Opinion: Bills QB Josh Allen poised for his next big test, and it's a tough one
A quick read on items of interest heading into Super Wild-Card Weekend in the NFL…
Who’s hot: Josh Allen. During the six-game winning streak that Buffalo carries into the franchise’s first home playoff game in a quarter-century, the Bills have averaged 36.5 points per game. That’s yet another reflection of Allen's dramatic improvement this season, which pushed him into the MVP conversation. Allen passed for more than 4,500 yards with 37 touchdowns, while running for eight more scores and adding a receiving TD.
The numbers say much about the additional layer of polish for the third-year pro, who has impressed with his command of the nuances. Sure, it helps to add a phenomenal playmaker to the mix in Stefon Diggs, but somebody had to throw all of the passes that allowed Diggs to lead the league with 127 catches.
Yet another measure looms to assess Allen’s progression on the NFL learning curve as the gritty Colts come calling at 1 p.m. ET on Saturday. In his first playoff start last year, the Bills squandered a 16-point lead in falling at Houston in overtime — and Allen contributed to the meltdown by coming unglued in key moments. Now, as Buffalo looks to snap a six-game playoff losing streak, comes a chance to make amends. As Allen put it this week, “Without failure, people don’t know success.”
Believe him when he contends that the playoff loss fueled the fire that resulted in the MVP-type improvement this season. Besides, Peyton Manning and Dan Marino can relate. The record-breaking quarterbacks lost their first playoff starts, too, en route to Hall of Fame careers.
Pressure’s on: Alex Smith. It’s challenging enough that the Washington quarterback is pressing on through a calf injury that limits his mobility. Even worse, Smith will face a Todd Bowles-coordinated Bucs defense on Saturday night that tied for fourth in the NFL with 48 sacks and probably blitzes more than any unit in the league. Mobility matters. With Smith limited, raw, unproven Taylor Heinicke took extensive reps with the first-team offense in practices during the week, while Washington coach Ron Rivera maintained that he would consider rotating his quarterbacks. That’s less strategical wrinkle, more emergency option.
Key matchup: Jalen Ramsey vs. DK Metcalf, Round 3. The Seahawks’ big-play wideout has gone five consecutive games without a 100-yard performance and three straight without scoring a touchdown. And now comes his toughest matchup in Ramsey, arguably the NFL’s best cornerback. In the first two games this season, Metcalf not only didn’t crack 100 or score a TD, he didn’t even have a 20-yard reception.
Ramsey shut down Metcalf in L.A.’s November win, limiting him to two catches, 28 yards. In late December, it was six catches, 58 yards. Metcalf (83 catches, 1,303 yards, 10 TDs) does much of his damage by beating defenses over the top or by taking short passes and turning them into big gains by breaking tackles. But the yards have been so hard to come by against the NFL’s top-ranked defense and the physical, fiery and ultra-competitive Ramsey.
Next men up: Mike Priefer and Alex Van Pelt. It’s a tough break that Browns coach Kevin Stefanski — who guided Cleveland to its first playoff berth in 18 years to accent a remarkable debut season — will miss Sunday night’s clash at Pittsburgh after contracting COVID-19. Priefer, the special teams coordinator, will serve as interim coach while Van Pelt, the O-coordinator, will call the plays for Baker Mayfield, Nick Chubb, et al.
Van Pelt, who broke into the NFL as a Steelers backup quarterback in 1989, certainly has gained significant experience during his coaching journey to be prepared for this moment. And working alongside Stefanski in preparing game plans each week, there won’t be an issue in knowing the depth of the offense. Yet the rub could come with the nuances and in choosing which play at what time, in flowing with pressure-packed situations.
Rookie watch: Chase Young. The projected NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year fired off a warning shot to the legendary Bucs quarterback, declaring, “Tom Brady, I’m coming.” Uh-oh. It’s reminiscent of the time then-Steelers safety Anthony Smith taunted TB12 with pregame bulletin-board material, only to get lit up by Brady when the action spoke louder than words.
We’ll see if this amounts to a rookie lesson for Young, who has been spectacular in meshing with the other young talents on Washington’s D-line. Of course, for the WFT to have a prayer, Young & Co. must bring the serious heat in a matchup that should lend opportunities as Brady often holds the ball longer than he used to. He waits on his star receivers to work potentially lethal deep routes, reflecting Bruce Arians’ “No risk it, no biscuit” philosophy.
Stomach for an upset: Colts at Bills. If the Colts (11-5) can play a whole game like they played the first half at Pittsburgh in Week 16, Buffalo might be in for a shock against a six-point underdog. Naturally, veteran Philip Rivers brings something to the table with all of his playoff experience. But he has some notable help. There are two AFC Player of the Month honorees for December in tow, in D-tackle DeForest Buckner and running back Jonathan Taylor, coming off a 200-yard game and the NFL’s leading rookie rusher.
Taylor certainly could be a huge swing factor against a Bills run-defense that has had its lapses. And the reigning AFC Defensive Player of the Week? Another Colt, tackling machine linebacker Darius Leonard. Bottom line, as the honors indicate, the gritty Colts will be bringing some talented playmakers who might swing the difference.
The road to the Super Bowl goes through … Nashville. That’s where the Titans will be waiting for the Ravens, the dangerous wild-card entrant nobody wants to play. It’s fitting that to realize visions of making a run to the Super Bowl, Baltimore must first prove that it can handle 2,000-yard rusher Derrick Henry in a matchup of run-heavy, 11-5 teams. In last year’s divisional round upset and in an overtime thriller in November, King Henry only rushed for 328 yards on 58 carries (5.7 per rush), including a 29-yard walk-off job in OT; and in the playoffs last year supplied an ultimate highlight with his stiff-arm of Earl Thomas on a 66-yard run and passed for a “gotcha" TD. Yeah, the two-time defending rushing champ is the player that no defender wants to see in the open field.
Did you notice? Rivera was the last coach to take a team to the playoffs with a losing record, back in 2014 when he guided the Panthers (7-8-1) to a division crown. Now he’s at it again with the WFT, which claimed the NFC East with a 7-9 finish. In goes-around, comes-around fashion, fate would have it that Riverboat Ron’s matchup on Saturday night comes against a Bucs team coached by Arians — whose 2014 Arizona squad lost to Rivera’s team in the wild-card round.
Stat’s the fact: Rams defensive tackle Aaron Donald, tied for second in the NFL with 13 1/2 sacks, has posted 85 1/2 regular-season sacks since entering the league in 2014. Sine the sack became an official stat in 1982, only Reggie White (110) and Demarcus Ware (99 1/2) produced more sacks in their first seven seasons than Donald.