Here's how the Broncos can keep their playoff hopes alive
ENGLEWOOD, Colo. — Win or else. And come on, Patriots.
There are no more playoff scenarios worth considering except for this: If the Denver Broncos don’t defeat Kansas City at Arrowhead Stadium on Christmas Night, they will be eliminated from the playoffs.
How did the Broncos’ situation become so grave? The Broncos entered this season as the defending Super Bowl champs and they started 4-0 with wins against Carolina and Indianapolis at home, Cincinnati and Tampa Bay on the road.
As it turned out, Carolina (6-9), Indianapolis (7-7) and Cincinnati (5-8-1) weren’t who we thought they were. And the young Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-7) didn’t come on until after they played the Broncos.
The Broncos routed the Bucs, 27-7, in Game 4 at Tampa thanks in part to a stellar NFL debut by Paxton Lynch. Since that game, Tampa Bay has gone 7-4 while the Broncos have gone 4-6. And Lynch struggled in his next two chances to play.
With the Miami Dolphins defeating the Buffalo Bills, 34-31 in an overtime thriller Saturday, the AFC’s two wild-card spots already have two teams with 10 wins. That means the 8-6 Broncos must win their next two games — Christmas Night against the 10-4 Chiefs and New Year’s Day at home against the 12-3 Oakland Raiders — to have a tiebreaker’s chance of extending their playoff streak to a sixth consecutive season.
And even then, complicated tiebreaking procedures may keep the Broncos out of the playoffs at 10-6. It appears bleak for the Broncos but they can resuscitate hope by defeating the 10-4 Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium.
Here’s what the Broncos must do:
1. Stay together
Lose the pointed fingers, guys. Just a guess but there may be two or three drives in a row when the Broncos’ offense stalls and has to punt. And there will be a couple times when the Chiefs drive for a score. Let us guys in the press box criticize. Teammates should only encourage each other.
2. Don’t quit
It’s difficult for a Broncos’ team that has owned a first-round playoff bye four years in a row to fight to the end for a No. 6 playoff seed. But if the Chiefs get up early in this game, even if they’re up two scores late in the third quarter, the Broncos can pull it out. Chiefs coach Andy Reid is notorious for conservative play-calling when he has the lead. And Broncos’ quarterback Trevor Siemian is capable of getting hot when confronting a hurry-up, all-pass quandary.
3. Protect the ball
Whenever two evenly-matched teams play, turnovers are the difference about 85% of the time. Thunderstorms are supposed to roll in overnight but the rain may stop by the 6:30 p.m. kickoff. A slick ball means a tight hold, wrap and tuck are a must. An offense with 250 yards but no turnovers may be better than 350 yards and two turnovers.
4. Block Justin Houston
The Chiefs’ best pass rusher has only four sacks in an injury-plagued year, but three came four weeks ago in a game against the Broncos. Right tackle Ty Sambrailo gave up two of those sacks before he was replaced by Donald Stephenson in the second quarter. Stephenson returns to his first NFL home to anchor the right tackle spot.
5. Siemian self protects
The Broncos have allowed 40 sacks in 14 games, which is tied with Indianapolis for third-most in the league. Only the sad-sack Browns (51) and Buffalo with scrambling-running quarterback Tyrod Taylor (41) had allowed more entering Week 16. The Broncos supposedly didn’t have a good offensive line last year, either, but Peyton Manning and Brock Osweiler were sacked a more respectable 39 times in 16 games to rank 13th in the league. Some of Siemian’s sacks have been the so-called “coverage” sacks so he can save himself some punishment by getting rid of the ball quicker.
6. Remember the stars, Emmanuel and Demaryius
In their previous game against Kansas City a month ago, Emmanuel Sanders had seven catches for 162 yards. He may get the safety-over-the-top respect this time, so a single-covered Demaryius Thomas might be the big-play target.
7. Big game from Von Miller
The last time these teams met, Miller had 3.0 sacks. He has 1.0 sack in his three games since, none in the last two games as he’s either been double-teamed, or quarterbacks like Tom Brady have gotten rid of the ball before Miller could say one-thousand-two. Chiefs QB Alex Smith will get rid of it quickly, too, but in big games, the best players must play big, anyway.
8. Force Tyreek Hill to fumble
The electric Hill burned the Broncos a month ago with nine catches, including a touchdown, one rushing carry that went for a touchdown, and one free kick return, which went for an 86-yard touchdown.
But Hill has fumbled four times, and twice in the last two games. He’s only lost one but as the Broncos remember from Trindon Holliday, once a returner starts losing confidence in ball security, the fumbles are more apt to happen.
9. Win the running game
It’s far from likely the Broncos will have a terrific running attack against the Chiefs. Not when their best running back, Justin Forsett, is 31 and has been cut three times by two teams. And the Broncos will have to play this game without their best blocking tight end, Virgil Green, who is down with a concussion.
Even when healthy, the Broncos rank 27th with 91.3 rushing yards per game. But the Chiefs only rank in 23rd with 100.5 yards per game and that’s despite having a quarterback who can run in Alex Smith.
Defensively, both teams struggle to stop the run. The Chiefs rank 28th by allowing 124.7 yards per game while the Broncos are 29th, surrendering 127.9 rushing yards per.
When these teams met a month ago, the Broncos rushed for 124 yards on 3.3 yards per carry; Kansas City had 83 yards on 3.2 yards. The Broncos will take a repeat on Sunday night. Only this time they need to finish.
Or else.
MIke Klis writes for KUSA, a TEGNA property.
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