NFL mock draft 2025: How AI picks compare to expert predictions for Round 1
Man vs. Machine. A societal battle with a 2025 NFL Draft twist. Welcome to the inaugural "Expert vs. Artificial Intelligence" mock draft in Paste BN – and perhaps world – history.
My opponent this year, Microsoft Copilot, put together a valiant effort. As the selections roll in Thursday night from Green Bay, Wisconsin during the first round, I’ll vigorously be comparing the results in hopes of emerging victorious.
For the purposes of this exercise, my colleague Jacob Camenker supplied the AI bot with parameters and provided his explanation-slash-translation of the picks. I offered a "modified" first-round mock that, to be honest, feels anything but "expert." I also commented on Copilot’s selection.
To keep things simple, trades were not permitted. Thus, I had just one quarterback going in the first round. My apologies to Shedeur Sanders, who will almost certainly hear his name called Thursday but won’t appear below.
Without further ado, let's dive in.
2025 NFL mock draft: AI vs. Expert first-round picks
1. Tennessee Titans
- AI pick: Cam Ward, QB, Miami (FL)
So far, so good for Copilot, as Ward is expected to be the No. 1 overall pick. The chatbot highlighted his "arm talent and mobility" as reasons the Titans would be interested in making him their "quarterback of the future." – Jacob Camenker
- Expert pick: Cam Ward, QB, Miami (FL)
Well isn't that a rosy analysis, Copilot. The Titans certainly hope he's the quarterback of the future. Ward has been the lean here for months and there's no reason to think the Titans disagree with the machine. – Chris Bumbaca
2. Cleveland Browns
- AI pick: Travis Hunter, WR/CB, Colorado
Copilot noted that Hunter – "a rare, two-way talent" – would upgrade the Browns' playmaking on both sides of the ball. The Browns seem increasingly likely to pass on a quarterback at No. 2 overall, so this would leave Cleveland seeking a passer later in the draft. – Camenker
- Expert pick: Travis Hunter, WR/CB, Colorado
Easy choice. Good to see Copilot understands greatness. Hunter will be beloved in Northeastern Ohio for generations. Now if they can get somebody to throw him the ball when he plays on offense ... – Bumbaca
3. New York Giants
- AI pick: Abdul Carter, EDGE, Penn State
Will the Giants take a quarterback here? AI says no and is following the trend of giving New York whichever of Hunter or Carter falls to them. In this case, they get the Penn State product, who profiles as "a disruptive force" at the NFL level. – Camenker
- Expert pick: Abdul Carter, EDGE, Penn State
The temptation to slot Sanders here is strong. But passing up on Carter would be a faux pas, and the current brass in New York cannot afford that. – Bumbaca
4. New England Patriots
- AI pick: Will Campbell, OT, LSU
If Carter and Hunter are off the board, the Patriots will almost certainly take an offensive tackle here. Which one? Copilot likes Campbell's fit. The LSU product started three years at left tackle, so that could make him a plug-and-play starter for the Patriots. – Camenker
- Expert pick: Will Campbell, OT, LSU
OK, all of this agreeing with Copilot is annoying me. But I can't argue with it – yet. I don't even consider Campbell the best tackle in the draft, but he feels like a Patriot, and Mike Vrabel would be pleased to have Campbell in the building. – Bumbaca
5. Jacksonville Jaguars
- AI pick: Tyler Warren, TE, Penn State
The Jaguars lost Evan Engram during the offseason, so Copilot has the Jaguars targeting Warren to give Trevor Lawrence "a dynamic weapon" to replace him. Warren is widely considered one of the draft's top prospects, but this likely represents his ceiling for Thursday night. – Camenker
- Expert pick: Ashton Jeanty, RB, Boise State
Finally! Although I'm still on the same page as Copilot, I have the Jags taking a different offensive weapon. New GM James Gladstone and first-year coach Liam Coen can't do any wrong by extending an olive branch to QB Trevor Lawrence by providing him a backfield weapon. He's a top-five talent in the class without a doubt. It's not too high for a RB! – Bumbaca
6. Las Vegas Raiders
- AI pick: Matthew Golden, WR, Texas
OK sure, the Raiders need a receiver. But will they really spend the sixth overall pick on Golden? The Texas speedster has enjoyed a strong pre-draft process after running the fastest 40 at the 2025 NFL combine, but this seems like a reach. Perhaps Las Vegas could trade down and target Golden, but this represents Copilot's first surprise pick. – Camenker
- Expert pick: Mason Graham, DT, Michigan
Matthew Golden?! Somebody check Copilot's BAC. I could see the Raiders moving back here, but if they stick and pick, why not build from the trenches? Vegas isn't one player away from contending and Graham would become a centerpiece of the defense and help free up Maxx Crosby on the outside. – Bumbaca
7. New York Jets
- AI pick: Mason Graham, DT, Michigan
Graham is one of the top defensive talents in this year's draft and is a good fit for the Jets. Graham plays with a high motor, so he should be a culture-builder for Aaron Glenn as he looks to establish himself in New York. – Camenker
- Expert pick: Armand Membou, OT, Missouri
Membou is my favorite offensive lineman of the draft. He's plug and play for the Jets at right tackle. Graham feels a little redundant to Williams, Copilot, but having too many elite defensive linemen isn't a problem. – Bumbaca
8. Carolina Panthers
- AI pick: Shemar Stewart, EDGE, Texas A&M
The Panthers had the lowest pressure rate in the NFL last season, so Copilot identify the edge as the team's "key defensive need." Stewart had just 4.5 sacks over three college seasons but has the athletic ceiling needed to be a strong starter at the NFL level. – Camenker
- Expert pick: Tetairoa McMillan, WR, Arizona
Big Shemar Stewart fan here. Big. Even with the obvious production concerns. But this is a make-or-break year for QB Bryce Young. His receivers are Adam Thielen (35 when the season starts) and Xavier Legette, whose rookie campaign left something to be desired. Carolina should take McMillan, the clear WR1 in the draft (it's definitely not Golden at No. 6 overall – still can't believe Copilot did that). – Bumbaca
9. New Orleans Saints
- AI pick: Shedeur Sanders, QB, Colorado
Full disclosure: Copilot was really intent on giving Sanders to the Bengals or Ravens, and it took a few tries to get it to place the Colorado star with a legitimate quarterback-needy team. Eventually, it settled on giving Sanders to the Saints. It noted that Derek Carr's uncertain future played a major role in this pick. – Camenker
- Expert pick: Tyler Warren, TE, Penn State
QB is definitely an option here. Sanders at No. 9 overall? I like the cut of your jib, Copilot. But too bad for yourself and your jib that you lack the emotional intellect to notice the Saints and Sanders have nary been linked as the pre-draft process has played out. Warren gives first-year HC Kellen Moore an immediate impact player on the offensive side of the ball. – Bumbaca
10. Chicago Bears
- AI pick: Ashton Jeanty, RB, Boise State
The Bears reportedly "love" Jeanty, so this seems like his floor. Copilot agrees and noted it was looking forward to seeing Jeanty working alongside Caleb Williams. – Camenker
- Expert pick: Jalon Walker, LB/EDGE, Georgia
Bears GM Ryan Poles might be wise to move up a spot or two to snag either Jeanty or Warren, two players who make a lot more sense for them. Jeanty especially, he's the perfect fit for Chicago. Well-done Copilot. But Walker's versatility can be an advantage for a defense that stands to add a linebacker or edge rusher in the draft. Like Jeanty and Warren, he's considered a top-10 talent. – Bumbaca
11. San Francisco 49ers
- AI pick: Will Johnson, CB, Michigan
Here's another sensible pick for Copilot. The 49ers lost Charvarius Ward, a physical, top cornerback with good ball skills. Johnson has size and could become a "lockdown corner" for San Francisco, according to the AI chatbot's estimation. – Camenker
- Expert pick: Will Johnson, CB, Michigan
Back to agreeing with Mr. Copilot. Not sure I like it, but willing to accept it. Johnson was talked about like a top five pick prior to the season. His injuries did him no favors but the Niners definitely need to revamp the secondary. – Bumbaca
12. Dallas Cowboys
- AI pick: Tetairoa McMillan, WR, Arizona
The Cowboys seem likely to take an offensive playmaker here. Copilot has a second pure receiver coming off the board before a second running back. It likes McMillan's "excellent hands and route-running" and believes he will connect easily with Dak Prescott. – Camenker
- Expert pick: Omarion Hampton, RB, North Carolina
Mr. Jones and Mr. Copilot are on the same page in the sense that the Cowboys need a weapon. Hampton has playmaking ability that stands out and with Jeanty and McMillan off the board, Dallas digs for Hampton. – Bumbaca
13. Miami Dolphins
- AI pick: Kelvin Banks Jr., OT, Texas
Miami has to protect Tua Tagovailoa and Banks would give them a left-side starter with Terron Armstead now retired. But for those wondering why Copilot placed Banks ahead of Membou, it inexplicably decided not to mock the Missouri product in the first round. The chatbot may have lost track of him after the top 10 picks, so we're not reading too much into this likely erroneous omission. – Camenker
- Expert pick: Jahdae Barron, CB, Texas
Can't go wrong with addressing the offensive line if you're the Dolphins, so kudos to Copilot for the selection here. But Barron, the reigning Jim Thorpe Award winner as the nation's top defensive back is too attractive for GM Chris Grier to ignore from a value standpoint. – Bumbaca
14. Indianapolis Colts
- AI pick: Colston Loveland, TE, Michigan
The Colts have Drew Ogletree and Mo Alie-Cox entrenched as their top tight ends. Copilot described Loveland as "a big boided target" who would help give Anthony Richardson a middle-of-the-field weapon. It's hard to argue with that logic. – Camenker
- Expert pick: Shemar Stewart, EDGE, Texas A&M
Noted Stewart fan here. Have I said that yet? The production concerns don't scare me much because of the traits and how stacked the A&M d-line was last year. I actually very much enjoy Copilot's pick here and tip my hat that I didn't see the vision of how Loveland could help Anthony Richardson (or Daniel Jones) in 2025. – Bumbaca
15. Atlanta Falcons
- AI pick: Jalon Walker, LB/EDGE, Georgia
The Falcons had the second-fewest sacks in the NFL last season. Walker, a versatile playmaker, would help improve upon the team's lackluster pressure rate and fill a "key defensive need." – Camenker
- Expert pick: Mike Green, EDGE, Marshall
As the great Copilot said, the pass rush is a "key defensive need" for Atlanta. Green, an All-American, led the FBS in sacks with 17. Check. The Falcons would be jumping for joy if Walker, a Georgia product, fell to them here. – Bumbaca
16. Arizona Cardinals
- AI pick: Mike Green, EDGE, Marshall
The Cardinals added Josh Sweat but could stand to add a high-end partner for him. Copilot cited Green's "power" and run-stopping abilities as reasons he would pair well with Sweat. – Camenker
- Expert pick: Jihaad Campbell, LB, Alabama
With sideline-to-sideline ability, Campbell is one of my favorite defensive players in the class. Green is a totally acceptable pick and I have him going in the same range. I'd be pretty surprised if the Cardinals went offense here. – Bumbaca
17. Cincinnati Bengals
- AI pick: Donovan Ezeiruaku, EDGE, Boston College
After desperately trying to convince the Bengals to draft Shedeur Sanders, Copilot finally settled on giving Cincinnati an upgrade for its defensive line. Ezeiruaku was second to Green in sacks last season with 16.5 and could develop into a strong partner or replacement for Trey Hendrickson. – Camenker
- Expert pick: Walter Nolen, DT, Ole Miss
Bolstering the defensive front is definitely a necessity at pick No. 17 for the Bengals, Copilot. I have the Bengals going with more of an interior option in Nolen, who has one of the largest floor-to-ceiling ranges among first-round prospects. Feels like a Cincy pick. – Bumbaca
18. Seattle Seahawks
- AI pick: Grey Zabel, OL, North Dakota State
The Seahawks need to improve their protection in front of Sam Darnold, who had the third-longest time to throw among qualified quarterbacks last year. Zabel would be a big-time upgrade on the interior. – Camenker
- Expert pick: Grey Zabel, OL, North Dakota State
Copilot! Just when I think we've parted ways for good, there you are. But this pick makes too much sense. The end of last season was a brutal reminder for Darnold how much he depends on the success of his interior offensive line. The Seahawks have glaring needs at all three spots. Picking Zabel would go a long way in alleviating some of those needs. – Bumbaca
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- AI pick: Jihaad Campbell, LB, Alabama
"Speed and versatility" are the name of Campbell's game, in Copilot's opinion. The Buccaneers could use both in their linebacker corps, as Campbell can be a situational edge rusher while also potentially developing as Lavonte David's successor. – Camenker
- Expert pick: James Pearce Jr., EDGE, Tennessee
Campbell is a solid fit for the Bucs, but I question whether he'll last until this point. Todd Bowles loves another defender, especially one who can get after the quarterback like Pearce. – Bumbaca
20. Denver Broncos
- AI pick: Omarion Hampton, RB, North Carolina
The Broncos lost Javonte Williams in free agency and could use a true workhorse for their backfield anyway. Copilot likes Hampton's physicality and fit in Sean Payton's offense. – Camenker
- Expert pick: TreVeyon Henderson, RB, Ohio State
Oh, you better believe Sean Payton is drafting a running back 20th overall. That may be the worst-kept secret in the league. Hampton and Jeanty have been discussed as the Tier 1 backs, but Henderson is the perfect addition to the Broncos' offense. It wouldn't be a reach. Copilot agrees with the running back selection, but I fear Hampton won't be around. – Bumbaca
21. Pittsburgh Steelers
- AI pick: Jahdae Barron, CB, Texas
The Steelers added Darius Slay and Brandin Echols in free agency, but Barron would address a long-term need at cornerback. He hasn't often been mocked to Pittsburgh, but it's easy to imagine Mike Tomlin unlocking the full potential of his do-it-all skill set. – Camenker
- Expert pick: Nick Emmanwori, S, South Carolina
Maybe the MVP of the 2025 combine, Emmanwori is an athletic revelation on the back end of a defense. Pairing him with HC Mike Tomlin feels unfair. I like where Copilot's head – wait, AI doesn't have brains, right? – is at with the secondary selection, though. – Bumbaca
22. Los Angeles Chargers
- AI pick: Kenneth Grant, DT, Michigan
A big-bodied, run-stuffing Wolverine seems like a perfect fit for Jim Harbaugh's roster. Copilot seems to know what it's doing! – Camenker
- Expert pick: Colston Loveland, TE, Michigan
HC Jim Harbaugh going with a "Michigan Man" here makes sense, and Copilot knows this. Too bad it picked the wrong "Michigan Man." Justin Herbert needs somebody to throw to other than Ladd McConkey, and Loveland very well may not last this long. – Bumbaca
23. Green Bay Packers
- AI pick: Malaki Starks, S, Georgia
There's no doubting Starks' talent, but do the Packers really need a safety? Xavier McKinney was an All-Pro last season while Evan Williams and Javon Bullard performed well as rookies. Perhaps Starks is just too good to pass up at this point, but this seems like one of the chatbot's shakier fits. – Camenker
- Expert pick: Mykel Williams, EDGE, Georgia
The Packers love to draft Bulldogs. Copilot got that part right. Just the wrong position. Pairing Starks with Xavier McKinney seems attractive, but Green Bay would be wiser to address the pass rush component of their defense. – Bumbaca
24. Minnesota Vikings
- AI pick: James Pearce Jr., EDGE, Tennessee
The Vikings lost Pat Jones in free agency but still have Jonathan Greenard, Andrew Van Ginkel and 2024 first-round pick Dallas Turner on the edge. Pearce is a good player and fits the range, but there are bigger needs for Minnesota to target. – Camenker
- Expert pick: Tyler Booker, G, Alabama
HC Kevin O'Connell spoke at the combine about the importance of addressing the interior of the offensive line. Drafting Booker is a healthy way to go about it. I feel like Copilot's pick of Pearce would be graded in the D+ range. – Bumbaca
25. Houston Texans
- AI pick: Josh Conerly Jr., OT, Oregon
Copilot wants Houston to protect its young quarterback, C.J. Stroud. In its estimation, Conerly is the best blocker available (though again, it's worth noting the chatbot has forgotten Membou). The 6-5, 311-pound Oregon product was steady for the Ducks and won't turn 22 until November. – Camenker
- Expert pick: Kelvin Banks Jr., OT, Texas
And here comes the run on offensive linemen. Copilot has Conerly, who I do not consider a first-round prospect. And I'll admit there's a decent chance Banks is off the board by this point based on team needs, but I'm all about value. – Bumbaca
26. Los Angeles Rams
- AI pick: Darius Alexander, DT, Toledo
Do the Rams really need another interior defensive lineman after signing Poona Ford to go with Braden Fiske and Kobie Turner? Probably not. Add in that Alexander is more of a Day 2 prospect and this pick doesn't seem overly likely, even if Copilot likes the "rangy" Toledo product. – Camenker
- Expert pick: Maxwell Hairston, CB, Kentucky
The speedy Hairston would be a solid addition to a Rams defense that revamped the defensive line over the first two rounds of the 2024 draft. Because of that, Alexander feels redundant. But this feels like a trade-back spot for GM Les Snead. – Bumbaca
27. Baltimore Ravens
- AI pick: Nick Emmanwori, S, South Carolina
Copilot is sold on the idea of pairing the uber-athletic and physical Emmanwori with All-Pro Kyle Hamilton. It's easy to imagine that partnership being fruitful and giving opposing offensive coordinators nightmares, though Malaki Starks would probably fit better next to Hamilton. – Camenker
- Expert pick: Donovan Ezeiruaku, EDGE, Boston College
Speaking of redundancy, Emmanwori on the Ravens falls into that category. Every pro comp for Emmanwori comes back to Ravens DB Kyle Hamilton. The Ravens could use another safety, but a carbon copy of Hamilton doesn't feel like the best way to build a defense. Taking Ezeiruaku gives Baltimore a big body who could get after the quarterback, which is soneed more than another Hamilton prototype. There's a Boston College connection in Baltimore with Zay Flowers. – Bumbaca
28. Detroit Lions
- AI pick: Nic Scourton, EDGE, Texas A&M
The Lions need to find a high-end pass rushing partner to play across from Aidan Hutchinson. Scourton, who played with Shemar Stewart at Texas A&M, has "a unique blend of size and speed" that would pair with Hutchinson. – Camenker
- Expert pick: Derrick Harmon, DT, Oregon
Harmon can fill a variety of spots on the interior defensive line, and the Lions need some assistance there. But I applaud Copilot for giving Scourton a first-round nod. – Bumbaca
29. Washington Commanders
- AI pick: Maxwell Hairston, CB, Kentucky
The Commanders acquired Marshon Lattimore before the 2024 NFL trade deadline but could still use help at cornerback. Hairston's "blazing speed" and ball skills give him the potential to develop into a strong, long-term starter across from Mike Sainristil. – Camenker
- Expert pick: Matthew Golden, WR, Texas
Twenty-three picks later than Copilot, I have Golden coming off the board as WR2. GM Adam Peters can't be patient in giving QB Jayden Daniels weapons even after the offseason addition of Deebo Samuel and presence of Terry McLaurin. But Hairston would fit well in HC Dan Quinn's defense. – Bumbaca
30. Buffalo Bills
- AI pick: Luther Burden III, WR, Missouri
Copilot came close to giving the Bills Ty Robinson, which certainly would have raised eyebrows. Instead, it decided to give Josh Allen an "explosive" and "versatile" weapon in Burden, who could quickly develop into Buffalo's top receiving threat. – Camenker
- Expert pick: Nic Scourton, EDGE, Texas A&M
The good news for the Bills is that even though they are picking in the way back of the first round, they'll have options to address their glaring need on the defensive line. Again, shoutout Copilot for believing in Scourton as a late first-round pick. – Bumbaca
31. Kansas City Chiefs
- AI pick: Aireontae Ersery, OT, Minnesota
Copilot didn't like how the Chiefs protected Patrick Mahomes in "critical games," especially Super Bowl 59. The chatbot thinks Ersery (6-6, 331 pounds) will be able to use his strong technique to challenge Jaylon Moore and Jawaan Taylor for a starting tackle job. – Camenker
- Expert pick: Josh Simmons, OT, Ohio State
I'm not going to lie; I had to do a bit of research on Ersery here before skewering Copilot's pick. At least Copilot got the part about the Chiefs needing some o-line help right. But it's hard to imagine they won't have better options than somebody who has a consensus second-round grade like Ersery. Instead, they'll go with the more battle-tested and impressive Simmons. – Bumbaca
32. Philadelphia Eagles
- AI pick: Jack Sawyer, EDGE, Ohio State
Evidently, Copilot knows Howie Roseman's strategy well. The Eagles GM loves to address the trenches and should be positioned to do so with the 32nd pick. Copilot AI likes Sawyer's "high motor" and ability to generate consistent pressure. He has a wide draft range but would still be a slight reach here, as he's more of a Day 2 prospect. – Camenker
- Expert pick: Kenneth Grant, DT, Michigan
GM Howie Roseman has his replacement for the departed Milton Williams in Grant, who can make an immediate impact in stuffing the run before working on his pass rush ability. And at this point, I don't want to make Copilot (which doesn't have any feelings) feel any worse: Jack Sawyer is not a first-round pick. – Bumbaca
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