Chiefs vs. Texans best bets: Top player props, anytime TD scorer picks for Saturday
The Kansas City Chiefs and Houston Texans played a tightly-contested battle in Week 16 that the Chiefs won 27-19. The Texans are hoping to avenge that loss four weeks later while also searching for their first divisional playoff win in franchise history.
Houston is 0-5 in its five previous divisional round appearances and has yet to make the AFC championship game since the franchise's inaugural season in 2002. Meanwhile, the Chiefs are eyeing a seventh consecutive AFC championship game appearance as they begin their quest for an unprecedented Super Bowl three-peat.
NFL bettors will be excited to place wagers on player props in this contest given how recently they saw this head-to-head matchup play out.
What are the best bets for the Chiefs vs. Texans NFL playoff game? Here's a look at the top player props and anytime TD scorers to back in this AFC divisional round clash.
NFL best bets tonight: Chiefs vs. Texans
All odds are via BetMGM as of Friday.
Dalton Schultz OVER 37.5 receiving yards (-120)
The Chiefs have sported one of the NFL's best defenses during the 2024 NFL season, and that figures to carry over into the 2025 playoffs. So, too, will Kansas City's struggles to contain the tight end position.
Steve Spagnuolo's unit allowed the most receiving yards (1,191) and second-most receptions (106) to tight ends during the 2024 NFL season. It marked the unit's only significant Achilles' heel and could present Schultz with an opportunity to enjoy a strong performance.
Schultz averaged a modest 3.1 catches and 31.3 receiving yards per game for the Texans this season but could be in line for more work after his backup tight end, rookie Cade Stover, was placed on IR following Houston's wild-card win over the Los Angeles Chargers. Irv Smith Jr. is currently the Texans' only other healthy tight end, though Teagan Quitoriano could return from IR this week to bolster the unit.
Even if Quitoriano returns, Schultz figures to be the biggest yardage threat among Houston's tight ends. Expect him to be C.J. Stroud's secondary target in this one behind only Nico Collins, which should give Schultz a chance to improve upon the five catches and 45 yards he logged against the Chiefs in Week 16.
Patrick Mahomes OVER 23.5 rushing yards (-120)
During his career, Mahomes has averaged 3.9 carries and 20 yards rushing per game in the regular season across 112 appearances. In 18 playoff games, those numbers jump up to 5 attempts and 29.1 rushing yards per game.
These numbers are no fluke. Quarterbacks tend to be more willing to run the ball in the playoffs, where every game is a do-or-die situation. And while Mahomes is a passer first, he has shown the ability to make plenty of Houdini-like scrambles, just like he did on his 15-yard touchdown run against the Texans in their last meeting.
Mahomes totaled 33 yards on five runs against the Texans in Week 16, which was impressive considering he was less than a week removed from an ankle sprain suffered against the Cleveland Browns in Week 15. The Chiefs quarterback has had an extra four weeks to heal since that contest, including a span of 24 days during which he didn't play a snap after Kansas City clinched the No. 1 seed in the AFC.
As a result, Mahomes should be poised to once again run well against Houston's defense. The Texans allowed the 11th-most rushing yards to quarterbacks (400) in 2024 despite only allowing 60 total rushing attempts to quarterbacks, seventh-fewest in the league.
Nico Collins anytime TD scorer (+190)
The Chiefs sport a strong defense but they allowed 19 touchdowns to wide receivers in 2024, tied for the sixth-most in the NFL. It's important to note that four of those came in Week 18 against the Denver Broncos, when Kansas City rested a majority of its starters, but it still points to a secondary that can be beaten by talented wide receivers.
Collins qualifies as one. The 1,000-yard receiver had a touchdown percentage of 10.3% in 2024 and figures to see a high volume of targets as Houston's clear-cut top weapon on the outside.
Collins notably led Houston with 13 red-zone targets despite missing five games due to a hamstring injury. With Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs both out of the lineup due to severe knee injuries, Stroud may be willing to force-feed Collins the ball. The 6-foot-4, 222-pound pass-catcher should be poised to make a contested catch in the end zone this time after failing to do anything positive with his lone red-zone target against the Chiefs in Week 16.
Collins managed seven catches for 60 yards in that contest as a whole, demonstrating he has what it takes to occasionally beat Kansas City's defensive backs. As such, feel free to trust him to score if you don't want to take the longer shot on a player like Schultz (+475).
Xavier Worthy anytime TD (+210)
Worthy has slowly but surely developed into a quality weapon for the Chiefs during his rookie season. He could be on the verge of a superstar turn during the playoffs if his late-season chemistry with Mahomes can carry over.
There's a good chance of that happening against the Texans. Houston's defense played well at times during the 2024 NFL season but struggled to fully contain wide-outs, tying the Carolina Panthers with the second-most scores allowed to the position (21). Only the Atlanta Falcons (22) had more.
Worthy profiles as the type of receiver against which Houston has recently had trouble. He's not very big at 5-11, 165 pounds, but his game-breaking speed will test the Texans' defensive backs downfield and could allow him into the end-zone on a long score, just like Ladd McConkey got last week with the Chargers.
Worthy had seven catches for 65 yards and a touchdown in Kansas City's first matchup with the Texans, so don't be surprised if he matches or exceeds that stat line in the divisional round.