Opinion: Packers must weigh risk vs. reward of mending fences with Aaron Rodgers
GREEN BAY, Wis. — It’s anyone’s guess what the Green Bay Packers can do — aside from removing general manager Brian Gutekunst and president Mark Murphy — to get quarterback Aaron Rodgers to put aside his gripe with the front office and return to work.
But one incentive that speaks louder than any other to a professional athlete who purportedly feels he isn’t wanted is money.
The use of a first-round pick last year on a quarterback might seem to be at the heart of Rodgers’ hurt feelings, but let’s face it, if they had approached him after the season and offered to guarantee the final three years of his contract the Packers might not be in this situation.
The question is how much would it take now for Rodgers to overlook his grudge over the Jordan Love selection or the failure to inform him it was coming or the decision to cut Jordy Nelson and Jake Kumerow or whatever the heck else it is that is causing him to dig in so deeply.
And is it worth paying it given the salary-cap ramifications?
The answer is no if Rodgers is looking for fully guaranteed salary and a massive raise.
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If Rodgers were to ask for just his final three years guaranteed and no additional money, the Packers could handle it. They would still have cap issues this year and next year, but they could create room by stretching out Rodgers’ contract with phony voidable years and spreading some of the cap hit beyond three years.
Given the number of big contracts they have handed out (David Bakhtiari, Kenny Clark, Aaron Jones) and will need to hand out in the next year or two (Davante Adams, Jaire Alexander, Za’Darius Smith, Elgton Jenkins), they can use every cap dollar they have, but if they really don’t feel they can win without Rodgers, they can afford to guarantee three years.
But suppose Rodgers wants to make them pay dearly to get him back? He often brings up his MVP award being “a wrench” in the Packers’ plans to get rid of him and it’s clear he views himself as being able to play at that level for three more years despite being 37 years old. If traded to another team, his deal would almost certainly be beefed up to $40 million or more per year.
So, why wouldn’t he ask for the moon?
If that’s the case, Gutekunst, Murphy and executive vice president Russ Ball must weigh how far they can go before the money threatens to mortgage the future and set up the organization for its first rebuild since the early 1990s.
Several personnel people and well-established agents said it’s not inconceivable Rodgers is asking for the final three years of his contract to be guaranteed along with a raise that would earn him $40 million per year, making him the second-highest paid quarterback in the NFL behind Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes ($45 million per year).
In other words, $120 million for three years.
If the Packers were to do that, they could easily wind up with $70 million of leftover salary-cap charge after Rodgers' deal expires. That is double the largest “dead money” cap hit in NFL history of $33.8 million the Philadelphia Eagles took on when they traded quarterback Carson Wentz to Indianapolis this spring.
With a $70 million “dead money” hit, approximately one third of the Packers’ cap in ’24 would be gone. They would have to slash payroll to make it all work and likely let their best free agents go.
It’s not worth going that far, and they should trade him if that’s his demand.
Even if Rodgers gave the Packers a break and said he would return for $35 million guaranteed for each of the final three years, they could wind up with a $58 million hit in ’24. If he agreed to $30 million guaranteed for three years, the Packers might be able to knock his “dead money” in ’24 down to between $30-35 million.
“This is where Green Bay has to be strong,” one of the agents said. “Are you really going to go to $40 million?”
To see how a major commitment to Rodgers would affect the Packers in the long term, the agent, who has negotiated multiple quarterback contracts, agreed to lay out how the Packers would probably structure a mega-deal for Rodgers. A former general manager, who also has negotiated quarterback contracts, said his expectation for how a new deal would play out was the same.
The exercise consists of taking into account the $65.7 million remaining on the final three years of Rodgers’ existing contract, salary cap and contractual rules that would apply and the need for the Packers to stay under less-than-ideal expected cap limits in ’21 and ’22.
Rodgers has made $109.8 million since signing his contract extension three years ago, an average of $36.6 million. Because so much of the deal was paid upfront (including a $57 million signing bonus), his salaries the final three years aren’t extraordinary.
Here is what Rodgers is owed over next three years with his salary cap number in parentheses:
2021: $14.7 million base salary, $500,000 workout bonus ($37.2 million)
2022: $25 million base salary, $500,000 workout bonus ($39.852 million)
2023: $25 million base salary, $500,000 workout bonus ($28.352 million)
The Packers would have to add $54.3 million to that deal to reach $120 million and the process would require restructuring the contract after each season to keep Rodgers’ salary-cap hits reasonable. Just splitting the $54.3 million in thirds and adding it to each season would result in whopping cap numbers of $55.3 million in ’21, $57.952 million in ’22 and $46.452 million in ’23.
For perspective, consider that Rodgers already has the highest cap number in the NFL this year at $37.2 million. Standing at $5 million under the cap, Gutekunst and Ball would immediately have to shave $13 million just to sign Rodgers to the $120 million deal.
So, the distribution of the $54.3 million becomes an exercise in digging a new hole every year to place the pile of cap obligation added the previous year. There is no getting away from that pile no matter how many times you dig a new hole.
The agent predicted the Packers would start out paying Rodgers a signing bonus of $38.65 million, which would be made up of $25 million of new money and $13.625 million of the $14.7 million base salary he is owed this year (they have to leave at least $1.075 million for his base per salary-cap rules).
They would add two voidable years (added strictly for salary-cap calculation) to help them tuck away a portion of the $38.65 million cap hit until Rodgers was done playing. By converting that money into a signing bonus, they get to spread it out evenly over a maximum of five years (three years of existing contract and the two phony years), thus reducing Rodgers’ cap hit from $37.2 million to $29.952.
Currently $5 million under the cap, the Packers would then have $12 million in cap space to get them through the ’21 season.
The problem is Rodgers’ cap numbers would then accelerate to $47.577 million in ’22 and $45.377 million in ’23. Since the only new money added thus far was the $25 million signing bonus, the Packers still would need to add $29.3 million more in salary to get him to the needed $54.3 million addition.
The agent suggested the Packers would cover that $29.3 million with guaranteed roster bonuses of $10 million in ’22 and $19.3 million in ’23.
Now, Rodgers’ cap number would jump to $57.577 million in ‘22, so the Packers would again have to restructure to get his cap number to a reasonable figure. They could take the $25 million in base salary he is due in 2022 and the $10 million roster bonus just added and convert it all into a signing bonus.
By adding another voidable year, they could spread the charge into five equal portions.
This would drop Rodgers’ cap number in '22 to a very manageable $29.973 million.
In ’23, the salary cap is expected to rise significantly, but Rodgers’ cap number will have accelerated to a whopping $62.13 million. It would be almost impossible for the Packers to part ways with Rodgers because of the cap ramifications.
Once again, his cap number would have to be dealt with similar to the past two years. So, if the Packers converted a portion of the $25 million base salary and the $19.3 million roster bonus into a signing bonus and added another voidable year, Rodgers’ cap number would go down to a very manageable $27.645 million.
But the leftover salary-cap charge from all the previous maneuvering would be $70.286 million.
Now, consider that Bakhtiari’s cap number in ’24 is $30.3 million and Clark’s is $22 million and that Adams, Jenkins, Alexander and Smith would be in at least the second year of new blockbuster deals and you see the problem the Packers face giving Rodgers $120 million over three years.
The Packers would be considering the ’24 salary cap with just about every move they make from the Rodgers deal forward and chances are they would have to clean house to get in line with the cap.
Worse yet, if the 37-year-old quarterback were to suffer a debilitating injury (he has suffered multiple concussions, two broken collarbones, a broken foot, a tibial plateau fracture, an MCL sprain and a calf strain during the course of his 16-year career) or experience a dramatic drop-off in performance that would force the Packers to move on, they would be stuck with massive cap charges and nothing to show for it.
The more Rodgers asks for, the harder it will be for the Packers to overcome that contract in the future.
If Rodgers comes back and leads them to a Super Bowl, maybe it would all be worth it. Maybe he’ll play at a high level longer than just three years and the Packers would be able to push some of the cap hurt into years when the salary cap is more robust.
It’s all something Murphy, Gutekunst and Ball must weigh as they decide the franchise’s direction: the risk vs. reward of mending fences with Rodgers. But paying him top dollar and guaranteeing it all can’t be the final outcome.