Five NFL draft prospects who could slide in (or out of) first round
With its annual gulf between the expectations for the top picks and the actual results, the NFL draft is tailormade for drama.
Even the most accurate mock drafts tend to fall by the wayside after a few selections, and one team's surprise pick can throw a wrench into the entire first round. For some players, this can spark a signature moment as they embark on their professional careers in an unexpectedly high draft slot. Yet for others, an uncomfortable wait begins when they remain on the board past the point many had projected.
Draft position, of course, doesn't define a player. But as the first round kicks off Thursday, these five players could be in for anything from a slight slide to a full-on tumble out of Day 1 as they await to hear their names called by NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell:
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Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia
Purely in terms of football performance, Carter is one of the draft's most unimpeachable prospects. The first-team All-American has been arguably the most dominant figure of Georgia's star-studded defenses during the school's back-to-back national title seasons. He is widely viewed as one of this class' elite talents, with Alabama's Will Anderson Jr., being perhaps the lone competitor for the title of the best defensive player.
In March, however, Carter was arrested on misdemeanor charges of racing and reckless driving in connection with the crash that killed Georgia teammate Devin Willock and recruiting staffer Chandler LeCroy. He later pleaded no contest. In a recently aired interview with HBO's "Real Sports," Carter said "a couple teams" inquired about the accident but "didn’t really get too in-depth." Agent Drew Rosenhaus has resisted having his client visit teams outside the top 10 picks, saying he's "confident" that Carter will be taken in that span. But if the Seahawks – who have widely been projected as a landing spot at No. 5 – opt to pass, Carter could be in for a slight slide. The Lions (No. 6), Bears (No. 9) and Eagles (No. 10) all stand out as intriguing potential fits, with Philadelphia perhaps representing his floor.
Bryan Bresee, DT, Clemson
Medical concerns can prove to be an anchor on any prospect's stock, and Bresee's history warrants a closer look from teams interested in the 6-5, 298-pounder. The former No. 1 overall recruit tore his anterior cruciate ligament in September 2021 and underwent shoulder surgery in January 2022 before missing time last fall due to a kidney infection.
How much of a concern those ailments will be moving forward is unclear, and there's likely a disparity from team to team in how he's viewed. Those comfortable with the outlook – the Jaguars (No. 24) might make sense given general manager Trent Baalke's risk tolerance for physically gifted players – could be getting a powerful disruptor on the interior with the versatility to take on a range of different responsibilities. But Bresee has encountered enough hiccups in his development that he might end up going early Friday rather than Thursday.
Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU
After six receivers were selected in the first 18 picks of the 2022 draft, no pass catcher this year is a lock for the same range. The unevenness of this year's receiver class is perhaps best embodied by Johnston, a 6-3, 208-pound target who averaged 19 yards per catch for his career. A target with his size and speed often would be among his class' most highly touted prospects, but Johnston's skill set leaves some significant concerns.
Despite his height and leaping ability (40 ½-inch vertical), Johnston has been consistently underwhelming in contested-catch situations. Drops have been a persistent problem, and his route-running is underdeveloped. The physical tools might be enough for him to secure a first-round spot, but the question marks could end up dragging him down to Day 2.
Brian Branch, S, Alabama
A slot defender with modest measurables typically would be a long shot for the first round. That characterization, of course, is a drastic oversimplification of Branch, a heady and multitalented coverage asset who routinely finds the ball and erases big plays. How teams evaluate him, then, might depend on how they balance his suboptimal traits with his sterling tape.
At Alabama, the 6-0, 190-pounder played the "star" position once manned by Minkah Fitzpatrick, whom Branch says he models his game after. While Branch has exhibited a skill set to be utilized beyond the slot, he doesn't have an extensive résumé operating in the deep safety role that some teams might envision for him. Even if he remains a valuable matchup piece in nickel packages, however, Branch could still provide tremendous value to a variety of defenses. He just might have a hard time cracking the top 20 picks – though several potential suitors await in the Chargers (No. 21), Jaguars (No. 24), Giants (No. 25) and Eagles (No. 30).
One of the top quarterbacks
Admittedly, this is a bit of a copout. But while all signs point to Bryce Young being the Carolina Panthers' selection at No. 1, it's anyone's guess where Ohio State's C.J. Stroud, Kentucky's Will Levis and Florida's Anthony Richardson land. And if the Houston Texans bypass a quarterback with the No. 2 selection, this could turn into a game of musical chairs in which at least one of the trio likely won't make it into the top 10.
Part of what has sparked the uncertainty has been the lack of clarity around which teams might actually be buyers at the position. Outside of the Panthers and Indianapolis Colts (No. 4), there are no sure things. The Seahawks (No. 5), Lions (No. 6) and Raiders (No. 7) all could consider a passer to serve as a successor to their current veteran starter, but each might be inclined to bolster their defense with a premier prospect instead. The Titans (No. 11) and Vikings (No. 23) also could be in the mix as trade-up candidates. Richardson and Levis seem like the most likely ones to be the odd man out, but either one could just as easily land in the top five.
Follow Paste BN Sports' Michael Middlehurst-Schwartz on Twitter @MikeMSchwartz.