Tyreek Hill trade winners, losers: Dolphins, Chiefs change complexion of AFC

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Just when you think the stream of prominent NFL players switching teams is about to dry up, the spigot opens again.

Wednesday, it was Tyreek Hill on the move, traded from the Kansas City Chiefs to the Miami Dolphins, who lavished the perennial Pro Bowler with a four-year, $120 million extension that instantly makes him the league's best-compensated wide receiver. K.C. secures five draft picks in exchange for Hill's services, including first- and second-round selections this year.

Pretty extensive repercussions all the way around for one of the bigger blockbusters in a month full of them. On to the fallout ...

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WINNERS

Tua Tagovailoa: He and his teammates will need time to adjust to rookie head coach Mike McDaniel and his philosophy. But the Fins are fast putting everything around Tagovailoa that will reveal whether or not he's a franchise quarterback heading into a potentially pivotal third season. Hill's arrival comes just a day after three-time Pro Bowl LT Terron Armstead, arguably the No. 1 free agent to reach the market this year, agreed to a five-year, $75 million contract with Miami. The Dolphins also franchised TE Mike Gesicki and signed G Connor Williams, WRs Cedrick Wilson Jr. and Trent Sherfield and RBs Raheem Mostert and Chase Edmonds to upgrade last season's 25th-ranked offense. (In addition, Miami possesses two first-round choices in 2023, one obtained from San Francisco last year.) Now it's up to Tua to prove he's on par with 2020 draftmates Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert.

AFC West aspirants: Perhaps the subplot of the offseason has been the influx of talent into the division – mostly to the teams trying to unseat Kansas City, which has won the AFC West six years in a row. Hill's departure just made matters that much easier for the Denver Broncos, Las Vegas Raiders and Los Angeles Chargers as they try to close – and maybe even bridge – the gap on the Chiefs.

Raiders: They rate a special mention. The freight Vegas paid for All-Pro WR Davante Adams (Round 1 and 2 draft choices this year plus a five-year, $140 million extension) looks pretty reasonable given what Hill fetched.

2022 draft-eligible WRs: Wideout is one of the deepest position groups in the upcoming draft, though it seemed at one point there was a stronger possibility several could slide into later rounds given the supply. But with the Chiefs and Green Bay Packers now occupying multiple slots in the back half of the first round, seems the likelihood has grown there could be a run on the position with both contenders in dire need – not to mention the fact most teams' base offense is a three-wide alignment. Ohio State's Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave, USC's Drake London, Arkansas' Treylon Burks and Alabama's Jameson Williams project as likely first-rounders and bring a variety of skill sets to the position. But appears chances are improving for the likes of Penn State's Jahan Dotson and/or Western Michigan's Skyy Moore to sneak into the back of Round 1 as demand continues to grow.

JuJu Smith-Schuster: He joined the Chiefs for 2022 on a modest $3.3 million deal, ostensibly as the WR2 opposite Hill. Now Smith-Schuster, whose best season was a 2018 outlier (111 catches for 1,426 yards and 7 TDs) when he feasted opposite Antonio Brown in Pittsburgh, has a fresh opportunity to prove he's up to being a primary passing game target – perhaps collecting a good chunk of the $7.5 million in incentives he can earn this year while setting himself up for another crack at free agency in 2023.

Jaylen Waddle: He set a league rookie record with 104 catches last season. But Waddle only scored six TDs and was limited to 9.8 yards per catch, numbers that belie his explosive potential. With defensive coverage sure to roll toward Hill, Waddle could do far more damage for the Dolphins in 2022 even if his reception total takes a slight dip.

Buffalo Bills: KO'd at Arrowhead Stadium the past two postseasons, the Bills plus Von Miller look decidedly better than the Chiefs minus Hill.

Tyreek Hill: Wish granted, he ends Adams' days-long stay atop the wideout salary scale after failing to wrangle the money he desired out of the Chiefs.

LOSERS

Tyreek Hill: Careful what you wish for. Hill was a Pro Bowler every year (and twice an All-Pro) while playing for coach Andy Reid and with QB Patrick Mahomes in Kansas City. While Hill instantly becomes Miami's No. 1 playmaker, he'll probably find McDaniel will be far more dedicated to establishing the run than Reid typically was, will realize that Gesicki isn't the caliber of wingman Chiefs TE Travis Kelce is and – perhaps most worrisome – will have to make a potentially challenging adjustment to southpaw Tagovailoa, who hasn't shown much propensity for the deep strike since coming into the NFL. South Beach and the bag are great, but Hill may quickly miss that perennial trip (at least) to the AFC title game.

Buffalo Bills: They finished one game ahead of the New England Patriots and rookie QB Mac Jones in the AFC East last season and two clear of the Hill-less Dolphins. Not only is the conference as a whole better, but Buffalo's division just got much tougher a few months after the Bills' had two walkover wins against Miami by an aggregate 61-11 score. If Josh Allen and Co. sleepwalk to another 11-6 regular season, they could be in legitimate peril of missing the playoffs.

Davante Adams: Your contract – $28 million per year? $65.7 million guaranteed (Hill is assured of $72.2 million)? – stinks. 

New York Jets: They were also in the running to acquire and pay Hill. Per multiple reports, their offer included both of this year's second-round picks but neither of the NYJ's Round 1 choices, fourth and 10th overall. Probably a good thing for the Chiefs that Hill opted to go to Miami ... not so good for Jets QB Zach Wilson.

Patrick Mahomes: Hard not to flash back to January's epic divisional-round overtime escape from the Bills, when the 2018 MVP was throwing darts to Hill and Kelce in order to prevail in one of the most memorable playoff games ever. Also a good time to reflect on "2-3 Jet Chip Wasp," Mahomes' crucial 44-yard, fourth-quarter completion to Hill on third-and-15 that helped trigger the Chiefs' comeback victory in Super Bowl 54. That's all ancient history now, even if the perennial AFC West champs have the cap space and draft capital to quickly reset.

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Follow Paste BN Sports' Nate Davis on Twitter @ByNateDavis.