NFL first-quarter review: Breaking down wide-open NFC race, plus potential breakouts and flops
The first quarter of the NFL season is now in the books, and while much can change over the course of the next 12 weeks, this picture is starting to take shape in many areas.
But at the same time, a lot of questions remain.
Here’s a look at some of the key areas that could carry major impacts as the season continues to unfold.
• The NFC is wide open: The pack is thick, but it could take a while to sort out.
It’s pretty clear that in the AFC, it’s the Patriots, the Chiefs and everybody else. None of the other 14 teams currently seem capable of reaching their elite level of play, though there's plenty of time left. So it increasingly feels as though it's just a question of whether the conference championship game will take place in Kansas City or in Foxborough.
Meanwhile, there’s no clear-cut leader in the NFC yet. Entering Week 5, seven teams had three wins apiece. There isn’t a super team among that pack. For every sign of promise, each of those teams has also displayed a degree of vulnerability, whether in the area of performance, cohesion or health.
If not for Drew Brees’ thumb injury, the Saints very well could have gotten off to a perfect start. It looks as if Teddy Bridgewater will manage to play at a level to help New Orleans tread water long enough until Brees returns. The Rams — despite still ranking among the top teams in the conference — have appeared disjointed, dropping consecutive games to the Buccaneers and the Seahawks, as they try to avoid falling prey to that Super Bowl hangover.
Meanwhile, the resurgent Packers, a gritty Seahawks team, a Bears squad fueled by a dominant defense and a hungry Cowboys team all seem equipped to challenge within the conference. The 2-2 Eagles also should not be overlooked. They have losses to Atlanta (1-3) and Detroit (2-0-1), but they looked like a playoff team in a big win at Green Bay in Week 4.
This conference could be in for a dogfight in December.
Week 5 picks: Cowboys or Packers in battle of 3-1 teams?
• Potential breakouts: Strong initial statements by these players and teams seemingly are a sign of bigger things to come.
Lamar Jackson — No player has displayed more dramatic signs of growth. When he took over as the Ravens’ starting quarterback in the second half of his rookie season, Jackson scared teams with his legs, but they didn’t have to worry much about his passing. But in the early stretch of his second season, Jackson looks like a legitimate dual threat. He's completing nearly 65% of his passes while ranking among the league's best in quarterback rating (109.4). He hasn't had to run as much as last season, but Jackson remains just as potent on the ground. As a result, Baltimore looks like a contender in the AFC North.
Shaquil Barrett — For five seasons, Barrett put up pedestrian numbers (14 sacks) in limited work with the Broncos. But after signing a one-year deal with Tampa Bay this offseason, the linebacker is enjoying a career season. Thriving in Todd Bowles’ system, Barrett has nine sacks, three forced fumbles and an interception in four games.
Terry McLaurin — A third-round pick out of Ohio State, McLaurin has surprised many by making an impact as a well-rounded receiving threat. He's effective as both a possession receiver and a deep threat while averaging 85.7 yards per game. With three touchdowns on the season, McLaurin is the lone bright spot on Washington’s offense.
Gardner Minshew and Kyle Allen — Injuries to Nick Foles and Cam Newton should have spelled doom for the Jaguars and Panthers. Instead, these young backup quarterbacks have played surprisingly well, keeping their teams in contention. Minshew Mania has received more recognition thanks to the rookie’s throwback fashion sense, but with seven touchdowns and just one interception, he has reason to carry himself with a swagger. Meanwhile, Allen has helped direct the Panthers to a pair of road wins.
49ers — They haven’t been perfect. They’ve committed too many turnovers on offense. However, the 49ers have certainly made significant strides in Year 3 under Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch, and they’ve managed to overcome self-inflicted wounds to remain perfect out of the gates. A strong defense and potent running game have helped ease pressure on Jimmy Garoppolo as he continues to work his way after missing the bulk of last season with a torn anterior cruciate ligament. They certainly appear to have the makings of a contender, but the next two weeks will be telling. They have their first prime-time game on Monday, hosting a rebounding Browns team, and then they face the NFC West-rival Rams in Week 6.
10 BIGGEST DISAPPOINTMENTS SO FAR: Jared Goff, Kirk Cousins floundering
FOOTBALL FIX: NFL news delivered to your inbox
• Potential flops: We thought they’d be good this year, but …
Falcons — There’s no bigger head-scratcher in this early stretch of the season. Despite boasting a full arsenal of weapons on offense and some pretty stout defenders, the Falcons have stumbled out to a 1-3 start. Matt Ryan is tied for the league lead in interceptions. Their run game is inconsistent, and their pass rush is feeble. Management locked up key players to handsome contracts, but so far, they’re still waiting on a return on those investments. With the Saints seemingly unfazed by Brees’ injury, Allen keeping the Panthers afloat and Jameis Winston displaying some growth under Bruce Arians, Atlanta could find itself in an inescapable hole very soon.
Vikings — Last season, they saw Kirk Cousins as the quarterback who would put them over the top. A year later, the Vikings have real problems. Adam Thielen is publicly undressing his quarterback for missing him on potential big plays while also calling out the coaching staff for a heavy run emphasis. Meanwhile, fellow wide receiver Stefon Diggs appears to be sending signals he wants out. The Vikings are 2-2, with those losses coming to divisional foes Green Bay and Chicago. Minnesota certainly has pounded the football, as Dalvin Cook is on pace for a 1,600-yard season. But Thielen has been targeted only 22 times through four games instead of the 54 he had at this time last year, and Diggs just 19 as opposed to 44. The reduced targets probably wouldn’t be as frustrating if Cousins would capitalize when opportunities are available. Instead, he has lacked the effectiveness and aggression that the Vikings had hoped for in Year 2 of that three-year, $84 million deal. Now, that 2017 NFC Championship Game appearance with Case Keenum at the helm feels very far away.
Follow Mike Jones on Twitter @ByMikeJones.
If you love talking football, we have the perfect spot for you. Join our Facebook Group, The Ruling Off the Field, to engage in friendly debate and conversation with fellow football fans and our NFL insiders.