Super Bowl 2026 predictions: Latest expert picks after free agency
How have free agency signings affected the outcome of the 2026 Super Bowl?
Though free agency is still ongoing, the first wave is over. Many of the top free agents on the market have signed new contracts to find a home in the 2025 season. While a few big names still have yet to sign – looking at you, Aaron Rodgers – it isn't too early to make some predictions about next year's Super Bowl.
This year's champions, the Philadelphia Eagles, have brought back a rising star in linebacker Zack Baun, extended running back Saquon Barkley and poached a few more former Giants for good measure. The Kansas City Chiefs, 2025's runners-up, have done some re-tooling, most notably on the offensive line. Both are among the betting favorites to win a title next year.
But other teams around the NFL have made moves – big and small – to close in on contending for a Super Bowl title. Has it been enough, or are the Eagles and Chiefs destined to square off again in Super Bowl 60?
Super Bowl 2026 prediction: Post-free agency edition
The easiest option in making a Super Bowl prediction is to predict a rematch between the two teams that made it to the big game last year. But given that it has only ever happened once – Bills vs. Cowboys in 1993 and 1994 – it's just not realistic. It is very hard to make it to the Super Bowl once. To make it there twice in a row is much harder, regardless of how simple the Chiefs have made it look.
Roster turnover and changes in coaching personnel can make massive impacts year by year. The best any team can do is make educated guesses and safe bets on constructing a staff and roster that can compete.
That's why the 2025 offseason has been such a big success story for the Buffalo Bills and Washington Commanders. Each team had a season that ended in heartbreak on the brink of a Super Bowl appearance to break a long drought of conference titles. Then each team started the 2025 offseason maintaining its most important members of the coaching staff and fortifying its roster.
Buffalo gave Josh Allen a new, bigger contract after an MVP season and extended linebacker Terrel Bernard, wide receiver Khalil Shakir and defensive lineman Greg Rousseau. The Bills also brought in edge rusher Joey Bosa, defensive tackle Larry Ogunjobi, cornerback Dane Jackson and wide receiver Josh Palmer in free agency. None of the team's coordinators left for other jobs after an excellent season.
Meanwhile in Washington, the Commanders saw their contention window open with the outstanding quarterbacking performance of Offensive Rookie of the Year Jayden Daniels and are leaping at the opportunity to build around him.
They traded for left tackle Laremy Tunsil and wide receiver Deebo Samuel, brought back veteran playmakers like tight end Zach Ertz and linebacker Bobby Wagner, then signed free agents like defensive lineman Javon Kinlaw and cornerback Jonathan Jones to address roster weak points ahead of the draft. Like Buffalo, Washington didn't lose any of its coordinators either.
The consistency both teams are enjoying on their rosters and in their coaching staff can't be enjoyed by teams like the Lions, who lost both offensive coordinator Ben Johnson and defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn to head coaching gigs. Nor the Chiefs, who will need to overhaul their offensive line with the departures of left guard Joe Thuney and left tackle D.J. Humphries. The Eagles also just lost offensive coordinator Kellen Moore to a head coaching job in New Orleans.
Consistency is key when it comes to contending for a championship, and the Bills and Commanders have had that so far this offseason while also bringing in some necessary talent. There will be more opportunities for upgrades in the NFL draft come April, but for now, these two teams appear most ready to battle for a Lombardi Trophy next February.
The edge goes to Buffalo in the title clash because of the greater playoff experience on the roster. Once the Bills exorcise their demons (the Chiefs) in an earlier round, the sky's the limit with who they have playing quarterback. The Commanders are almost there, but they need to address some other gaps in the roster (cornerback, edge rusher) before they can raise a new championship banner at Northwest Stadium.
Super Bowl 60 prediction: Bills 27, Commanders 21
Super Bowl 2026 betting odds
DraftKings Sportsbook has updated its Super Bowl 2026 odds in the wake of all of the latest NFL free agency signings.
- Philadelphia Eagles: +650
- Kansas City Chiefs: +700
- Buffalo Bills: +700
- Baltimore Ravens: +700
- Detroit Lions: +900
- Washington Commanders: +1600
- San Francisco 49ers: +1900
- Cincinnati Bengals: +1900
- Los Angeles Rams: +2200
- Green Bay Packers: +2200
- Los Angeles Chargers: +2500
- Minnesota Vikings: +3000
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers: +3500
- Pittsburgh Steelers: +3500
- Houston Texans: +3500
- Denver Broncos: +3500
- Chicago Bears: +3500
- Seattle Seahawks: +7000
- Dallas Cowboys: +7000
- New England Patriots: +7500
- Miami Dolphins: +7500
- Atlanta Falcons: +7500
- Arizona Cardinals: +7500
- Jacksonville Jaguars: +11000
- Indianapolis Colts: +11000
- Las Vegas Raiders: +12000
- New York Giants: +15000
- New York Jets: +16000
- Carolina Panthers: +16000
- New Orleans Saints: +18000
- Tennessee Titans: +20000
- Cleveland Browns: +20000