Lucky Week 13: Jameis, Stafford, Rex and a hex
A quick preview as Week 13 rolls on in the NFL …
Who’s hot
Jameis Winston. The past two weeks, the Tampa Bay Bucs’ second-year quarterback got the best of the NFL’s stingiest defenses in winning against the Kansas City Chiefs and Seattle Seahawks. Now he’s challenged to win on Philip Rivers’ home turf. The Bucs (6-5) have had an improbable spurt to get into the playoff picture, but that’s exactly where they are with the three-game winning streak they’ll take to San Diego for Sunday’s game. Winston’s had some help, with the Bucs' defense allowing an NFL-low 10.7 points per game during the streak and running back Doug Martin getting into a flow after finally getting healthy. But Winston has done his part, too, improving his efficiency and continuing to seize on his connection with Mike Evans. Just as revealing, he’s playing his part as the face of a hungry team. Earlier this season, Winston gave each of his teammates a copy of a letter that he wrote to express his gratitude for the position he’s in to lead a franchise. And after a humbling loss against Atlanta in Week 9 left the Bucs at 3-5, he proudly declared that he’s no “loser.” And the Bucs haven’t lost since.
Pressure’s on
Jeff Fisher. The Los Angeles Rams coach may be safe from the firing line, given the franchise’s relocation, the rebuilding around rookie quarterback Jared Goff and the affinity that team owner Stan Kroenke has for his hand-picked choice. But the noise is getting louder with Fisher taking a 4-7 squad into Foxborough, given the flap that has unfolded with Rams legend Eric Dickerson revealing that Fisher called to tell him he wasn’t welcome on the sideline at the Coliseum because of Dickerson's public criticisms of the team. What a bad look for a franchise trying to drum up support in a new (old) market. And Fisher’s results – he’s staring at another losing season after declaring in a training camp moment captured on Hard Knocks that he wouldn’t stand for another mediocre finish – would fuel pressure on its own.
Key matchup
Julio Jones vs. Marcus Peters. Jones had just four catches last weekend against Arizona, but Matt Ryan still lit up the dome by connecting with eight targets to demonstrate a certain versatility with the NFL’s highest-scoring offense. The Chiefs — with a big-play defense that leads the NFL with 24 takeaways — might address one threat by assigning Peters on Jones. But there’s a ripple effect. The Chiefs must also come up with answers for dealing with Ryan’s increasing comfort in throwing elsewhere. About 25% of Ryan’s completions go to his running backs, which means Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman are poised to put pressure on the safeties in the middle of the field and the linebackers who are such dominant pass-rushers.
Rookie watch
Malcolm Mitchell. The New England Patriots are forced to reinvent themselves on offense in the face of all-world tight end Rob Gronkowski’s season-ending back surgery. Chalk it up as another challenge for Bill Belichick. Mitchell, a fourth-rounder from Georgia, has emerged as a legit option in the past two weeks (nine catches, 140 yards, three TDs) after catching just seven passes in the first 11 games. He’ll likely see a bigger role now, providing that he maintains the trust he’s developing with Tom Brady, who has seen his share of new receivers through the years. Mitchell can stretch the field, and adds a size dimension to a wideout group containing the pint-sized Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola. With Gronk and Martellus Bennett, the Patriots ran two-tight end packages on nearly 40% of their snaps (the NFL’s second-highest rate to Tennessee’s 43%), but that option is basically kaput now. Brady’s passing prowess is built from the inside-out, so he’ll still search for answers on the seam routes where Gronkowski has been so dangerous. Likewise, running back Dion Lewis figures to have an expanded role.
Next man up
Paxton Lynch. With Trevor Siemian scratched by a sprained foot, the Denver Broncos rookie quarterback makes his second pro start when he heads to Jacksonville. Although the Jags have lost six in a row, this is hardly an easy assignment. Jacksonville’s defense ranks sixth in the NFL in yards allowed. A key will be whether Lynch demonstrates growth in the awareness department. In his first pro start, a Week 5 loss against Atlanta, Lynch was sacked seven times and hardly helped his overmatched O-line by holding the ball for too long. So consider the clock in Lynch’s head as an X-factor.
Stomach for an upset?
Bills at Raiders. Talk about a Black Hole. The Buffalo Bills haven’t won in Oakland in 50 years, since Jack Kemp was slinging it. Go ahead, Rex Ryan, take your shot. To snap the five-game winning streak carried by the red-hot Raiders (9-2), the Bills need to play their ground-and-pound game to perfection. Buffalo (6-5) has the NFL’s worst-ranked passing attack, but also a No. 1-ranked rushing offense that will be crucial to an upset. The Bills defense, meanwhile, will be challenged to get to MVP candidate Derek Carr — whose quick release complements an O-line that has allowed an NFL-low 13 sacks. And if Carr has time, it’s trouble for a battered secondary that will be charged to contain big-play receivers Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree, and minimize the big plays that have been an issue, Then there’s Oakland’s last-minute magic. Carr is the NFL’s top-rated fourth-quarter passer (121.3) and for all of its woes, the Raiders D has been a different unit with the game on the line. If the Bills are really a legit playoff contender, now comes the time to prove it.
If the playoffs were today …
The Detroit Lions (7-4) would claim the franchise’s first division title since 1993. Bu there is work to be done. They seem poised for a shootout at New Orleans on Sunday, and have other difficult road assignments ahead at Dallas and at the New York Giants. While Matthew Stafford is flourishing under coordinator Jim Bob Cooter (and without Calvin Johnson), it has been too close for comfort. The Lions have trailed in the fourth quarter in every game, and are the first to have each of their first 11 games decided by seven points or less. That tightness seems fitting for the division race, with the Minnesota Vikings (6-6) and Green Bay Packers (5-6) positioned to overtake Detroit if it slips up.
Did you notice?
Since Miami Dolphins running back Jay Ajayi broke on the scene with back-to-back 200-yard games, he’s had just one 100-yard game and seen his rushing totals decline in four consecutive games. Now comes a matchup at the Big ATM on Sunday against Baltimore’s No. 1-ranked run defense. Miami, carrying the AFC’s longest winning streak at six games, has shown it can win in ways beyond getting monster games from Ajayi. Either way, the battered O-line hopes to be reinforced with the expected return of No. 1 pick Laremy Tunsil and Branden Albert.
Stat’s the fact
The heavy investment the Giants made in their defense during the offseason is paying off, as they carry a six-game winning streak into Sunday’s showdown at Pittsburgh. One of the best indicators comes from the pass rush. After posting just four sacks in their first five games, the G-men have collected 21 sacks in the past six games – including the 5½ in the past two games from Jason Pierre-Paul. Now comes a test against one of the NFL’s most explosive offenses, and one of the toughest quarterbacks to bring down in Ben Roethlisberger.