Inside Aaron Rodgers' declining numbers: Magic missing on Packers' extended plays
GREEN BAY — For years, he torched the NFL whenever a play broke down. See Aaron Rodgers at his best, and he’s holding the football, holding the football, creating something out of nothing.
That brilliance is in sharp decline this season. For a Green Bay Packers offense that lags in the middle of the league, the successful extended play is endangered, cratering toward extinct.
It has sparked the question: Does Aaron Rodgers hold onto the football too long?
“I’m not sure what the stats would bear out,” Rodgers told PackersNews.com, “but I would say it feels like there’s been more times where I’ve been on rhythm than maybe in years past, where it has been more matchup based — conceptual, matchup based — than this offense, which is more schematic based.”
The difference is an offense dependent more on Rodgers' intuition, compared to a specific checklist for each play.
To better understand the effect of Rodgers’ release time, PackersNews clocked the time between snap and throw before each of his 571 passes this season, including a pair of 2-point conversions. Then we clocked Rodgers’ release time before every pass he threw in 2011, his best statistical season, to compare then to now.
The outcomes were cataloged in half-second intervals, with the exception of passes released within one second of the snap, which were grouped collectively. For this story, they were classified under three subdivisions: two seconds and under (quick passes), 2.01 to 4 seconds (multiple progressions or deep shots), and over 4 seconds (extended plays).
Side by side, the two seasons showed a minimal decline when Rodgers is on schedule in the offense, but the magic on extended plays that once separated him from other quarterbacks is all but gone.
2 seconds and under
2019 (33.27% of passes thrown): 149 completions, 190 attempts, 78.42%, 1,152 yards, 6.06 average yards per pass, 6 touchdowns, 0 interceptions, 102.46 rating
2011 (28.11%): 114-140, 81.42%, 975 yards, 6.96 avg, 16 TD, 2 INT, 127.83 rating
In the passing game, efficiency and explosiveness are a sliding scale. It is hard to have one without sacrificing the other. Which made the 2011 Packers special.
With Rodgers behind center and a deep group of receivers around him, the 2011 Packers were efficiently explosive.
That was not only seen in their tendency to hit big gains on extended plays, but also their ruthlessness on quick, short passes. In 2011, Rodgers averaged almost a full yard more than this season for every pass that followed a release time of two seconds or fewer. He also threw 10 more touchdowns on quick passes, and though he threw two interceptions, his passer rating was 25.37 points higher.
The Packers hit only a handful of home runs in their quick-passing game this season. Rodgers’ 67-yard touchdown to running back Aaron Jones in Kansas City came with a release time of .93 seconds. His 69-yard touchdown to Marquez Valdes-Scantling against Oakland came with a 1.73-second release. On both plays, Jones and MVS caught Rodgers’ pass near the line of scrimmage. The Packers relied on their speed, but also Rodgers’ quick release and ball placement to lead his receiver into a big play.
Where the 2019 Packers have not been explosive in the pass game, they have retained efficiency when Rodgers uses a quick release. Rodgers, a lifelong byproduct of the West Coast offense, said he prioritizes efficiency over explosiveness.
“If you watch the oldest West Coast clips,” he said, “the efficiency of ball placement allows for the simple plays to become home run plays. Sometimes you need a guy like Jerry Rice to do that, or John Taylor, but efficiency in the passing game, there’s really nothing that compares to that.
“Explosive stuff, we have some of that stuff in the offense, but we’ve got to keep working through it. But the efficiency, there’s always opportunities for efficiency.”
Coach Matt LaFleur employs the quick-passing game differently than former Packers coach Mike McCarthy, especially on throws released within a second of the snap. Rodgers threw 32 passes with a release time under one second this season, double his 16 in 2011.
The bulk of Rodgers’ passes with less than a second release time have come on jet sweeps from his receiver, a play LaFleur introduced this season. Rodgers’ passes between one second and two are mostly single-progression throws, or catch and throw.
LaFleur riffs off the jet-sweep pass, using the motion to disguise other plays.
“We have plays that play off of that,” LaFleur said, “whether it’s running the other way, whether it’s throwing a screen off it, whether it’s throwing a play-action pass off it, so we try to build it in such a way that you have multiple things you can do off of it.”
Still, the jet-sweep pass has been a productive piece of the Packers’ offense this season. When releasing the football in less than a second, Rodgers has completed 81.25% of his throws for 184 yards and four touchdowns, a 130.21 rating that is higher than any other half-second interval. That’s also higher than 2011, when his rating with a release time of one second and under was 127.34.
2.01 to 4 seconds
2019 (50.78%): 167-290, 57.58%, 2,270 yards, 7.82 avg, 18 TD, 4 INT, 97.63 rating
2011 (58.43%): 189-291, 64.94%, 2,820 yards, 9.69 avg, 19 TD, 3 INT, 114.05 rating
The base of an NFL passing offense happens here. These are multiple-progression throws, the quarterback looking off one receiver, a second receiver, a third. If the quarterback is going to release his pass within the structure of the playbook, it’s almost always happening within four seconds of the snap.
In this window, Rodgers remains an effective passer. On its own, Rodgers’ 97.63 rating with a release time between 2.01 and 4 seconds would rank 11th in the NFL. Considering the talent gap at receiver around him compared to 2011, that regression isn’t as precipitous as the 16.42-point difference from his MVP season indicates.
The problem, perhaps, is how infrequently the Packers have been on schedule. Only a shade more than half of Rodgers’ passes in 2019 were released in this window. Even with the Packers’ increased emphasis in the quick-passing game, that leaves a significantly smaller percentage of passes being thrown within four seconds of the snap.
That’s reflected, ever so slightly, in Rodgers’ average release times between the two seasons. In 2011, Rodgers’ average time to throw was 2.81 seconds. This season, it’s expanded to 2.88. Those .07 seconds might seem inconsequential, but imagine the difference between a receiver running his 40 in 4.50 seconds compared to 4.43. Every tick counts.
The Packers don’t seem troubled by Rodgers’ slower release time.
“This is as good,” quarterbacks coach Luke Getsy said, “as I ever remember him (staying on time) with our style of offense.”
As a blocker, left tackle David Bakhtiari said it feels like Rodgers’ passes are being released quicker this season, no matter the stopwatch. He attributed it to the basic function of LaFleur’s system compared to McCarthy’s. “The way certain plays develop in this offense,” Bakhtiari said, “is different.” Under McCarthy, the Packers were more vertical in their passing game, meaning more traditional quarterback drops. There was little mystery when the Packers were going to pass.
“It was like, we know we have to hold onto our ass,” Bakhtiari said. “They know we’re passing.”
LaFleur develops pass plays with a “moving pocket,” Bakhtiari said. It’s designed to use the flow of the offensive line to camouflage the difference between a run and pass, at least off the snap. Sprinkle in more play-action fakes, and Bakhtiari said LaFleur’s passing game keeps defenses guessing.
“There’s more guys in the blocking scheme,” Bakhtiari said. “A lot more you have to look at.”
Rodgers’ sweet spot this season has been releasing passes between 2.51 and 3.50 seconds. He completed 81-of-135 passes (60%) for 1,179 yards, 13 touchdowns, no interceptions and a 120.57 rating in that window.
That’s significantly better than his 96-of-155 completion rate (61.9%) for 1,457 yards, nine touchdowns and two interceptions with a 106.84 rating in the same interval during 2011.
Over 4 seconds
2019 (15.93%): 39-91, 42.85%, 584 yards, 6.41 avg, 2 TD, 0 INT, 71.86 rating
2011 (13.4%): 40-67, 59.70%, 848 yards, 12.65 avg 10 TD, INT, 137.28 rating
Each pass play is tied to a specific quarterback drop: three steps, five steps, seven. Each route is tied to the drop, so a receiver completes it when the quarterback is ready to throw. Rodgers scans through his progressions at the snap. If he gets to his final progression, completing his checklist without identifying an open receiver, he must make a decision.
This is where Rodgers historically has been one of the game’s greatest. The key, he said, is one basic rule.
“Listening to my feet,” Rodgers explained. “Based on the rhythm, I know when the ball’s got to come out, or I’ve got to move, depending if I feel like the pocket allows.”
Almost any pass play lasting more than four seconds is, by definition, extended. In 2011, Rodgers and a group of receivers that included Jordy Nelson, Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, James Jones, Randall Cobb and tight end Jermichael Finley were sublime. The Packers extended only 13.4% of their pass plays beyond four seconds that season — 2.53 percentage points less frequent than this season — but Rodgers threw a touchdown pass once every 6.7 passes. This season, Rodgers has thrown a touchdown once every 45.5 extended passes.
The difference in passer rating is colossal. Rodgers’ 137.28 rating on extended plays in 2011 must rank as one of the most impressive feats in recent quarterbacking. His 71.86 rating this season isn’t even pedestrian.
“That group,” Rodgers said of his 2011 receivers, “really understood the scramble drill, I think. We had guys, I mean, Jordy was the best ever with it. We had guys who really understood, I think, what that felt like, and where to get to in those drills. I think that’s been one of the bigger problems, and you’ve seen it when you watch the film out, is just not being on the same page in that scramble drill.
“Whether it’s guys boxing out instead of pushing up and coming back, or guys coming short when they should be going deep, or two guys running the same area, we just haven’t had the success.”
Behind Davante Adams, a former second-round pick, not a single receiver on the Packers roster was drafted before the fourth round. Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who has been in a slump with only five receptions since October, is the only other receiver who was drafted. The lack of pedigree is vastly different than that 2011 group, which included three receivers drafted in the second round, two drafted in the third, and the franchise’s all-time receiving leader.
Rodgers emphasized the lack of chemistry on extended plays with his current receivers is about their experience with him on the field, not talent. When receivers enter the Packers’ offense, they’re faced with a different set of rules, because this is a different quarterback. They know the play doesn’t end with their route.
“I don’t know when it jelled,” Adams said, “but it takes a little bit of time. I don’t know if it can happen within a year, but it just depends on how many opportunities you get. It’s the reps. It’s nothing you can do unless, I mean, talking about it will help – but you need those game reps to make a difference.”
There are other factors beyond a new group of pass catchers. LaFleur’s scheme-focused offense allows less freelancing, Rodgers said. With McCarthy, who prioritized matchups, there was a smoother transition into the scramble drill. If Packers receivers didn’t win their matchup early in a play, chances were the play would extend.
Rodgers’ waning mobility is another factor. At 36 years old, he is not the dynamic athlete he was at 28. Rodgers used his 4.66 speed to gain yards when plays broke down, yes, but also to dictate the defense, opening windows to throw.
“I think it’d be dumb,” Rodgers said of his mobility, “to say it doesn’t play any part. I don’t think it plays a huge part. I feel like the way that my knee felt at 28, it almost feels better at 36 because I had work done on it after the ’15 season, and I think I’ve taken care of myself a little better as I’ve gotten older flexibility-wise. I don’t know if I’m a 4.66 40 guy like I was coming out. That being said, I feel like I have limited ability to get out of the pocket, I still run for first downs and extended plays.
“We just haven’t been on the same page a lot of times in the scramble drill.”
Therein, perhaps, lies the answer.
Taking inventory of the Packers’ passing game this season, their strengths and weaknesses surface. For Rodgers, a different quarterback with a different skill group at a different stage in his career, the ideal balance between staying within the offense’s framework and extending plays has flipped. When the Packers extended plays in 2011, Rodgers’ passer rating increased 17.69 points. This season, it’s decreased 25.73.
Yet the Packers are extending plays more frequently than even during his best season.
“I think,” Rodgers said, “we just don’t have that rapport because there are so many kind of new guys who don’t quite understand the scramble drill like that group did in ’11.”
The numbers back that up.