Opinion: Colts must sit Carson Wentz to keep 2022 first-round draft pick
The Carson Wentz experiment was fun while it lasted, wasn’t it? We’ll always have that Bomb Cyclone in San Francisco, and those victories over a bad team from Miami and a worse one from Houston. But we’re reaching the point where this experiment needs an expiration date, and while that date cannot be Thursday against the New York Jets for obvious reasons – the Colts have obviously screwed up their quarterback room beyond recognition – this experiment needs to end soon.
You know it and I know it, and you know the Philadelphia Eagles are terrified right now, because it’s not just the Colts’ future riding on this decision; the Eagles are invested heavily as well. It’s because of the trade that brought Wentz here, and while this contractual stuff can make your eyes glaze over, bear with me for one moment. This is important:
The Colts acquired Wentz in February for a third-round pick in the 2021 NFL draft, and a first-round pick in 2022.
Unless.
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If Wentz plays less than 75% of the Colts’ offensive snaps this season, that first-rounder in 2022 becomes a second-rounder.
Translation: The Colts need to sit Wentz at least four games, five to be safe, to keep a bad trade from becoming worse. Otherwise, after losing the 2021 season thanks in part to this Carson Wentz experiment, they’ll start their rebuild behind schedule by missing out on their 2022 first-round pick. And at this rate, thanks to the implosion of the Carson Wentz experiment, that pick – currently ninth according to tankathon.com – will be a pretty damn good one.
You know what the Colts need to do, and they’re shaking in Philadelphia, but here’s where this story turns positive. Because I have good news … for Philadelphia.
The Colts have a track record of taking an obviously bad situation and making it worse.
Carson Wentz: Adam Vinatieri 2.0?
Talking about Adam Vinatieri, obviously.
You remember 2019, when Vinatieri – arguably the greatest kicker of all time – was having one of the worst seasons in recent NFL history. But the Colts kept Vinatieri around. Some would say they’re exceptionally loyal, a nice way of saying the Colts will cut off their nose to spite their face, then look at the mirror and say: Well aren’t you a handsome face, even if you are missing a nose. And a kicker.
And a quarterback.
The Colts needed to cut ties with Vinatieri early into that disastrous 2019 season, and given the benefit of hindsight, they know it now.
So here we are with Carson Wentz, and you wonder if the Colts will repeat their Vinny mistake. Stop wondering, I’d suggest. The Colts were loyal to Vinatieri because he was a legend, and had done great work here. Wentz is neither, but he has two even more devastating factors in his favor:
Colts coach Frank Reich loves him like a son, dating to their Philadelphia days.
General manager Chris Ballard staked his reputation to bringing Wentz here.
Meanwhile, the 2021 NFL playoffs are almost out of the question. Look, never say never and all that. The Colts are 3-5, three full games behind the Titans – four, counting the head-to-head tiebreaker that’s already been decided for Tennessee – which means the AFC South is probably gone, though Derrick Henry's likely season-ending injury will be a factor.
That leads us to Thursday night, too quick a turnaround for the Colts to pull the plug on Wentz, assuming they had the stomach to do it, and the replacement quarterback ready to go.
The Colts have neither.
Colts QB room is a joke
First, a word about Carson Wentz:
He played four straight great games from Oct. 3-24, completing 68.1% of his passes for 1,003 yards, eight touchdowns and zero interceptions for a 119.5 passer rating. The Colts went 3-1 in those games, and should’ve beaten Baltimore in that Monday Night Football collapse. If that’s who Wentz is, well sure, you play him all season and send the Eagles the first-round pick and consider yourself the winner of that trade. Because a 119.5 passer rating is MVP material, and would be fourth on the NFL’s single-season list.
But Wentz isn’t that guy.
He’s a disaster waiting to happen, like those two interceptions he threw Sunday to let this must-win game against Tennessee slip away, and that interception or fumble or whatever the officials finally called it in San Francisco, when the Colts had the ball at the 49ers’ 4-yard line and Wentz, in the rain and on the run, tried to shovel the ball to safety and shoveled it right to the 49ers.
We knew coming into the season that Wentz was capable of that. He has the fearless creativity of Brett Favre, but the hopeless ceiling of Jared Goff. It’s a bad combination, and over time we’re seeing the complete Carson Wentz experience, and it’s nauseating. On the season he’s completing 62.2% of his passes for 1,926 yards, 14 touchdowns, three interceptions and a 96.3 passer rating, and while those numbers look good – that 14-to-3 TD/INT ratio looks beautiful – his numbers are declining and even misleading, and this is the stat that explains it best: The Colts are 3-5.
His best play the last two weeks? An underthrown deep ball that draws a pass interference. He’s done that four times for 161 yards, leading to three of the Colts’ last eight touchdowns.
To repeat: Carson Wentz’s most reliable recent play is a mistake.
On the bright side, his four-year, $128 million contract through 2024 isn’t as daunting as it looks. There are no salary-cap ramifications – no “dead cap” hit in 2023 or ’24 – if he’s released after the 2022 season. The Colts aren’t married to the guy long-term, I’m saying.
But they are for Thursday, and perhaps the rest of the way in 2021, because of their atrocious handling of the most important position in football. Never mind acquiring Wentz, with his injury history and all the other baggage he brings. (Here’s the only place I’ll mention his vaccination status.)
The Colts’ butchery of their backup quarterback spot has been breathtaking. They went into training camp with all-arm, no-vision, zero-experience Jacob Eason as their clear No. 2, then added washed up veteran Brett Hundley after Wentz suffered a broken bone in his foot the first week. The main snaps went to Eason and rookie Sam Ehlinger, who were competing for the backup job, because Hundley was brought to camp only as an extra arm.
Look where we are. Until he was released and signed to the practice squad Monday, the washed-up veteran, the camp arm – Brett Hundley – had been the backup for weeks. Eason was released. Ehlinger has been injured, though he’s off the Injured Reserve list and in theory could play.
Is that what any of us want to see? Rookie Sam Ehlinger, a sixth-round pick coming off a strained ACL, starting at quarterback? Probably not.
But it sounds better than Brett Hundley.
This is the Colts’ quarterback situation. Wentz has the talent but not the discipline to lead them anywhere. Hundley had no talent. Ehlinger has no experience. But someone needs to replace Wentz so the Colts, already in a lost season, don’t lose their first-round pick in 2022.
It’s a circular nightmare, that hellish spot where Dante’s Divine Comedy meets his Inferno, and it’s the Colts’ fault. They did this to themselves. The rest of us are stuck watching a quarterback whose best play is a pass thrown so poorly that it works out, which at this point probably describes the only way the Colts get out of their godforsaken quarterback room alive.