49ers Christian McCaffrey and Brock Purdy's MVP odds have skyrocketed after 5-0 start

Everyone knew the San Francisco 49ers were going to be good this year. They've reached the NFC Championship game two years in a row, and full years from both Christian McCaffrey and Brock Purdy were only going to help.

Nobody expected the level of dominance we're seeing from them right now though, and it is forcing sportsbooks to drastically shift the pair's MVP odds after just five weeks.

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How have their odds changed?

At the start of the season, Brock Purdy was given very little chance to win MVP. BetMGM listed Purdy at +2500 odds at the start of the season, tied with Geno Smith. McCaffrey was given +10000 odds, which was great for a non-quarterback, tied for the best of any non-quarterback actually, but was basically irrelevant. When even Mac Jones (+6600 at the start of the season) has better odds than you, you're pretty much being given no chance.

After Week 5 though, FanDuel lists their odds at +700 for Purdy and +2000 for McCaffrey. That puts Purdy tied for fourth with Josh Allen and McCaffrey tied for seventh with Baltimore's Lamar Jackson and Jacksonville's Trevor Lawrence.

The case for Brock Purdy

Counting their 42-10 victory over the Dallas Cowboys, Purdy now has nine touchdowns, 1,271 yards, and zero interceptions on the season. He's also rushed for two touchdowns as well. He is in the top-ten in the league in every major passing category, and leads the NFL in passer rating (123.1; minimum 20 attempts) and is second in completion percentage (72.1 percent; behind only Buffalo's Josh Allen). The real case for Purdy as the NFL MVP though stems from him simply being the quarterback of an undefeated team.

This 49ers squad is crushing their opponents mercilessly. Only one game has been a one-score affair, and that was only because the Rams decided to kick a field goal as time expired in Week 2 to cut the Niners' lead from ten to seven. Since the AFL-NFL merger in 1966, no team has won at such a rate as the 49ers. Even the 2007 New England Patriots, who ended the season undefeated, only won their games by an average of 19.69 points. Through five weeks, the 2023 San Francisco 49ers are winning by an average of 19.8 points. The 2023 Buffalo Bills are the closest in the league this season, and they're still a full four points behind at 15.8.

The case for Christian McCaffrey

Most Purdy doubters pin most, if not all, of his success on the star-studded cast around him, and McCaffrey is the poster child.

He has scored at least one touchdown in 14 straight games. He leads the NFL in rushing yards, is tied for the NFL lead in rushing touchdowns, and has added 168 yards and a touchdown through the air. He has undoubtedly been the best, if not most vital (Purdy might hold that distinction), player on arguably the league's best team.

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What are the chances either player wins MVP?

Purdy is on pace for just 30 passing touchdowns. That would be the fewest since Peyton Manning in 2008, when he threw 27 (excluding Adrian Peterson's 2012 MVP for obvious reasons).

Now, that doesn't mean Purdy couldn't win MVP. After all, Philadelphia's Jalen Hurts finished second in MVP voting just last year with only 22 passing touchdowns. However, that Eagles team was the NFL's top seed, and Hurts added 760 rushing yards and 13 rushing touchdowns to his resume. Purdy won't come anywhere close to those rushing numbers. "But what about the lack of interceptions?" you might be thinking. That's true, but it means practically nothing compared to team record and total yards and touchdowns.

Then, there's McCaffrey.

In order for a non-quarterback to win MVP, they need to have a historic season. McCaffrey has done that before. In 2019, he became just the third player in NFL history to garner over 1000 rushing and receiving yards in the same season. That said, he didn't receive a single vote. In order for a non-quarterback to win MVP, a record must be broken. The most likely one for McCaffrey at this point, is probably the touchdown record.

Through five weeks, McCaffrey has eight touchdowns, putting him on pace for 27 on the season. That's great, but would be tied for third all-time with Priest Holmes (2003). Still behind Shaun Alexander (2005) and LaDainian Tomlinson (2006).

While both Tomlinson and Alexander took home the MVP hardware at the end of their seasons, Holmes did not. He didn't even finish top-three. McCaffrey is currently on pace for more rushing yards, but fewer receiving yards than Holmes, and Holmes accomplished his feat in just 16 games. All that said, as great as McCaffrey has been, he'd have to be even better for a shot at MVP.

All this is to say that while the 49ers have been great, the only thing currently keeping Purdy and McCaffrey in the MVP conversation is the 49ers' dominance. I hesitate to think they'd both be receiving this kind of praise if the team was 3-2, or even 4-1. If the 49ers finish the season undefeated, Purdy would almost certainly win MVP. You have to if you go the whole year without suffering a loss. That said, a lot has to go right for the rest of the season if either player wants a chance at the award, and, barring either player kicking their performance into an even higher gear, I don't think it will all fall perfectly into place.

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