Murray Magic: Can Kyler find groove with Arizona Cardinals?

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There’s one play from last season that the Arizona Cardinals' quarterbacks coach wants to highlight.

It’s nine months later now, but Israel Woolfork is leaning against a concrete wall beneath State Farm Stadium, letting his mind wander back to another moment inside this building. The kind of moment that makes all these endless practices and film sessions mean something.

It was Monday Night Football last year, Week 7, against the Los Angeles Chargers. Cardinals ball, first-and-10, at their own 45-yard line. One minute, 45 seconds remaining. A one-point deficit. Everything in the balance.

The play was designed for a deep pass to permeate Chargers territory. Los Angeles, though, played it perfectly. Kyler Murray’s top three options were all covered.

It was the type of situation that, for the better part of six years, might have flummoxed Murray. Maybe he would’ve taken a sack, or worse.

Not here. Murray worked through his progressions and recognized that the smart option was a checkdown to James Conner. His running back did the rest by shedding two tackles and moving the ball into field goal range, essentially winning the game for the Cardinals. Afterward, Conner was hailed as the hero, and rightfully so.

But to Woolfork and those inside the Cardinals building, this was also about Murray. It was a microcosm of everything he’s worked on and what it means for the Cardinals' offense.

“The guys that are the greats do the boring stuff very well,” Woolfork said.

That’s why this one play is relevant so many months later.

Murray is 27 now, entering his seventh season. He has the perspective to describe a previous version of himself. That version, the one who came into the league back in 2019, didn’t fully grasp the virtue of plays like that checkdown to Conner. In high school and college, he could almost always make something more exciting happen.

“You kinda get away with doing stuff, trying to do too much,” Murray said. “It doesn't bite you in the ass like it does in the NFL.”

When Woolfork and offensive coordinator Drew Petzing arrived in 2023, they drove this point home. The best quarterbacks, like Tom Brady and Drew Brees, are the ones willing to make simple plays, Woolfork would explain to his new pupil.

“It’s boring, doing the right (stuff) over and over again,” Murray said. “I would say that’s probably the secret. … Don’t get bored doing that.”

The proof of Murray’s development is in his production.

In 2023, Murray targeted running backs on 13.8% of his passes and averaged 3.3 yards on those attempts, per Warren Sharp. Those numbers ranked 42nd and 45th, respectively, among 48 qualified quarterbacks.

In 2024, it was a completely different picture. Murray targeted running backs on 23% of his passes and averaged 7.3 yards on those attempts, both ranking seventh among 48 qualified quarterbacks. He led the league in yards on checkdowns, per Fantasy Points Data.

That carries a stigma in barroom debates, but it’s a necessary part of being a good quarterback. Josh Allen, Joe Burrow and C.J. Stroud all ranked inside the top 10.

“He knows where all his outs are in case things hit the fan,” Woolfork said. “And also, I think his knowledge of defenses has grown. So he's not up there guessing. He knows exactly what the defense is doing.”

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For the Cardinals, that helped set an offensive floor. They finished 11th in the league in both yards and points per game. Murray had his best season since 2021.

Yet, it felt unsatisfying at times. That’s because Murray suddenly has a new issue — one few would have expected early in his career. He has not been able to generate explosive plays. Last season, the Cardinals produced just 43 pass plays of 20-plus yards, the seventh-fewest in the NFL.

That’s antithetical to the vision of Murray as a hyper-talented human highlight reel. Early in his career, he was one of the league’s better deep passers. But since 2022, that version has only shone through in spurts.

You might remember the spinning, juking escape before his touchdown pass to Elijah Higgins against the Rams, or the handful of gorgeous touchdowns to Marvin Harrison Jr. But the numbers tell a different story. On passes thrown at least 10 yards downfield, Murray averaged just 9.4 yards per attempt — 28th among starting quarterbacks.

“We've shown flashes,” Murray said. “The highest of the highs with the best of them. But we've gotta continue to do it each and every game.”

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In Woolfork’s mind, the fix here goes back to decision-making. If Murray can make the right decisions with even more consistency, Woolfork believes the Cardinals can force defenses out of the two-high safety looks that are designed to take away deep passes.

And Murray, for all his growth, certainly hasn’t been perfect with the mental side. Late last season, the Cardinals' playoff hopes evaporated, in part, because he put the ball in danger.

Against the Seahawks in Week 14, he threw two interceptions, including one directly at a linebacker over the middle of the field. Against the Panthers two weeks later, he threw an interception into triple coverage after looking off an open Trey McBride. Flip those two losses, and the Cardinals would have made the playoffs. Sometimes, the margins are that narrow.

But on the macro level, defenses did not play particularly cautiously against Murray.

When defenses are afraid of being beaten downfield, they sacrifice numbers in the box — between the tackles, close to the line of scrimmage — and play with two high safeties. The Cardinals played against light boxes at the 20th highest rate and against two high safeties at the 12th highest rate. Neither indicates that defenses feared the Cardinals' passing attack.

And when Murray did get advantageous looks, he was merely average. Teams like the Eagles and Ravens used their dominant ground games to draw defenders close to the line of scrimmage and then decimate them with well-timed deep shots. The Cardinals, who also had an elite rushing attack, did not punish overly aggressive defenses in the same way.  

That’s not to say the Cardinals were ineffective through the air. They ranked 14th in expected points added per dropback and 16th in yards per attempt. Before wrapping up a recent interview, Woolfork made sure to point out that their offense finished 11th in total yards.

“We don't care how it looks,” Woolfork said, “whether it's James Conner running for 200 yards or whether it's Kyler for 400 yards.”

Maybe the Cardinals can get where they want to go with the league’s 11th-best offense. But Murray has been clear about his ambitions.

“The goal,” he said, “is to go win a Super Bowl.”

That would likely require an elite offense. To make that a reality, Murray will need to match his newfound decision-making prowess with his bygone explosiveness.