Why trading Aaron Rodgers would be better for health of Packers' salary cap than keeping him
GREEN BAY, Wis. – It’s looking more and more like the Green Bay Packers’ best option should quarterback Aaron Rodgers return for another season is to trade him.
For all the rumors being thrown around connecting him to the Las Vegas Raiders, New York Jets and any other number of teams looking for a quarterback, the bottom line is having Rodgers on the roster this season would be worse for the Packers’ salary cap outlook than if he were traded.
It all has to do with the terms of the three-year, mostly guaranteed $150.8 million contract Rodgers signed on March 8 last year.
The contract the Packers delivered to Rodgers was probably the most onerous in NFL history. (At least it was until 10 days later when the Cleveland Browns signed DeShaun Watson to a five-year, fully guaranteed $230 million contract.)
It has the Packers in a pickle if he decides to play.
Trade him and the amount he counts against the cap goes up about $9 million. Keep him and his cap number balloons to $68 million in 2024.
It’s no wonder Rodgers has spoken a considerable amount about playing for a new team since the season ended. The best scenario for the Packers appears to be a trade and Rodgers probably knows it. Retirement would be the best option for the Packers' salary cap, but few are betting on Rodgers hanging it up this year.
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For now, he holds all the cards and so the Packers will wait to see what he does.
Here are answers to some questions regarding Rodgers’ future:
Why does trading Aaron Rodgers raise his salary cap number?
It’s no secret around the NFL that the Packers face another year of digging themselves out of a salary cap hole and trading Rodgers would only make it worse.
Trading Rodgers means his $31,623,568 million salary cap number would increase to $40,313,568, even though he wouldn’t be on the Packers' roster. The $40.3 million is leftover cap charges from his previous two signing bonuses, which were pushed to the future to lessen their impact at the time.
Once he is traded, all those future cap charges accelerate into the current year.
That $40.3 million – or slightly less than one-fifth of the $224.8 million league salary cap limit this year – would be attributed to an empty roster spot. There’s a reason they call those charges “dead money”.
Why would it be better to trade Aaron Rodgers than keep him?
Unless Rodgers' return would guarantee a Super Bowl victory, keeping him another year wouldn’t be worth it.
It would require paying him a $58.3 million option bonus before the season starts. Treated like a signing bonus, the $58.3 million would be spread over the remaining four years of the contract ($14.575 million per year) for salary cap purposes.
His salary cap number would remain at the $31.6 million mentioned earlier.
But paying him that $58.3 million means there’s $58.3 million that must be accounted for with the cap. Add all the existing signing and option bonuses that remain and Rodgers’ cap number, if the Packers part ways with him after the '23 season, would weigh in at a whopping $68.7 million.
If Rodgers decided he wanted to play another year, the Packers would cut him or trade him because keeping him another year would add $47 million more to that growing cap obligation weighing them down.
If Rodgers were to retire after ’23, there is a way to spread that $68.7 million over two years. But $68.7 million is $68.7 million and it would occupy a lot of valuable space on the Packers' future cap, especially if they want to sign quarterback Jordan Love to a starter’s contract in ’25.
What if Aaron Rodgers wants to play for the Packers this season?
The club has almost no choice but to honor his wish. They would have trouble trading him because he would probably tell any prospective team that if he is traded, he’s going to retire.
If the Packers were to cut him, Rodgers would still receive the $58.3 million because it is fully guaranteed, and the “dead money” they would carry would be an unmanageable $99.8 million. The Packers would have to cut some of their highest-paid players and restructure contracts to push cap money into the future with many more.
They would be playing with a lot of minimum-wage players.
The Packers could play hardball and tell Rodgers that they’re going to start Love, and he would be the highest-paid backup in the history of the NFL, but for $58.3 million he might just do it. More than likely, they would tell him they’re moving on from buddies Randall Cobb, Marcedes Lewis and Mason Crosby and try to get him to see his best option would be to play elsewhere.
What would happen to Aaron Rodgers' contract if he's traded?
It goes with him.
His new club would have to take on the $58.3 million option bonus due before the start of the season as well as the $47 million option bonus included in 2024. Rodgers has said regardless of where he goes, his contract would have to be adjusted, so if a team trades for him, they can restructure it in a cap-friendly way for ’23.
The only cap charge to the Packers would be the $40.3 million discussed above.
Where does the Packers' salary cap stand right now?
It’s not good.
The Packers have 55 players under contract and are roughly $20 million over the $224.8 million limit. Trading Rodgers would put them around $30 million over. Currently, $7 million of their obligation belongs to players no longer on the roster and another $7.9 million will be added if the Packers don’t sign safety Adrian Amos to an extension before March.
Last year, the Packers went into the off-season about $50 million over the cap, but with a series of contract restructures and cuts, they were able to get in compliance. They were even able to re-sign some of their unrestricted free agents, including cornerback Rasul Douglas and linebacker De’Vondre Campbell.
They also had to let some players go, including trading receiver Davante Adams to Las Vegas and letting receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling sign with Kansas City.
How will the Packers get under the salary cap?
Once they know whether Rodgers is returning, the Packers will start to restructure some contracts to push salary cap charges into the future.
The Packers have a handful of players they can tap for considerable cap relief through restructures.
The top options are running back Aaron Jones, nose tackle Kenny Clark, outside linebacker Preston Smith, cornerback Jaire Alexander and left tackle David Bakhtiari.
The Packers also have some unrestricted free agents to consider re-signing, including tight end Robert Tonyan, receiver Allen Lazard, returner Keisean Nixon, safety Dallin Leavitt, defensive linemen Dean Lowry and Jarran Reed, Crosby and Amos. Tackle Yosh Nijman and linebacker Krys Barnes are restricted free agents who will require qualifying offers if the Packers want to keep them.