How will Jalen Hurts play against Chiefs in Super Bowl 59? What QB’s stats tell us
Revenge is on the table for Jalen Hurts and the Eagles in Super Bowl 59.
For the second time in three years, Philadelphia will take on the Kansas City Chiefs in the Super Bowl. Two years ago, the Eagles came up empty in a 38-35 loss in Glendale, Arizona. This year, Hurts has put together an even more impressive stretch of playoff games leading up to the Super Bowl and has a new backfield mate, running back Saquon Barkley, that adds an extra level of dynamism to the offense.
Heading into this year's Super Bowl in New Orleans, what should we expect from Hurts' performance? Paste BN Sports compared how Hurts performed against defenses similar to that of the Chiefs' to find out.
Which similarly ranked defenses did Jalen Hurts play?
The Chiefs, despite all of their success in a regular season that featured zero games of more than 30 points from their offense, actually didn't have a top-ranked defense by any efficiency metric.
Instead, Kansas City was more near the "middle-of-the-pack" range among all NFL defenses in EPA/play (15th) and success rate (13th) allowed. Their defensive DVOA ranked 12th in the NFL. None of their dropback EPA, dropback success rate, rush EPA or rush success rate allowed were ranked in the top 10.
So instead of comparing Hurts' performances against top-ranked opponents, Paste BN Sports compared how he played against teams that ranked close to the Chiefs in the EPA/play, defensive DVOA and dropback EPA allowed categories.
The Eagles actually didn't play many games against the teams that ranked the absolute closest, so we're sticking with teams that are within five spots of Kansas City in any given category: the Packers (seventh in defensive DVOA), Falcons (20th in EPA/play), Buccaneers (17th in EPA/play), Cowboys (13th in dropback EPA) and Ravens (14th in dropback EPA).
Here's a cumulative look at how Hurts' stats looked against those five teams:
- Completion rate: 86-of-133 (64.7%)
- Passing yards: 939
- Yards per attempt: 7.1
- Touchdowns: 7 (+ 5 rushing)
- Interceptions: 4
- Fumbles: 6 (3 lost)
- Passer rating: 92.5
- Yards per carry: 4.46
- Eagles points per game: 25.8
- Record: 3-2
It's worth noting that three of the five games Hurts and the Eagles played against these opponents were before the Week 5 bye that marked a turning point to the team's season. Philadelphia ripped off 10 straight wins after a 2-2 start to the season coming out of that bye, and four of Hurts' five worst games by passer rating this year happened during that opening four-week stretch.
What to expect from Jalen Hurts in the 2025 Super Bowl
It's hard to anticipate exactly how Hurts will perform in the Super Bowl come Sunday. The games he's played against teams with similar defensive metrics as the Chiefs largely happened early in the season, and he's looked like a different quarterback – and the Eagles, a different team – in the weeks and months since.
Still, his average passer rating in those games was higher than league average but would've ranked 21st among NFL quarterbacks in 2024 – just above Aaron Rodgers and just below Geno Smith.
Hurts hasn't thrown an interception in the playoffs since 2021, when he threw two in a wild-card round loss to the Buccaneers, and his touchdown-to-interception ratio during this year's run is three-to-zero. He also hasn't lost a fumble yet in this year's postseason, so his ability to keep the ball protected will be crucial for the Eagles' success against a Chiefs team that has tended to capitalize on every extra opportunity this year.
Another dynamic that will be crucial for Hurts and the Eagles to take advantage of is his athleticism – particularly in his abilities as a rusher. Behind the NFL's best offensive line, he and running back Saquon Barkley have been one of the most dangerous backfield duos in the league. Philadelphia will be looking to take advantage of their strengths in the running game in this year's Super Bowl, and Hurts is a big part of that.
Come Sunday, the expectation should be that Hurts continues to protect the football, utilizes his skills as a runner and makes the important, big throws when he needs to, much like he did in the NFC championship game. If he and Barkley can continue to complement each other on offense, the Eagles have a very viable pathway to the franchise's second Lombardi Trophy.