Malik Willis is NFL draft's ultimate boom-or-bust prospect – but there's path to success for QB | Opinion
When the 2022 NFL draft kicks off April 28, the league and its fans figure to witness a rarity. For the first time in five years, a quarterback doesn’t project to go first overall. And it’s possible that, for the first time in a decade, a player at the league’s premier position might not hear his name called within the first 10 picks.
This year’s quarterback draft class seemingly lacks that surefire, top-tier talent. But intrigue remains, largely because of the imbalance between demand and supply, with as many as six teams with potential long-term quarterback needs and only a few passers considered worthy of first-round grades.
Many NFL talent evaluators view Liberty’s Malik Willis, Mississippi's Matt Corral and Pittsburgh's Kenny Pickett as the leading prospects, but the rankings awarded to those three vary.
Willis just might be the most fascinating because he boasts an enticing set of physical skills, which make for a high ceiling. The Atlanta native also is poised to enter the NFL with a series of question areas that could limit his potential. As a result, Willis very well could offer the biggest boom-or-bust potential of any quarterback in recent years.
"There is incredible upside, but there is a low floor," former NFL quarterback Chris Simms, now an analyst for NBC Sports, told Paste BN Sports. "This isn't a guy that we could plug in and play right away. I do think there will be a little bit of a learning curve. … I really like his skills and talent better than Kenny Pickett.
"Some of his skills that he needs to fix, they are real. And it’s not like they’re the easiest fixes in the world either, and that’s why you feel like you need to see it before you can 'OK, yes! He can do it. He’s got this.' "
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Simms’ assessment echoes that of multiple NFL draft scouts, who offered assessments on the quarterback while speaking anonymously to avoid telegraphing draft plans.
Because Willis seemingly encompasses the full spectrum when it comes to potential, there’s conflict when it comes to projecting where he should and will go in the draft. As high as No. 2 to Detroit? In the teens to a team like New Orleans? Later in the first to a squad like Pittsburgh?
Because of his athleticism, arm strength and play-making ability, some NFL scouts compare Willis to the late Steve McNair – a big-armed quarterback with good mobility and strength, making him tough to bring down either in the pocket or as a runner. However, at just over 6-0 and 225 pounds, Willis is a little smaller than the 6-2, 230-pound McNair was.
Talent evaluators also love Willis’ magnetic personality and his natural leadership skills and ability to motivate those around him.
But Willis remains rather raw as a passer because of his limited experience in a pro-style offense. If not armed with the right coaching staff and supporting cast, and if not afforded ample time to develop before being thrust into a leading role, insiders worry he could join a long list of once-highly-touted prospects turned NFL busts.
Explaining the areas that most earnestly need addressing, Simms explained, "The pure pocket element of playing quarterback. He’s tough. He’ll stand in the pocket and not worry about the rush, and he can make the big-time throws with people all around him, and he can make throws off his back foot, and he can throw a 25-yard out route with ease and throw a laser, and that’s great. But it's very limited in that you don’t see a lot of realistic NFL type throws where you see him go through the field with reads.
"I’m not saying he can’t. But it’s rare. You see a lot of look at one guy, lock on that and throw it. Some of it’s not his fault. Some of it is. He’s got a great arm to where it’s like he says, 'I can always fit that in there.' And there are certainly plays where the first read isn’t there so he does move, because he’s a good athlete. He’s had that all his life, and now that’s about to change now that he’s in the NFL, because you’re not always able to get away just because you’re a great athlete."
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In addition to the need for fluency at working through progressions, Willis also has displayed struggles in his accuracy, something he’s aware of. However, since the conclusion of the college season, he has worked with private quarterbacks coach Quincy Avery to sharpen his skills. Avery calls Willis one of the most physically gifted quarterbacks he has ever worked with, and Willis said that the coach's emphasis on cleaning up his footwork is helping improve his accuracy and consistency in delivery.
Some of this growth was on display at Willis’ pro day last month. However, many analysts and NFL insiders believe that although there’s a lot to like about Willis, patience is still the best approach for the young passer and his future team.
Every rookie is champing at the bit to get on the field, but that’s not always the best scenario for long-term success.
Spending high picks on quarterbacks often creates pressure on a coaching staff to play him right away. However, some teams do resist such an urge because of a carefully crafted, patience-driven plan.
A look at recent history shows how such an approach can play out.
The Kansas City Chiefs took this approach with Patrick Mahomes after taking him 10th overall in 2017 and sitting him behind Alex Smith for a year before turning the team over to him, and that year of development paid off in a big way, Mahomes has admitted. In Baltimore, a strategy that consisted of spot duty for Lamar Jackson for the first nine weeks of his rookie year before a promotion to starter also worked out favorably.
Meanwhile, two other teams have seen that this approach isn't a cure-all.
Two years ago, the Packers drafted Jordan Love with the No. 26th overall selection. While stuck behind future Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers, Love never saw the field as a rookie, made one struggle-filled start in 2021 and appears set to remain a backup entering Year 3.
Last spring, the 49ers traded up to take Trey Lance and sat the rookie behind Jimmy Garoppolo, save for two starts when the veteran was injured. Though the dual-threat passer appears poised to be handed the reins, it remains unclear whether Lance is ready to ascend up the depth chart this season or not.
Some within the NFL see similarities between Lance and Willis at the same points of their careers.
A year ago, Lance was the surprise third overall pick of the draft despite limited college experience after COVID-19 precautions limited North Dakota State's 2020 season (what would've been Lance's second as a starter) to one game.
Lance played in more of a pro-style offense than Willis did, but he too entered the draft in need of refinement both in skill and decision-making.
Willis did have the benefit of playing more extensively and seemingly capitalized on a week of showcase action during the Senior Bowl, where he learned under the Detroit Lions’ coaching staff.
But multiple NFL scouts believe Willis still needs time.
ESPN draft analyst Jordan Reid, a former college quarterback and scout, agreed.
"I think the biggest thing with him is he needs to sit back and learn, because we’re talking about a player who has only started for two years in that Liberty offense," Reid told Paste BN Sports. "And so I do think he needs to go to a team with an established starter ahead of him. Maybe he can learn for a year or two – just the nuances of the position."
One potential positive for Willis is that many of the teams needing long-term solutions at quarterback already have veterans in place. The Lions still have Jared Goff under contract, the Saints re-signed Jameis Winston, the Falcons signed Marcus Mariota in free agency and the Steelers picked up Mitchell Trubisky. The Panthers probably have the least stable quarterback situation of all the potential landing spots, as Sam Darnold (the Jets' third overall pick of 2018) struggled with his performance and health in his first year in Carolina last season. They also seemingly have the least stable coaching outlook.
Willis has confidence in his ability to blossom into a marquee NFL quarterback, and multiple scouts say his aspirations are realistic – as long as he lands in the right situation.
If all of that falls into place, then those McNair comparisons could be accurate, Simms believes. He also views Willis as capable of eventually causing headaches for defenses similarly to two of today’s brightest stars.
Willis "does have really broad shoulders and a pair of legs on him that make you think of Steve McNair," said Simms. "And the power he has in his legs is real. I don’t look at him and say 'Wow, he’s terribly fast.' I look at him as far as 'Wow, really strong. Wow, he can make people miss. Wow, he can make people miss. Wow, he knows how as a natural runner to set up blockers to get extra yards, which is very impressive.'
"But more than anything when I get excited about him, it’s I think that if he could reach his full potential, he can be a guy, like a Mahomes, like (Josh) Allen, who can scramble around behind the line of scrimmage and then deliver a throw 30 yards down the field, and I think that is the most dangerous thing to defend in the NFL. You talk about Lamar Jackson and running quarterbacks, but there is nothing scarier for a defense than a quarterback that has a little bit of mobility and can break the pocket and make the cornerbacks cover for a little bit longer, and that is what Malik Willis could do in the NFL."
That, of course, is if everything plays out favorably for the prospect’s landing spot. As history has shown, fit and support matter just as much as physical talents (if not more than) for many young quarterbacks.
Follow Paste BN Sports' Mike Jones on Twitter @ByMikeJones.