NFL free agency 2022: Winners, losers after first wave of deals and trades

The NFL's 2022 free agent market hasn't officially been open 48 hours, yet it feels like the league has experienced another seismic shift.
Of course, major dominoes have been falling for 10 days, March 8 marking the point when Aaron Rodgers signaled his return to Green Bay, Russell Wilson's departure for Denver and the deadline to attach a franchise tag on pending free agents ... which still didn't prevent Davante Adams' stunning egress from the Packers. (It's worth noting that "free agency" has pretty much become a catch-all term for the NFL's silly season ... and it's been insane lately.)
Plenty of news has yet to materialize, blue chip free agents like OT Terron Armstead, CB Stephon Gilmore and LB Bobby Wagner yet to sign with new teams. However such decisions will pale in comparison to the highly anticipated trade of Houston Texans QB Deshaun Watson, who seems likely to join the Atlanta Falcons or New Orleans Saints any day now.
Still, we've seen enough over the last two – or 10 – days to sort out most of free agency's prominent winners and losers:
WINNERS
AFC West: With the influx of Wilson (Broncos), Adams (Raiders) and several marquee pass rushers, It's emerged as the flagship division – with the potential in 2022 to send all four of its member clubs to the playoffs. Sure, divisional play will cause some level of cannibalism, but when Derek Carr – arguably – is the worst among the quartet of starting quarterbacks? Much more on this as we go, but expect a lot of "Sunday Night Football" and "Monday Night Football" stops west of the Mississippi.
Davante Adams: In perhaps the most stunning turn of this young offseason, the two-time All-Pro receiver – the NFL's most productive the past two seasons (238 catches for 2,927 yards and 29 TDs since 2020) – was exported to Las Vegas on Thursday night, reuniting him with Fresno State BFF Carr and uniting Adams with the most handsome contract any receiver has ever inked – five years and $141 million, per reports. (And what welcome news for Carr, who'd already seen Oakland BFF Khalil Mack resurface with the division rival Los Angeles Chargers.) Hard to believe Carr and Adams, despite whatever latent college chemistry remains, can be nearly as prolific as Adams and Rodgers were in Green Bay, yet new Silver and Black coach Josh McDaniels' offense now certainly projects as a potential top-five attack.
Buffalo Bills: Who had Von Miller joining the Mafia – especially to the tune of six years for $120 million, more than half of it guaranteed? You think he might have gotten that key stop this top-ranked defense just couldn't come up with against the Kansas City Chiefs in that epic divisional round playoff loss two months ago? A two-time Super Bowl champion and one-time Super Bowl MVP, Miller might just be the missing piece that puts Buffalo over the top – though G Rodger Saffold and TE O.J. Howard should also help.
Tom Telesco: The Chargers general manager saw what crosstown Rams counterpart Les Snead pulled off in 2021 and started juicing up the star power of the Bolts' marquee. Snaring Mack for a second- and sixth-round pick (dealt to the Chicago Bears) and pairing him with OLB Joey Bosa marked a great start, and you could argue – and we will – Telesco got a bargain by signing CB J.C. Jackson, arguably the best free agent available, to a five-year, $82.5 million pact. Throw in a three-year, $60 million extension for WR Mike Williams and the additions of much-needed run pluggers Sebastian Joseph-Day and Austin Johnson to this defense, and Telesco might have a running start on 2022 executive of the year.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Unretired QB Tom Brady has already decided his extended family time can wait, and he'll be rejoined by several key teammates coming back on three-year deals: WR Chris Godwin ($60 million), CB Carlton Davis ($44.5 million) and C Ryan Jensen ($39 million). The Bucs band won't remain entirely intact, but old Brady bodyguard Shaq Mason arrives from New England via trade, and newly signed WR Russell Gage should help replace Antonio Brown's production minus the drama factor. Expect TE Rob Gronkowski – and maybe RB Leonard Fournette? – to re-up shortly for a team that should sleepwalk its way to the 2022 NFC South crown and might well have another Super Bowl run in it.
Joe Burrow: The Cincinnati Bengals burgeoning superstar was sacked a league-high 70 times in 20 games last season. But the AFC champs got to work fortifying their O-line's interior, signing Alex Cappa and Ted Karras, who were both charged with safeguarding Brady in recent years.
Matthew Stafford: The newly crowned Super Bowl-champion gunslinger faced the possibility his Rams could be significantly depleted. And while losing Miller and a few others hurts, Stafford's O-line retained C Brian Allen and Joe Noteboom, who more than capably replaced now-retired LT Andrew Whitworth in Los Angeles's memorable playoff escape in Tampa. And with Allen Robinson coming aboard, Stafford will have quite a receiving corps in 2022 assuming Robert Woods (ACL) heals – remains on the roster – and gets back to snatching and blocking alongside Super Bowl 56 MVP Cooper Kupp.
Pass rushers: Shouldn't be much of a surprise that the dudes who can turf the quarterbacks can sometimes make something in the area code of the guys they're hunting. Miller, the Raiders' Chandler Jones (3 years, $52.5 million, $34 million guaranteed), Eagles' Haason Reddick (3 years, $45 million, $30 million guaranteed) and Broncos' Randy Gregory (5 years, $70 million, $28 million guaranteed) all bagged significant bags. And let's not forget that four-year, $94 million extension Vegas gave Pro Bowl DE Maxx Crosby, a windfall that was a harbinger for his peers.
Kirk Cousins: The Vikings quarterback, who's banked roughly $160 million over the past six seasons, signed a $35 million extension for 2023 – meaning he's guaranteed another $70 million over the next two seasons. Strong case Cousins has surpassed Darrelle Revis as the NFL's premier businessman.
Aaron Rodgers: He's right, the four-year, $200 million jackpot it appeared he agreed to last week may not accurately reflect his take-home pay. Yet the four-time MVP has as much security as he wants from the Packers, and that very complex extension will average at least a record $50 million no matter how you slice it.
LOSERS
Aaron Rodgers: A guy who's 7-9 in his past 16 playoff starts, including a two-game losing streak as a No. 1 seed at Lambeau Field, must move forward without Adams, whom he described last Christmas as the "most dominant player I’ve played with." Sending Adams to Sin City means the Pack now have four of the draft's top 59 selections, including the 22nd and 28th overall – so maybe they will pick a wideout in Round 1 from a receiver-rich pool for the first time since 1988 (Sterling Sharpe). Maybe the offense will become less predictable given how heavily Rodgers relied on Adams, who had at least 110 catches in three of the past four seasons. And yet, by doing the un-Brady thing and taking so much of the salary-cap pie, Rodgers may ultimately hinder his quest for that second Super Bowl ring that would definitively gain him entry into the conversation as being among the league's all-time elite QBs. And given how frustrated he often gets with players who aren't on the same page – and he and Adams had a transcendent on-field mind meld – worth wondering how this all unfolds.
Kirk Cousins: #LetsFrickinGo? C'mon, Kirk. You wanna escape your 59-59-2 career record, let's breathe some real fire, buddy. #LFG or bust!
Three-minute delays: The Broncos can be forgiven for their excitement at obtaining Wilson, the nine-time Pro Bowler presumably stabilizing a position that's flummoxed this franchise since Peyton Manning retired six years ago. But beware making it all about Russ, who was introduced exactly three – same as his jersey number – minutes after the new league year commenced Wednesday. You need look no further than Rodgers and Wilson himself for examples of quarterbacks who got paid ridiculously well but couldn't restore their teams to Super Bowl glory once the roster and salary cap revolved around them.
Odell Beckham Jr.: Don't feel too badly for OBJ, a first-time father and Super Bowl champion. And maybe he eventually gets back onto the Rams' roster with an incentive-laden deal once it becomes clear how his recovery from an ACL torn in Super Bowl 56 is going. But with Woods on the mend, Robinson coming to Tinseltown, and Kupp getting the lion's share of Stafford's attention, hard to envision Beckham having a key role or long-term future here.
Baker Mayfield: His feelings clearly hurt by the Browns' dalliance with Watson, Mayfield now wants out of Cleveland – even though it's not clear if there's a better situation at a time when he should be trying to prove he's worth a lucrative extension and the long-term trust conferred upon a franchise's face.
Pittsburgh's bridges to nowhere? The Steelers extended QB2 Mason Rudolph last year, tendered QB3 Dwayne Haskins this year ... and just signed former first-round washout Mitchell Trubisky to a two-year, $14.2 million arrangement. Part of Pittsburgh's civic beauty is derived from all those bridges spanning the three rivers ... but where do any of these quarterback bridges lead? Maybe none are really breaking the bank, and maybe outgoing GM Kevin Colbert has some well-laid plans for draft day. But this consistently good franchise, generally conservative with draft picks, has had one top-10 selection since now-retired QB Ben Roethlisberger was taken 11th overall in 2004 – and snagging LB Devin Bush at No. 10 in 2019 was due to a rare aggressive trade. Scheduled to choose 20th overall next month, will Colbert give coach Mike Tomlin a nice parting gift to replace Big Ben, or is this organization headed for a frustrating limbo not experienced since the post-Bradshaw days ... which lingered for two decades?
J.C. Jackson: How does a cornerback, ranked by Paste BN Sports as the No. 1 free agent once franchise tags were dispensed, take an offer (5 years, $82.5 million) that mirrors what Byron Jones got from the Miami Dolphins two years ago – and Jones had more guarantees? Maybe, despite a league-high 25 interceptions over the past four seasons, Jackson isn't yet among the league's top five corners ... but, given how free agency typically gets leveraged, the 26-year-old Pro Bowler surely deserved to be paid like one.
Washington Commanders: If Carson Wentz is their QB1 in 2022 for a sufficient amount of games, the net loss will be a third-round draft pick and a second-rounder in 2023. If he plays reasonably well, maybe the rechristened Commanders are back in the postseason given the generally weak outlook of the NFC field. And yet this seemed like a panicked trade by a team that couldn't land Stafford in 2021 or Wilson this year – and yet another lateral-at-best quarterback fallback for an otherwise strong roster. And who was Washington bidding against? Why not just wait for the Indianapolis Colts to inevitably release Wentz rather than pay for him? If he'd miraculously gone somewhere else, then you sign a Tyrod Taylor or Trubisky type and use your first-round pick on a passing prospect. But this? Especially when other options inevitably surfaced?
Za'Darius Smith: Seemingly the odd man out in Green Bay after the Packers cleared cap room to extend Rodgers and franchise Adams, Smith's four-year, $35 million rebound with the Baltimore Ravens also failed to get finalized ... though Smith might find something closer to those aforementioned QB hunters if he shops a little while longer.
Jimmy Garoppolo: In the midst of a four-month rehab on his surgically repaired throwing shoulder, he remains in limbo – though maybe patience will pay off as teams like the Colts, Seattle Seahawks and, perhaps, Browns weigh their options under center.
Flip floppers: Gregory and Commanders RB J.D. McKissic (2 years, $7 million) both wound up taking essentially the same deals they'd agreed to with other teams, the Dallas Cowboys initially tweeting they'd re-signed Gregory, while McKissic seemed headed to Buffalo until Washington matched terms. Both had their reasons for an about-face ... but a more favorable playoff path wasn't among them.
Safeties: While Marcus Williams (5 years, $70 million, $37 million guaranteed) and – somewhat baffling – Justin Reid (3 years, $31.5 million, $20.5 million guaranteed) got sweet deals from the Ravens and Chiefs, respectively, safeties have generally had a relatively hard time cashing in. Marcus Maye (Saints) and Jordan Whitehead (New York Jets) won't average $8 million on multi-year deals, while – sustaining a pattern routinely endured by safeties in recent years – Tyrann Mathieu, Landon Collins, Kareem Jackson, Rodney McLeod and Anthony Harris remain among those waiting for their markets to develop.
Jacksonville Jaguars: For the second straight year, they've spent like a teenager who got ahold of a parent's credit card. Pro Bowler Brandon Scherff (3 years, $49.5 million) is a nice player, but should a guy who's missed 22 games over the past four seasons be the highest-paid guard in the game? TE Evan Engram just about got franchise tag-level money (1 year, $9 million), but maybe it's a reasonable roll of the dice in light of his ability – again, assuming he's healthy. WRs Christian Kirk (4 years, $72 million) and Zay Jones (3 years, $24 million) seem like lavish overspends, as does LB Foyesade Oluokun (3 years, $45 million), who racked up a league-leading 192 tackles in 2021 ... albeit for a terrible Atlanta defense. DT Foley Fatukasi (3 years, $30 million) was basically an early down rotational player for the Jets. Ex-Ram CB Darious Williams (3 years, $30 million) played well enough, but Jalen Ramsey was taking the tough assignments for LA. Middling LT Cam Robinson somehow got franchised ($16.7 million) – again. And remember, this all comes a year after the Jags spent lavishly on the likes of CB Shaquill Griffin, S Rayshawn Jenkins, DT Roy Robertson-Harris and WR Marvin Jones. For all that's changed over the past year, barring a dramatic leap forward by QB Trevor Lawrence, this feels like a team that's going to perennially finish 7-10 moving forward.
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Follow Paste BN Sports' Nate Davis on Twitter @ByNateDavis.