Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs: Early predictions, odds for AFC championship game
The Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs meet again in the AFC championship game.
For the fourth time in five years, Josh Allen and the Bills will have to get through Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs in the NFL playoffs. Mahomes is 3-0 in his previous postseason meetings with Allen, including a win in the 2020 AFC championship game. Kansas City is coming off a 23-14 win over the Houston Texans in the divisional round in its quest for a third-straight Super Bowl.
But the Bills handed the Chiefs their first loss of the regular season, getting a 30-21 win in Week 11 at Highmark Stadium when Allen turned a 4th-and-2 conversion into a game-clinching touchdown run. Buffalo is also where they just beat the Baltimore Ravens and Lamar Jackson in the other AFC quarterback duel every football fan wanted to see this postseason. The 2025 AFC championship game will take place at Arrowhead Stadium, where the Chiefs are undefeated this season.
This has the makings of an instant classic, with the Chiefs seeking history and the Bills hoping to slay a longtime nemesis. The spread suggests betting experts anticipate this much-discussed matchup will be a close one. Here's what else to know about the 2025 AFC championship game featuring the latest installment of the rivalry between the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs.
AFC championship predictions: Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Paste BN: Chiefs 26, Bills 22
"The Chiefs, who are undefeated at home this year, will get revenge in Kansas City. Mahomes, Kelce and Chris Jones, a trio bound for the Hall of Fame, will make game-changing plays and lift Kansas City to another Super Bowl. ... Mahomes enters the game 3-0 versus Allen and the Bills in the postseason."
Sporting News: Bills 28, Chiefs 26
"Kansas City has not committed a turnover in its past eight games, but the running game has been hit or miss with Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco. Buffalo was a 2.5-point favorite in the regular-season meeting, but that was at home. It's on Allen to end the Chiefs' playoff streak, and (the Bills) are due to finally pull out the victory. Allen and Mahomes put on a show, and this will live up to expectations. It is a lot to overcome with Mahomes' track record. This time, however, Buffalo finally knocks off Kansas City."
ESPN: Bills have 54.6% chance to win
According to ESPN's Matchup Predictor, the Buffalo Bills have a 54.6% chance to beat the Kansas City Chiefs in the 2025 AFC championship game.
Pro Football Network: Chiefs 27, Bills 24
"Patrick Mahomes may not dominate in the way we saw early in his career, but with the season on the line, he makes the plays more often than not. With Andy Reid, the Chiefs also have the head coach advantage, and their defense is more reliable than Buffalo’s."
Arizona Republic: Chiefs 31, Bills 28
"Can the Bills get past the Chiefs in the playoffs this time? It's not going to be easy. Kansas City is a perfect 9-0 at Arrowhead Stadium this season. The Bills are 5-4 away from Highmark Stadium this year. Josh Allen and company handed the Chiefs their first loss of the season in Week 11, 30-21, but that game was in Buffalo."
NFL playoffs 2025 odds, lines: Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs
The Kansas City Chiefs are slight favorites to defeat the Buffalo Bills in the 2025 AFC championship game, according to BetMGM.
Odds as of Tuesday, Jan. 21
- Spread: Chiefs (-1.5)
- Moneylines: Chiefs (-130); Bills (+110)
- Over/under: 47.5
How to watch Bills vs. Chiefs in the AFC championship game
- Date: Sunday, Jan. 26
- Time: 6:30 p.m. ET
- TV: CBS
- Stream: Paramount+, NFL+, Fubo (free trial)
- Where: Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City, Missouri)
Watch AFC championship game with Fubo
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