UFL Week 1 picks against the spread: Can Stallions cover big spread to open 2025 season?
NFL fans have to wait a long time before the league returns to action, but the UFL is giving football fans an offseason oasis for a second consecutive season.
The 2025 UFL season is set to kick off on Friday, March 28 with a matchup between the St. Louis Battlehawks and Houston Roughnecks. That will begin the league's 12-week season during which eight teams will vie for a UFL championship.
There are plenty of reasons football junkies will tune into the UFL. Plenty of fringe NFL players will be in action while some former college stars like Kellen Mond will get a chance to prove their worth as potential NFL quarterbacks.
The product has been competitive, with many games being one-score contests. The league has also tested several innovations to its rules and technology that the NFL has adopted or considered in recent seasons.
And, of course, the league will also provide an opportunity for sports bettors to try to make some cash picking the winners of each game.
Who should you trust in the UFL's four Week 1 matchups? Here are Paste BN Sports' picks straight up and against the spread for the first week of the 2025 UFL season.
UFL picks against the spread
All odds from BetMGM Sportsbook.
St. Louis Battlehawks at Houston Roughnecks
- Spread: Battlehawks (-6)
- Moneyline: Battlehawks (-275); Roughnecks (+225)
- Over/under: 37.5
The result of this game will hinge on whether the Battlehawks can effectively replace AJ McCarron at quarterback and whether the Roughnecks can improve upon their last-ranked scoring offense from last season (15.8 points per game).
St. Louis is poised to trust Manny Wilkins and Max Duggan as its primary quarterbacks for the opener. Wilkins is in his third season with the team, so his experience in Anthony Becht's offense could allow for a seamless transition out of the two-year McCarron era. The Battlehawks have a strong, experienced receiver room, which could help mitigate any post-McCarron growing pains.
Meanwhile, Houston seems better positioned to find offensive success, especially if Nolan Henderson emerges as its starting quarterback. The Roughnecks averaged 20.7 points per game in the three contests where he threw 10-plus passes. Houston averaged 13.7 points per game in the contests where he threw four or fewer passes, meaning they were about a touchdown better with Henderson in the lineup.
With that in mind, it seems like Houston is ready to take a step forward while St. Louis is facing uncertainty. As such, backing the home underdog against the spread seems like a good move, even if the Battlehawks remain likely to win the game.
Prediction: Battlehawks 19, Roughnecks 17
San Antonio Brahmas at Arlington Renegades
- Spread: Brahmas (-3)
- Moneyline: Brahmas (-155); Renegades (+130)
- Over/under: 37.5
The Renegades went a disappointing 3-7 last season, but only two of their losses were decided by more than one score. They have Luis Perez returning at quarterback after he completed 67% of his passes for 2,310 yards, a league-high 18 touchdowns and just four interceptions, and as long as he's playing, Arlington will be able to stay in games.
The Brahmas had a great defense in 2024 under Wade Phillips and went 2-0 head-to-head against the Renegades, limiting Arlington to 15 points in both contests. Even so, Perez had a 104.37 passer rating across the two games, so he should perform well enough to keep the Renegades competitive in this one.
Additionally, San Antonio's offense is a question mark. They are breaking in a new quarterback in Kellen Mond, who has never played in the spring. The former Texas A&M starter and Minnesota Vikings draft pick has a solid, dual-threat skill set, but it isn't yet clear how he will fit in A.J. Smith's offense. That should give Arlington the advantage because of its offensive continuity.
Prediction: Renegades 21, Brahmas 16
Michigan Panthers at Memphis Showboats
- Spread: Panthers (-3.5)
- Moneyline: Panthers (-185); Showboats (+150)
- Over/under: 37.5
The Showboats enter this game in a state of turmoil. The team's new head coach, Ken Whisenhunt, stepped away from the team on eve of the season for personal reasons. That will leave offensive line coach Jim Turner as the interim head coach.
Whisenhunt was also Memphis' offensive coordinator, and they were set to break in a new, full-time starting quarterback. Troy Williams was the team's only returning quarterback while E.J. Perry and Dresser Winn are also fighting for playing time. That task gets a lot harder with Whisenhunt gone.
Add in the continuity Michigan is enjoying, with Mike Nolan entering his third year as head coach and second-year quarterbacks Danny Etling and Bryce Perkins set to lead the team's offense, and the Panthers have the upper hand in this matchup.
Prediction: Panthers 23, Showboats 13
Birmingham Stallions at D.C. Defenders
- Spread: Stallions (-7)
- Moneyline: Birmingham (--375); Defenders (+300)
- Over/under: 40.5
Like the Showboats, the Defenders have also lost their head coach on eve of the season. Reggie Barlow took the coaching job at Tennessee State; as a result, quarterback coach Shannon Harris is set to take over the team.
The good news for D.C. is that Harris has been with the team for multiple seasons. That should allow returning quarterback Jordan Ta'amu a chance to avoid any pitfalls with the change, though there still may be some growing pains.
That said, this contest was going to be difficult for the Defenders even with Barlow. Skip Holtz has a 26-4 regular-season record coaching the Stallions and Birmingham has arguably the most loaded roster in the league. Matt Corral, Alex McGough, C.J. Marable, Jace Sternberger and Deon Cain represent just a handful of the team's offensive weapons.
The only question is about how Birmingham will fare without defensive coordinator John Chavis in tow. He always got the most out of their stop unit, so Corey Chamblin will have to make sure there's no drop-off as he replaces the veteran coach.
Even with that minor concern, it's impossible to recommend picking against the Stallions. They are the class of the UFL and it will take a lot to unseat them from their perch atop the league.
Prediction: Stallions 28, Defenders 20