Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys: Scouting report, prediction
Free Press sports writer Dave Birkett breaks down the matchups for Monday night's game:
Detroit Lions (9-5) at Dallas Cowboys (12-2)
When: 8:30 p.m. Monday.
Where: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas.
Line: Cowboys by 4.
TV/radio: ESPN, Channel 7 in Detroit; WJR-AM (760).
Live blog: Join us at 8:30 p.m.!
Related:
Injury report
Lions
DNP: RB Theo Riddick (wrist), CB Darius Slay (hamstring), C Travis Swanson (concussion).
Limited: DE Ezekiel Ansah (shoulder), LB DeAndre Levy (knee).
Full: S Rafael Bush (back), DT Haloti Ngata (quadricep), QB Matthew Stafford (finger/right hand), DT Khyri Thornton (illness).
Cowboys
DNP: CB Morris Claiborne (groin), DT Tyrone Crawford (shoulder, hamstring), LB Justin Durant (elbow), DE Demarcus Lawrence (back), QB Mark Sanchez (not injury related), T Tyron Smith (back, knee), DT Cedric Thornton (ankle).
Limited: DE Jack Crawford (foot), LB Sean Lee (knee). FULL: WR Dez Bryant (back), S Barry Church (forearm), G Ronald Leary (back), S J.J. Wilcox (thigh).
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Three storylines to watch
Zeke the Freak
The Lions’ 11th-ranked run defense will face its sternest test of the season Monday against Ezekiel Elliott and the Cowboys’ vaunted offensive line. Elliott leads the league with 1,551 yards rushing and his 310 carries are 42 more than any other back in the NFL.
Despite that heavy workload, and even with home-field advantage throughout the playoffs already clinched, Cowboys coach Jason Garrett indicated Friday that Elliott will play his usual role in the backfield. The Lions, at least, are expecting as much.
“He possesses all of the qualities that a great back possesses,” Lions coach Jim Caldwell said. “There’s not anything really that he can’t do.”
Hurt locker
Monday’s game marks the first meeting between the Lions and Cowboys since the 2014 playoffs, when Dallas scored 17 straight points in the second half to escape with a 24-20 victory.
The Lions were in control of the game midway through the fourth quarter when officials overturned a pass-interference call on the field. The Cowboys scored the go-ahead touchdown after a bad Sam Martin punt, and Matthew Stafford fumbled twice in the final two minutes to extend the Lions’ two-plus-decade-old playoff drought.
“I know I got a soft spot for them just because of the playoff game I was in my rookie year,” Lions tight end Eric Ebron said. “A lot of people that wasn’t here probably wouldn’t understand, but that cost us that game to move on and we haven’t won a playoff game in years here. So I know I got a soft spot for them. We should play like it. I know that hurt a lot of us, so we should definitely play like it getting to go back there.”
Red dawn
One of the best red-zone offensive teams in the NFL last year, the Lions have been nothing of the sort this fall.
They have six field goals, three turnovers and just three touchdowns in 12 red-zone trips over the last three games, and offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter said it’s imperative the Lions make better use of their possessions Monday if they’re going to beat the Cowboys.
“We were starting this year out on the right path and really had a poor last two, three, four games of getting touchdowns down there for multiple reasons,” Cooter said. “But at the end of the day, we’ve just got to execute better. We’ve got to go score points.”
Related:
Know the foe: Cowboys (12-2)
Coach: Jason Garrett (58-46 overall, 58-46 with Cowboys).
Key players: QB Dak Prescott, RB Ezekiel Elliott, WR Dez Bryant, LB Sean Lee, CB Brandon Carr.
Last game: Beat the Buccaneers, 26-20.
Dave Birkett’s buzz: The Cowboys wrapped up home-field advantage throughout the playoffs earlier this week when the Philadelphia Eagles upset the New York Giants. Garrett has said he won’t rest his starters, not with three weeks until their first playoff game, but human nature could be a factor as players know what is and isn’t on the line. Elliott and Prescott are the leading candidates for NFL offensive rookie of the year. Elliott leads the league in rushing and needs 258 yards over the final two games to break Eric Dickerson’s rookie rushing record. He has the benefit of running behind the best offensive line in football, though All-Pro left tackle Tyron Smith missed time this week with back and knee injuries. Former Lions coach Rod Marinelli is the Cowboys’ defensive coordinator. He runs a lot of two-deep zone coverage, as you’d expect. Lee is second in the NFL with 140 tackles and the Cowboys get pass rusher Randy Gregory back from suspension this week.
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Scouting report
Lions’ run offense vs. Cowboys’ run defense
The Lions rank 30th in the NFL in rushing, but that doesn’t tell the story of just how bad they’ve been. In 14 games, the Lions have scored a league-low five rushing touchdowns and leading rusher Theo Riddick has a paltry 357 yards.
Riddick has missed the last two games with a wrist injury and had not practiced as of Friday this week. Assuming he does not play Monday, Dwayne Washington will make his third straight start. Washington runs hard, but he still lacks vision at times and has had a choppy rookie season. Zach Zenner should see time as Washington’s backup.
The Cowboys lead the league in rushing defense at 80.9 yards per game, though some of their dominance is due to the way they control the clock and jump to early leads. Dallas’ defensive front isn’t as big as the one the Giants gave the Lions fits with last week, but linebacker Sean Lee is second in the NFL in tackles. Edge: Cowboys.
Lions’ pass offense vs. Cowboys’ pass defense
Matthew Stafford will wear a different modified glove on his throwing hand this week, but his dislocated middle finger did not adversely affect his play against the Giants. Stafford still was able to deliver the ball with zip and accuracy, and his lone turnover had nothing to do with his injury.
The Lions receivers have struggled to get open against press man coverage, but they should see a more zone-oriented approach from the Cowboys and defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli. That, in turn, could open things up downfield for wide receiver Marvin Jones and tight end Eric Ebron, who hasn’t topped 40 yards receiving in a game since before Thanksgiving.
Cornerback Morris Claiborne has not played since Oct. 30 because of a groin injury for the Cowboys, and defensive end DeMarcus Lawrence is out with a back injury. The Lions do have to be wary of Randy Gregory and the surprising David Irving off the edge. Edge: Lions.
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Cowboys’ run offense vs. Lions’ run defense
The Cowboys defied conventional wisdom when they took a running back with the fourth pick of this year’s draft, but the move looks like a stroke of brilliance now. Ezekiel Elliott leads the NFL with 1,551 yards rushing and is the favorite for offensive rookie of the year.
As good as Elliott is, the Cowboys’ second-ranked rushing attack (154.5 ypg) has just as much to do with their star-studded offensive line. Tyron Smith may be the best left tackle in football, and right guard Zach Martin and center Travis Frederick also are perennial Pro Bowlers.
The Lions haven’t allowed a 100-yard rusher since Jordan Howard gained 111 yards in Week 4, but they haven’t exactly stopped the run with great success, either. The Giants took advantage of a defense designed to stop the pass for 114 yards last week, and players like Howard, Eddie Lacy and DeMarco Murray have had nice days against the Lions this year. Edge: Cowboys.
Cowboys’ pass offense vs. Lions’ pass defense
If Elliott doesn’t win rookie of the year, quarterback Dak Prescott likely will. Prescott’s job has been made easier by the presence of Elliott and the best offensive line in football, but he has done a fine job in his own right completing 67.7% of his passes and throwing 20 touchdowns against just four interceptions this year.
The Cowboys don’t push the ball downfield much with Prescott at quarterback, but Dez Bryant remains one of the best deep-ball receivers in football, Cole Beasley is a tough matchup in the slot, and Jason Witten might be a future Hall-of-Famer at tight end.
Darius Slay is not expected to play Monday because of a hamstring injury, which means the Lions likely will trot out Nevin Lawson, Johnson Bademosi and Asa Jackson as their top three cornerbacks. Jackson had a rough go of it last week and could be in for a long day against Beasley. It won’t be easy to get to Prescott, but Ziggy Ansah finally had his first sack of the season against the Giants. Edge: Cowboys.
Special teams
Kicker Matt Prater and punter Sam Martin were named Pro Bowl alternates this week, and both can make the case they should be starting in the game. Prater has made 19 straight field goals since banging a kick off the uprights in Week 8 against Houston, and Martin is second in the league in net punting. Return man Andre Roberts has two touchdowns this year.
Dan Bailey is having a good season kicking the ball for the Cowboys. He has made 25 of 30 field goals with a long of 56 yards, though he has missed three kicks in the last two games. Punter Chris Jones relies more on hang time than distance, and Lucky Whitehead has been solid on returns. Edge: Lions.
Prediction
Cowboys 28, Lions 20: The Cowboys wrapped up home-field advantage throughout the playoffs earlier this week, but all indications are that they won’t rest their starters. Whether they have the same sense of urgency to win with nothing on the line is a different story, but if they play to their capabilities the Cowboys are the best team in football.
The Lions have held eight straight opponents to 20 points or fewer, and they’ll need a similar defensive effort to win Monday. Stopping Elliott is a must or the Lions will go into next week’s showdown with the Green Bay Packers on a two-game losing streak. Offensively, the Lions can’t afford to settle for field goals in the red zone like they have in recent weeks. If they get touchdowns and Matthew Stafford has a turnover-free game, maybe just maybe they’ll get to 10 wins for the second time in Jim Caldwell’s three seasons as coach.
Contact Dave Birkett: dbirkett@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @davebirkett.
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