Colts GM Chris Ballard doesn't panic, but it's almost time to do that | Opinion
INDIANAPOLIS – You’d like to see Chris Ballard panic, wouldn’t you? What would that look like, anyway? We’ll probably never find out, because Ballard – general manager of the Indianapolis Colts, as you know – is calm, methodical, a turtle in a league of panicky hares, tucking his head inside his shell and trudging along.
The rest of us, or at least most of us – some of us, anyway – believe in his methods. You can look at the Colts’ record since he arrived before the 2017 season, 41-40 overall with two playoff appearances in five years, and argue against his methods. We’ve talked about this before, right? That no matter how hard we try to make it so, no matter how easy it simplifies things, the world is not as simple as win or lose. There are details to acknowledge, nuances to understand, but for some people that’s just too difficult.
For the rest of us, or at least most of us – some of us, anyway – we realize the unexpected retirement of franchise quarterback Andrew Luck two weeks before the 2019 season, in a league determined almost completely by its quarterbacks, set this franchise back, sent it flailing for answers that still haven’t come.
Well, maybe flailing is the wrong word. Chris Ballard doesn’t panic, and he doesn’t flail. Next time you see a turtle flail, put that video on social media. It’ll go viral, cute little turtle, moving so slo-o-owly and flapping those leathery legs like a crane on cold medicine.
OT CHANGES: 'Traditional football' is still the ticket in (potentially) tweaking NFL’s overtime rule
NFL's CRAZY OFFSEASON: What's driving trend of blockbuster trades?
A flailing turtle sounds almost dangerous, doesn’t it? Ballard has never been one to get dangerous at quarterback. He’s always saying drafting the wrong QB would mean this: “I’ll be the first one run out of the building.” He’s right, so he plays it safe, waiting for veteran answers at quarterback and taking what comes: Philip Rivers, then Carson Wentz, now Matt Ryan.
He’s also been waiting for answers this offseason, longer in some spots, at receiver, left tackle, right guard and tight end.
The rest of us, at least most of us – OK, all of us – are waiting for those answers too.
Check your watch. See what it says?
It’s almost time to panic.
Grading Colts GM Chris Ballard
It’s important to see the big picture, and by that I mean the whole picture, as we evaluate Colts GM Chris Ballard. Which is what we’ll do now, briefly, before going farther.
The whole picture includes the Colts’ 41-40 record since 2017, the quarterback problems Ballard has faced, the solutions he has offered. It includes his swings and misses in the draft and other acquisition methods, and his home runs. Spoiler: He’s had both.
Most GMs will make some bad draft choices – where are Ballard's first two picks from 2017, safety Malik Hooker and cornerback Quincy Wilson? – and they’ll strike out on other acquisitions. Looking at you, Wentz. And your buddy Eric Fisher. Those two played quarterback and left tackle. Bad spots in the lineup to whiff. Ballard did that.
But Ballard has selected three eventual All-Pro players in five drafts (Quenton Nelson, Darius Leonard, Jonathan Taylor), and acquired one via trade (DeForest Buckner) and another as an undrafted free agent (George Odum). He also acquired one eventual Pro Bowl player on waivers (Kenny Moore), and signed another in free agency (Eric Ebron).
Add that up. Seven Pro Bowl players – five of whom made All-Pro – in five years? That’s not just good. That’s sensational.
Ballard found some of those with patience, acquiring Moore and Odum for next to nothing, and adding Ebron in free agency at a bargain price.
But the others came on hard, bold swings. Oh, Ballard can do that. Just not very often. In 2020 he traded the Colts’ first-round pick for Buckner, then traded up in the draft, while Cleveland was on the clock at No. 41 overall, to get that pick and choose Taylor. In 2018, he used a second-round pick on someone most of us had never heard of, South Carolina State's Leonard.
And of course, the way the Colts ended up with Quenton Nelson in 2018. Ballard traded the No. 3 overall pick to the New York Jets for their No. 6 overall pick and three second-rounders. He shocked the experts by taking a left guard sixth overall, then used one of those second-rounders on another guard, Braden Smith of Auburn. Stunning, start to finish, but it worked. Turns out, Smith was headed to right tackle. And Quenton Nelson is headed to the Pro Football Hall of Fame.
When Ballard goes for it, it works.
Dammit, why isn’t he going for it now?
How patient are we supposed to be?
Colts needs: WR, TE, WR, LT, WR...
Ballard is confident, bordering on cocky, but pulls it off. He knows he’s good at his job, doesn’t pretend otherwise, and doesn’t believe anyone who disagrees. He’ll say things like, “I don’t care what everybody thinks and what their opinions are,” and things like, “Lord knows I haven’t been perfect” – and he’ll say those things five minutes apart.
Ballard remembers suggestions made over the years by Colts reporters (and columnists, ahem), and he’ll mock us with brutal sarcasm:
“We’re not just going to go sign a free agent cause y’all are clamoring for them,” he said shortly after the 2021 season ended. “I think we know some of the suggestions in the past. Those would be really good.”
Around this time last year, the 2021 NFL Draft was over and I wrote a story under the headline: “The NFL draft is over, the Colts still don't have a LT, and I can't explain it either.” Next time I spoke with Ballard, and it didn’t take long, he was teasing me, letting me know he had a plan. And he did: Nine days later, the Colts signed Eric Fisher.
That was a patient move – Fisher had been released nearly two months earlier by Kansas City – but in hindsight, the only way to reasonably grade such things, Ballard would’ve been better off panicking. He had the No. 21 and No. 54 overall picks in the 2021 NFL Draft, and could’ve packaged them (with more picks perhaps, who knows?) to move up and select Northwestern left tackle Rashawn Slater. He went 13th overall to the Los Angeles Chargers, and made Pro Bowl as a rookie. The Chargers have their left tackle for a decade. The Colts have defensive ends Kwity Paye and Dayo Odeyingbo. Knowing what we know, right now, who would you rather have?
Meanwhile, the Colts have just one receiver they know they can rely on next season, Michael Pittman Jr. Just one. Maybe they can rely on Ashton Dulin in a bigger role, or Parris Campbell to stay healthy, or for the lightbulb to click for Dez Patmon and Mike Strachan. But maybe not.
Ballard’s obviously waiting for the 2022 NFL Draft, without a first-round pick, believing there will be plenty of receivers available starting at No. 42 overall. Better be. The Colts need several.
But they also need a tight end and a left tackle, unless the Colts seriously believe they can entrust the health of the statuesque Matt Ryan – and therefore their entire 2022 season – to Matt Pryor at left tackle. If that’s what the Colts believe, well, God bless ‘em. And God bless you, Matt Ryan.
Ballard could have overpaid for a receiver or a tight end – with the Colts' considerable cap space, he could’ve overpaid for a receiver and a tight end – but he doesn’t overpay. That’s a sign of panic, and Ballard doesn’t panic. He’s the tortoise, remember? Let other teams be the hare.
Then again, this is the NFL.
And speed wins.
Find IndyStar columnist Gregg Doyel on Twitter at @GreggDoyelStar or at www.facebook.com/greggdoyelstar.