen should find a way to move the ball through the air. The Bills don't have a true No. 1 receiver, but their receiving-by-committee approach – featuring Amari Cooper, Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid – has improved as the season progressed.
Baltimore's passing offense may be more of a wild card in this contest than usual. Jackson has been excellent this season, but it isn't clear whether Zay Flowers – who is dealing with a knee injury – will be able to play or be full strength for this game. The Bills might be able to limit what Baltimore accomplishes through the air if that's the case.
But even so, the Ravens seem to have the matchup edge in this one and have won five consecutive games by 14-plus points. As long as they remain red-hot, it's hard to recommend picking against them.
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