The Carson Wentz dilemma: Should Colts trade for, sign or draft a QB? Or keep the one they have?
Carson Wentz had a chance to lead his team back and win a game. His coach had been waiting for this opportunity and the Colts suddenly needed Wentz, down 13 in the third quarter in Jacksonville. So the Colts quarterback dropped back and fired a sideline route past the first-down marker and into a player’s hands.
The problem was that player was Jaguars linebacker Myles Jack.
As Jack ran it back, reality started to set in: The end was coming to the Colts’ 2021 season and playoff dreams.
But could it also be the end for Wentz?
That’s the question Indianapolis will wrestle with this offseason. It will lead off every interview and seep into the trade market, free agency and the draft.
It’s the question Colts coach Frank Reich wouldn’t directly answer in multiple tries in two news conferences following the 26-11 season-ending loss.
“Next year’s roster will be next year’s roster,” Reich said.
But he admitted this wasn't good enough. The passing game is his area, and it topped 200 yards twice in the final eight games. He was defeated over how it ended their season.
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That Reich wouldn’t go to bat for Wentz, for whom he pounded the table for both the Philadelphia Eagles and the Colts to spend a first-round pick on, is significant.
On the surface, Wentz threw 27 touchdown passes to 7 interceptions. The deeper numbers are the bigger concern, like finishing 19th in yards per attempt, a number Reich holds in high regard. He was not able to take advantage of the lightened coverages that came with playing with Jonathan Taylor.
It’ll be a long offseason of evaluation for everyone, but the door is cracked for an exit.
If they want to.
If they can.
Option A: Trade for another quarterback
First things first: How the Colts approach Wentz's contract will define the timeline.
Wentz has three years remaining at an average of $27 million per season. Only $15 million of it is guaranteed right now. So here’s how the timeline looks:
- If the Colts cut him before March 19 (third day of free agency), they’ll owe $15 million for 2022 and $0 beyond that
- If they cut him after March 19, they’ll owe $28 million for 2022 and $0 beyond that
- If they trade him to another team, they’ll owe $0. This option is incredibly unlikely, save for one possibility we’ll explore later.
Based on this, it’s safe to say the Colts will try to decide on any veteran options by that March 19 date. If they are moving on from Wentz, they have to do so as painlessly as possible.
That means the next two months will be time to explore the trade market as they did last year. The names that will float are enormous, from Aaron Rodgers to Russell Wilson to DeShaun Watson.
Watson and his legal issues -- 22 civil suits have been filed that accuse him of coercive and lewd sexual behavior, two that allege sexual assault -- will not be an option for a franchise with the priorities and leaders the Colts have. Blockbuster trades don’t happen within the same division anyway.
Every team with any need at quarterback will place a call on Rodgers and Wilson, who combine for 17 Pro Bowl selections. If either moves, it’ll be to the top bidder, and the Colts don’t have a first-round pick in 2022 thanks to the Wentz deal. They can’t move their 2024 first-rounder until the day of the draft.
They can’t compete with teams such as the Carolina Panthers, Denver Broncos or Miami Dolphins for players like these.
The best name mentioned after those has been Derek Carr, who would be a fantastic fit with his dynamic leadership and cool-under-pressure personality. But he just led the Las Vegas Raiders to the playoffs and appears locked in with the franchise.
Kirk Cousins could hit the market if the Minnesota Vikings' new management isn't smitten with him, but he comes with a $35 million cap hit, which would mean spending $50 million on the position for 2022. The Colts came close to that number in 2020, dropping $46 million on Philip Rivers and Jacoby Brissett, but they had more cap space overall back then.
Others who could be available include former top-10 picks such as Baker Mayfield and Tua Tagovailoa. Both have played some winning football but both have warts to fix in Mayfield's turnovers and Tagovailoa's lack of downfield success. Trading for either is trying a Wentz-like experiment over again.
Another option is Jimmy Garoppolo, who just led the San Francisco 49ers to the playoffs. He has a 67.7% career completion percentage, a 33-14 starting record and 8.4 career yards per attempt but has missed so many games with injuries that he's always a risk. He also comes with a $25 million price tag.
What the Colts have to decide here is whether it’s worth draining more draft capital for an audition at the most important position.
Option B: Sign a free agent
The Colts are currently projected to have more than $40 million available to spend this spring. They can afford a $15 million cap hit in order to sign a replacement, depending on his market.
The free-agent options aren’t as attractive as those on the trade market. They include Jameis Winston, Nick Foles, Cam Newton, Marcus Mariota and Teddy Bridgewater. They are five incredibly different options, at least.
Like Wentz, Winston is a top-five pick with prototypical build and a big arm but a knack for folding in the biggest moments. He is coming off his best stretch, with 14 touchdowns and three interceptions and a 102.8 rating with the New Orleans Saints, but he tore his ACL and MCL just seven games in.
Bridgewater is the opposite kind of player. He’s incredibly safe, with a career 66.5% completion percentage but only 71 touchdowns in 63 career starts. He is the polar opposite of Wentz, and maybe the Colts can trust him more. But like Winston, he struggles to move away from pressure, which is to be expected off the Colts' left side.
If the Colts want a mobile option, Newton or Mariota could be options, but they leave plenty to be desired as passers. Newton isn't accurate, with a 59.9% career completion rate. Mariota isn't aggressive. Both could elevate a running game with Jonathan Taylor, but it's hard to see either adding the dynamic passing that's been missing.
Foles has the familiarity, having won a Super Bowl with Reich and Colts wide receivers coach Mike Groh on the Eagles staff in 2017, when he threw for nearly 1,000 yards in the postseason. He's done little outside of that playoff run and is turning 33.
Would Ballard or owner Jim Irsay let Reich gamble again on a personal relationship at the most important position?
Option C: Draft a quarterback
Reich and Ballard are entering their fifth year working in tandem in Indianapolis. If they move on from Wentz, they will have their fifth starting quarterback in five years.
That’s partly because they’ve never drafted and developed one who wasn’t backup material. This could be the year to try something different.
It’s also perhaps the worst year for them to do so.
They don’t have a first-round pick, thanks to the Wentz deal. The quarterback class is considered one of the weaker ones in recent memory. And teams very rarely find and commit to a locked-in starter in the second round.
That doesn’t mean good ones can’t come after the first. Wilson was a third-round pick. Kirk Cousins came in the fourth round. Jalen Hurts was a second-round pick. But none were players their teams planned on becoming starters when they drafted them.
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This year, Pittsburgh’s Kenny Pickett, Mississippi’s Matt Corral and North Carolina’s Sam Howell are often the top three options in mock drafts, sometimes slipping out of the top 10 and sometimes not. Cincinnati’s Desmond Ridder and Liberty’s Malik Willis also have some first-round buzz.
Quarterbacks tend to elevate as the draft nears. Wentz’s meteoric rise in 2016 shows that. It makes it a tough market to peg ahead of that March 19 date for a team that doesn’t have a first-round pick.
If the Colts go this route, it’s likely in tandem with a veteran. That could be one of the free agents, or it could be one final option.
Plan D: Keep Wentz ... for now
The conversation around Wentz is so negative after his late-season collapse kept the Colts from reaching the playoffs, but he has a lane to remain the starter, for two main reasons.
The first is practicality: The Colts will pay him $15 million this year whether he plays or he doesn’t. Affording alternatives isn’t easy without a first-round pick. Affording one and the needed upgrades at wide receiver, left tackle, tight end and pass rush are even harder to envision.
The second is upside: Yes, Wentz collapsed in the second half and brought all of his old demons out along the way. But the Colts also didn’t go all-in during free agency to build this team to be a playoff contender.
Perhaps it’s time to try.
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Indianapolis is projected to have more than $40 million available. It might need to replace T.Y. Hilton and Jack Doyle if they retire, and options at those positions look more than plentiful with potential names such as Allen Robinson, Michael Gallup, Mike Gesicki and Dalton Schultz.
Wentz threw for 27 touchdowns to just seven interceptions this season. It’s a misleading line given his 6.9 yards per attempt and the number of interceptions he had dropped. But it wasn’t terrible overall. It lacked production as time wore on, as the Colts finished as the only NFL teams without multiple players with at least 395 receiving yards.
Michael Pittman Jr. had 1,082 yards and six touchdowns, and Taylor led the NFL with 1,811 rushing yards and 18 rushing touchdowns. Both are entering their third season. If the Colts can better patch the holes at receiver and left tackle, it’s not hard to see the offense with Wentz taking a step forward, which means getting the Colts into the playoffs.
That could make 2022 another evaluation year for Wentz, or just a year that buys time to find the assets for right fit for a replacement or to develop a rookie from this year's draft.
Of course, Wentz had trouble looking over his shoulder with shaky job security in Philadelphia. His confidence doesn’t seem high right now, as he showed when asked if he believed in the Colts as a Super Bowl-caliber team.
“It’s a great question,” he said. “Still kind of hard to think forward like that. Lot of reflection…
“I have the utmost confidence in this organization, the players, the way it’s built, the way it’s wired. It’s a great group, but it’s hard to think forward like that.”
The odds are that the Colts will bring someone in beyond Wentz. It’d be a hard sell to Irsay, to the fans and to the Colts locker room to run back the same passing game that torpedoed a team with seven Pro Bowlers this season.
But finding the right player, making him affordable but not a stopgap while deciding if he can coexist with Wentz are the dynamics that make this a fascinating and terrifying offseason for the Colts.
The jobs of almost everyone involved depend on getting it right.
Contact Indianapolis Colts insider Nate Atkins at natkins@indystar.com. Follow him on Twitter @NateAtkins_.