Chiefs vs. Bills best bets: Top player props, anytime TD scorer picks
The Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills are meeting in the playoffs for the fourth time in the last five seasons. This time, the winner of the game will earn the right to be the AFC's representative in Super Bowl 59.
The Chiefs are set to host the Bills in the AFC championship game in a matchup between the conference's top two seeds. Kansas City is hoping to make the Super Bowl for a third consecutive year while hunting for an unprecedented three-peat. Buffalo is looking to make it for the first time since it made four consecutive Super Bowl appearances 31 years ago.
Kansas City has bested Buffalo in each of their previous three postseason matchups. Will Josh Allen finally be able to drag the Bills over the hump, or will it be more of the same for one of the NFL's best current quarterback rivalries?
Either way, bettors will be happy to place some wagers on the AFC championship game, which will represent the penultimate game of the 2025 NFL playoffs.
What are the best bets for the Chiefs vs. Bills AFC championship game? Here's a look at the top player props and anytime TD scorers to back with a Super Bowl trip on the line.
AFC championship best bets: Chiefs vs. Bills
All odds are via BetMGM as of Friday.
Kareem Hunt OVER 34.5 rushing yards (-115)
The Chiefs signed Hunt early in the 2024 NFL season to provide backfield depth with Isiah Pacheco out of the lineup. The veteran has emerged as Kansas City's best back with Pacheco struggling to regain form after his broken leg. Hunt figures to continue out-working his counterpart during the 2025 NFL playoffs.
Hunt handled a team-high eight carries in the Chiefs' 23-14 divisional-round win over the Houston Texans. He could see an uptick in usage after averaging 5.5 yards per carry compared to Pacheco's 3.6 average on five carries.
In Hunt's first matchup against the Bills, he racked up 60 yards on 14 carries, looking solid against a Bills run defense that allowed the 16th-most rushing yards to running backs during the regular season. So long as the Chiefs aren't forced to abandon the run, Hunt should get the volume needed to eclipse his total easily, as he has done in three of his last four outings.
Dawson Knox OVER 14.5 receiving yards (-115)
The Chiefs have one weakness on their defense: they aren't very good at stopping tight ends. They allowed a league-high 1,191 receiving yards to tight ends in 2024 and allowed Dalton Schultz to go over his receiving total in their divisional-round game against the Texans.
Some will want to back Dalton Kincaid in this spot because of the Chiefs' struggles. That said, Knox looks like the better value given his lower over/under totals of 1.5 receptions and 14.5 receiving yards; Kincaid's sit at 3.5 receptions and 31.5 receiving yards, respectively, despite Knox out-snapping him in both postseason games to date.
Knox plays more because he's the better blocker of the duo. That doesn't necessarily lead to an abundance of targets, but as long as Knox stays on the field, he will be a threat to make a couple of catches and stretch the field as a vertical playmaker, much like he did when he made four catches for 40 yards against the Chiefs in Week 11.
Granted, Kincaid didn't play in Week 11, but Knox has still averaged 3.1 catches and 40.7 receiving yards during his career against the Chiefs. As such, the Bills should try to spark him early as they search for a way to beat their rivals.
Travis Kelce anytime TD scorer (+130)
Playoff Kelce is back and better than ever. After averaging just 51.4 yards per game and catching three touchdowns, both his lowest total since he was limited to one game as a rookie, Kelce broke out with a seven-catch, 117-yard performance against the Texans. He also found the end-zone for the second time in as many games.
Kelce seems poised to remain Patrick Mahomes' No. 1 target as the Chiefs take aim at a third consecutive Super Bowl. Buffalo has been middle-of-the-pack against tight ends but has allowed three touchdowns to the position over its last five games while allowing an average of 6.4 catches and 67 yards. Those numbers are eerily close to Kelce's totals of 6.5 receptions and 69.5 receiving yards, but betting him to score is the best way to back the star in this battle.
Josh Allen to score 2+ TDs (+650)
Betting Allen to score once (-110) seems like a no-brainer. Allen scored a rushing touchdown in seven of the nine games in which he has played more than one snap dating back to the Bills' Week 10 game against the Indianapolis Colts. Joe Brady won't be afraid to continue dialing up quarterback runs in the red zone with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line.
But could Allen find the end zone twice? It seems possible. The Chiefs have had their share of issues against mobile quarterbacks in 2025, giving up 434 rushing yards (seventh-most) and four rushing touchdowns (tied for eighth-most) league-wide this season. A chunk of that production came from Allen, who racked up 55 yards and a touchdown on 12 carries in Buffalo's Week 11 win over Kansas City.
Also helping Allen's case is that Kansas City has surrendered just nine touchdowns to running backs this season. That's good for the second-fewest in the NFL, so Allen may be required to bulldoze his way into the end zone if James Cook can't in a tougher matchup. At the very least, Buffalo's running backs aren't as likely to vulture Allen's potential rushing touchdowns, and the Bills will be more than willing to lean on the veteran quarterback as he looks to get Buffalo to the Super Bowl for the first time in 31 years.
All that's to say that the odds on this bet seem slightly longer than they should be. Thus, anyone looking for a longshot game for what profiles as the NFL's game of the weekend shouldn't be afraid to take a chance on Allen.