Bell Tolls: Tom Brady's MVP campaign could gets critical test against Broncos
A quick read previewing Week 15 in the NFL:
Who’s hot
Tom Brady. Can a player miss a quarter of the season and still win the NFL’s MVP award? We’ll find out soon enough as the Patriots quarterback – who, incidentally, moved into the top slot of Paste BN’s MVP Tracker poll this week after stinging the Ravens for 406 yards and 3 TDs on Monday night – is having arguably the most efficient season of his 17-year career. If Brady’s NFL-best 113.6 passer rating held up, it would be the second-best mark of his career after the 117.2 number during the Randy Moss-aided, 50-TD campaign in 2007 that was his most prolific season. Yet this season’s distinction for efficiency includes Brady quickly finding a groove after returning from his four-game Deflategate suspension, throwing just two picks so far, and now inspiring New England’s charge to reinvent the offense after losing Rob Gronkowski for the season.
Sunday’s showdown at Denver will be a striking litmus test to illustrate just how playoff-ready Brady and the Patriots – who, with a victory, can set an NFL record by winning an eighth consecutive division title – are after dominating the AFC East again. It’s fitting that Denver’s the place for a potential record. There’s been no worse place for Brady to play than Denver, where he’s 2-7 in his career (including playoffs). On the last visit, when Brady had a season-worst 56.4 passer rating in the AFC title game in January, the lasting impression was how the Broncos defense punished him with four sacks and, according to press box stats, 17 quarterback hits. Sure, with Von Miller leading the charge, Brady wasn’t the only one treated in such a manner by Denver’s defense. Yet the game also exposed the weakness of an injury-weakened Patriots O-line. It was undoubtedly the last straw that prompted Bill Belichick to lure long-time O-line guru Dante Scarnecchia out of retirement to rebuild the unit. There’s progress. New England’s 21 sacks allowed is tied for seventh-fewest in the league. Now let’s see how the revived line holds up and how Brady handles a Broncos D that still has many of the key components who caused such trouble the last time. It might be the difference for whether Brady’s play can convince MVP voters to still consider him for the award despite missing so much time -- on top of the actual Deflategate punishment and all that it implied for a philosophical debate about MVP worthiness.
Pressure’s on
Hue Jackson. The Browns (0-13), heading into Buffalo, have three more cracks at avoiding the distinction of becoming the second team after the 2008 Lions to go winless in a 16-game season. Given team owner Jimmy Haslam’s pledge to establish continuity with his brain trust, Jackson isn’t believed to be in jeopardy of losing his job after one season. But after flirting with victories in several games earlier in the season, that hasn’t been the case lately. Cleveland has been outscored 48-6 in the first halves of their past three games, which is not the ideal formula for snapping a losing streak. Then there’s the guarantee of the week, as Bills D-tackle Marcell Dareus went way out on a limb to declare that there’s no chance the Browns will get their first victory against his team.
Key matchup
Odell Beckham, Jr. vs. Darius Slay. With two of the NFL’s stingiest defenses in recent weeks sharing the stage at MetLife Stadium, the high-stakes Lions-Giants clash has the look of a tight matchup that could be determined by one big play. Beckham, New York’s star receiver, demonstrated that with a 61-yard catch-and-run TD off a slant route against the Cowboys last weekend that marked his NFL-high 10th score of 50-plus yards since he entered the league in 2014. It figures that Detroit’s best cornerback, Slay, will draw extensive assignments to try to contain Beckham. And he will be pressed for consistency, because one slip-up in covering Beckham and he will make you pay with the long-distance strike.
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Rookie watch
Anthony Brown. Ezekiel Elliott and Dak Prescott have been the faces of Dallas’ surge this season, but the sixth-round cornerback from Purdue has also had a significant impact. Pressed into duty early this season as an injury fill-in, Brown has logged six starts while playing on the outside and in the slot. He impressed coaches with his ball skills early on, but as the season has progressed he’s proven to be more physical than expected (5th on the team with 54 tackles). Still, he’s a marked man as opponents are routinely testing him deep. He’s holding up. Brown says he’s been targeted for 12 deep shots to this point and he allowed just one completion in those situations – the 67-yard TD by Washington’s DeSean Jackson from Kirk Cousins on Thanksgiving. Certainly, the tests will keep coming.
Next man up
Matt Moore. With Ryan Tannehill’s sprained left knee injury forcing him to miss the first game of his career on Saturday night – and probably more – the Dolphins (8-5) are banking on the backup quarterback as they continue their playoff push. The good news is that Moore, a ninth-year pro, has been there before. Although it’s been a while since he’s been in the role, he’s logged 25 career starts. Ironically, Moore’s last start came nearly five years ago against the next foe, the Jets, when current New York coach Todd Bowles was Miami’s interim coach. Interestingly, though, this is the first time Moore makes a start for a team with a winning record. And an added twist came earlier this week when his wife delivered the couple’s third child. Moore is gung-ho with veteran savvy, but this is hardly the same situation he's used to playing in.
If the playoffs were today…
The Broncos (8-5) would be in as the sixth seed in the AFC, ticketed to defend their Super Bowl crown as a wild-card entrant. Yet to maintain or improve that slot over the next three weeks, Denver must survive the toughest three-game slate to close the regular season by an NFL team since 1978. All three of the Broncos’ remaining foes have won at least 10 games, with the Patriots (11-2) visit on Sunday followed by a trip to Kansas City (10-3) and a regular-season finale against Oakland (10-3). Since starting the season 4-0, the Broncos – with a depleted offense quarterbacked by first-year starter Trevor Siemian – are 4-5. With a crowded field of 8-5 and 7-6 teams in the mix, Denver might also become the first defending Super Bowl champ since the 2013 Baltimore Ravens to miss the playoffs.
Stomach for an upset?
Titans at Chiefs. Last month, Jameis Winston went into Arrowhead Stadium and snagged a win. Now it’s Marcus Mariota’s turn to try bucking the trend at such a tough venue for young quarterbacks. The Chiefs are one of the hottest teams in football. They hold the AFC West lead, are riding a three-game winning streak and are 20-3 in regular-season games since Week 7 of 2015. Yet for a defense that thrives on big plays (the Chiefs are tied for the league lead with 25 takeaways), there appears to be a soft spot. Kansas City ranks 27th in the NFL for run defense, allowing nearly 123 yards per game. This suggests a good matchup for the Titans (7-6), who are supporting Mariota with the third-ranked rushing attack fueled by DeMarco Murray (2nd in the NFL, 1,135 yards) and a physical O-line. Maybe that will be the ticket for a shocker.
Did you notice?
In his first two full games after suffering a dislocated pinky finger on his throwing hand, Raiders quarterback Derek Carr completed just 47.3% of his passes. Through Week 12, when he was injured, he was 10th in the NFL with a 66.4% completion rate. While the freezing conditions at Kansas City last week loomed as a factor for his 17-for-41 night, it was also noticeable that the finger wasn’t as thickly taped as it was four days earlier against Buffalo. Then there were the drops. Carr is not the only one in silver-and-black with questions about a hand or hands. According to analytics site Pro Football Focus, the Raiders head into Sunday’s game at San Diego leading the NFL with 34 dropped passes – including four at Kansas City.
Say what?
“I want a chance to play the Rams.” – Jeff Fisher, dumped by the Rams this week, declaring during an interview with Fox Sports that he intends to land another NFL coaching job and will have a special motivation against one particular opponent.
Stat’s the fact
Chiefs star Travis Kelce has posted four straight 100-yard games, which ties the NFL record for consecutive triple-digit games by a tight end. Jimmy Graham did it twice (2011, 2013), while the magnificent Tony Gonzalez was first to achieve the mark in 2000.