Packers’ decisions would have been fatal were they not playing the Bears: Analysis
CHICAGO – Decisions, decisions.
Green Bay Packers coach Matt LaFleur and quarterback Jordan Love are paid to make good ones.
When they make bad ones, the consequences are sizable.
Except, it seems, when they’re playing the Chicago Bears, who outperformed, outmaneuvered and outthought the Packers more than enough times to be on the winning side of the rivals’ 207th meeting Sunday at Soldier Field.
But, alas, defensive lineman Karl Brooks blocked kicker Cairo Santos’ 46-yard game-winning attempt as time expired, securing a 20-19 Packers victory that increased their winning streak in the series to an all-time high of 11 games and raised their season record to 7-3.
“I told our guys, we’ll never, ever apologize for winning,” LaFleur said afterward. “We’ll take it.”
They can take it, but they probably don’t want to put it up on their mantel or post video of it on social media.
If this had been a driver’s test, the Packers would been sent back to the classroom. If they were selling a stock, its worth would have quadrupled two hours later. If they had bought a house, they would have been told the next day that it was on a floodplain.
The reason they won is because the Packers are a more talented football team than the Bears. Some of those questionable-to-poor decisions worked out because receiver Christian Watson can outrun anyone in the Bears’ defensive backfield and Brooks and T.J. Slaton can bulldoze the interior of the Bears’ field goal-block team.
So what were those decisions that nearly cost the Packers an essential NFC North victory?
Here are a few in chronological order:
Matt LaFleur calls for a pass on second-and-1 at the 5-yard line
The Packers' running backs were flexing their muscles both on the ground and in the air on a drive that started at their 24-yard line early in the second quarter. On first-and-10 at the 14, Josh Jacobs ran for 9 yards. The Packers needed a yard for a first down and 5 for a touchdown.
So, what did LaFleur call? A play-action pass. Nobody was open, Love had to throw it away and guard Elgton Jenkins was called for ineligible man downfield.
“I should have run the ball downhill,” LaFleur said.
Now it’s second-and-6 at the 10. So, what did LaFleur call? An end around to Jayden Reed that lost 5 yards.
“We missed a block on the perimeter,” LaFleur said. “We never got the defensive back. He was able to play it outside. If you go backwards in the red area, it's tough sled. And that's what happened.”
On third-and-15, Love dropped back to pass and had tight end Tucker Kraft wide open at about the 5-yard line, right where LaFleur wanted him. Love sailed the pass over Kraft’s head and safety Terrell Smith picked it off.
“I missed it high,” Love said. “It was just a bad throw."
Jordan Love hits Christian Watson for a 48-yard completion
The Packers were down 19-14 when they got the ball at their 24 with 26 seconds left in the third quarter. On their previous series, Jacobs had three carries for 15 yards and one catch for 21 yards on a six-play, 70-yard touchdown drive.
On first down, Jacobs caught an 8-yard pass. On second down, he ran for 12 yards. It’s first down on the Green Bay 44 and Love set up to pass. Nothing is there, so he scrambled right and heaved a pass off his back foot toward Watson and two Bears defenders.
The Packers are riding the Jacobs wave and starting to soften up the Bears defense. It’s only their second possession of the second half. And Love decides to throw into double coverage, not unlike he has on several of his interceptions this season.
“When I started moving, the safety was kind of playing both Christian and Tucker,” Love explained. “I saw Christian put his hand up, he was going deep, and I thought he was beyond the safety. And I think the safety did a good job, turning his hips and taking Christian.
“But you know, anytime the ball is in the air, we let him win, a receiver to go up and make that play and make it right. That was a big-time play by Christian.”
Said LaFleur: “I thought Tucker was open underneath. But he’s (Love) got a lot of faith in his weapons and that’s one thing I admire about him. He trusts those guys.”
Sure, but if the ball been intercepted, the Packers might have handed the game over.
Matt LaFleur goes for it on fourth-and-goal at the Chicago 6
The Watson completion got the Packers in scoring position, but after Love was sacked for a 1-yard loss on third-and-goal at the 5, it seemed like a no brainer to take the points. The Packers were still down 19-14 and allowing Brandon McManus to kick a 23-yard field goal would have made it a 2-point game.
“Possessions were at a premium,” LaFleur said. “There were three possessions in the first half and a handful in the second half. I didn’t know when we were going to get the ball back.
“I don't know what all you analytical people say out there, whether you should go for it, kick it. I just thought, you know, we're on the 5-yard line. Let's go for it.”
Love looked first to Reed, who raised his hand as he ran to the deep left corner of the end zone. But the Bears were in a Cover-2 zone and cornerback Jaylon Johnson was playing between the flat route (Romeo Doubs) and the corner route.
“I was looking at the corner, trying to read him,” Love said. “He had his hips turned and he could play both of them. Jaylon’s a really good corner. I’ve seen him make those plays before, so I decided to get off it.”
His next read was Dontayvion Wicks coming across the middle from the other side. But there was a safety waiting for him in the middle of the field.
“He was going to be covered, too,” LaFleur said. “I don’t think the play was a good enough play design. They did a good job of packing in their safeties. We had an end cut (Wicks) and we just couldn’t cross his (the safety’s) face. We’ve got to be better as coaches and try to come up with a better play.”
Love took off running and came up just short of the pylon, giving the Bears the ball at their 1 with 11:19 to go. It could have been a devastating missed opportunity.
Matt LaFleur challenges Jordan Love’s dive toward the pylon late in the fourth quarter
It was clear on replay that Love’s dive on first-and-goal at the Chicago 14 was short. Love had scrambled 13 yards to give the Packers a first down near the goal line and so wasting a timeout didn’t seem worth the challenge.
The Packers lost the challenge and were left with one timeout, which could have come in handy if Chicago had taken the lead with enough time for the Packers to drive down the field and take it back.
As it turned out, it didn’t hurt the Packers. They never needed the timeout. Even though they failed on their 2-point conversion, they survived. Brooks took care of that.
And they were fortunate enough to be playing the Bears.