If Mac Jones is out for a long while, are the Patriots' postseason hopes dashed? It depends

FOXBORO — Matthew Slater has been around the NFL long enough to know what an injury to a starting quarterback can do to a team. That’s why the longtime Patriots captain didn’t mince words this week when he was asked how the Patriots will respond in the wake of Mac Jones suffering a high ankle sprain.

Just how long Jones will be out remains unclear, but the thought is the quarterback will miss multiple games.

“I do believe that we’ll respond the right way,” Slater said. “We’re very early on in our season here, and if we don’t handle it the right way, this thing can spiral away from us. Needless to say, you lose a player at that position of that caliber, it is challenging.”

I don’t want to mince my words, either. Mac Jones suffering an injury that could keep him out for weeks or months is one of the worst-case scenarios for the 2022 Patriots. The goal for this season was not just get back to the playoffs but to see their young quarterback take that "Year 2 jump."

However many games Jones misses will hurt his development. Every snap is important. Time away will only hurt. This situation doesn’t help the Patriots or their promising quarterback, who has struggled in the first three games this season.

The big question now is whether the Patriots can find a route to the playoffs. The answer depends on how long Jones will be out. If he misses most of the 2022 season, it would all but mean a likely top-10 draft pick for the Patriots. If Jones is out just 4-6 weeks, there still could be hope.

Patriots schedule offers some hope

In the event the Patriots lose Jones for the next five games, their schedule actually is favorable with the Packers (2-1), Detroit Lions (1-2), Cleveland Browns (2-1), Chicago Bears (2-1) and New York Jets (1-2). The key will be to lean on the defense and the running game for however long Jones is sidelined. 

After taking on Aaron Rodgers, the Pats' defense will see quarterbacks Jared Goff, Jacoby Brissett, Justin Fields and Zach Wilson.

If the Patriots can get to .500 or above by the time Jones returns, this team could still lock in a playoff spot if it gets hot in the second half of the season. There are two prime examples right now in the NFL that should inspire hope among Patriots fans — the Cleveland Browns and Dallas Cowboys.

The Browns are without quarterback Deshaun Watson for the first 11 games of the 2022 season because of many sexual harassment allegations. That’s why the team is starting Brissett, a former Patriots backup. Right now, the Browns are 2-1 with wins over the Carolina Panthers and Pittsburgh Steelers.

Cleveland is averaging only 188 passing yards per game, which is 27th in the NFL.  The Browns are scoring 28.3 points per game, however, which is sixth best in the league. They are accomplishing this mostly because of their running game. The Browns are averaging an NFL-best 190.7 rushing yards per game.

The Cowboys lost quarterback Dak Prescott in their first game when he injured his thumb. Dallas, however, has won its last two games with backup Cooper Rush. The Cowboys beat the Cincinnati Bengals by a score of 20-17 and the New York Giants by a score of 23-16. The key for Dallas is its defense. That unit is eighth in the NFL, allowing 17.3 points per game.

The Patriots should follow the leads of the Browns and Cowboys. The easiest path to victory is to hold an opponent to fewer than 20 points and lean on the running game. With the quarterbacks on the schedule, after Rodgers, that’s not impossible.

A reason for pessimism

The Browns and Cowboys have shown that you can win "some games"  with a backup quarterback, but there are many teams that have trended in the opposite direction. Patriots coaches Joe Judge and Matt Patricia can attest to the heartache that comes with quarterback health problems.

In Judge's first year as head coach of the Giants, he lost starter Daniel Jones for two weeks. New York went 1-1 with backup Colt McCoy. The next season, however, was a disaster, and the Giants were dealing with more injuries than that of their quarterback. Jones missed six games in 2021 and the Giants went 0-6 with backups Mike Glennon (0-4) and Jake Fromm (0-2).

Patricia dealt with something similar in 2019 as the head coach of the Detroit Lions. Quarterback Matthew Stafford missed eight games that season. The Lions went 0-8 with backups David Blough (0-5) and Jeff Driskel (0-3).

When they were asked about what they learned from those situations, Judge and Patricia offered up different explanations. 

“Obviously, quarterback is a very big position; let's not pretend it’s not," Judge said. "But whatever the position is, everybody’s job is to be ready to play at whatever position that is.

"By executing at practice and earning the confidence of your teammates, that’s what keeps it from being a big deal. So our guys come to work every day, they work hard, correct mistakes and execute. That’s the biggest thing you’ve got to see.”

“We always take things day-by-day," Patricia said. "Similar to those situations you referenced in Detroit, that was kind of a day-by-day thing until [Stafford] couldn’t play anymore. Different than maybe back with Tom [Brady] and [backup quarterback Matt] Cassel, where we knew Cassel was going to have to come in and play in that situation [Brady was out for the 2008 season because of a knee injury]. For us, we just have to stay focused on the daily task at that point and make sure everyone is getting ready to go and prepare.

"I think the good thing about the roster in the NFL and what you’re trying to do — everybody on the roster is guys you try to keep around that you think can play and help you win. 

"I think the team understands, ‘Hey, this happens in the NFL and everyone has to prepare and do their jobs whatever that may be.' ”

Patriots have been here before

Part of winning without your starting quarterback comes down to the talent level on a team’s roster. In 2016, the Patriots went 3-1 without Brady while he served a four-game suspension for Deflategate. That situation saw the Pats start both Jimmy Garoppolo and then Jacoby Brissett.

Brady returned in Week 5 and the Patriots went 11-1 the rest of the way en route to a Super Bowl victory. The Pats also lost tight end Rob Gronkowski for the season. They had the greatest quarterback of all time to go with offensive pieces such as receiver Julian Edelman, tight end Martellus Bennett and pass-catching running back James White. Offensive tackle Marcus Cannon also earned All-Pro honors that season.

On defense, the Pats had some very good players in their front seven, such as linebackers Trey Flowers, Dont'a Hightower (a Pro Bowler) and Rob Ninkovich, and defensive ends Chris Long and Jabaal Sheard. Their secondary was led by Pro Bowl and All-Pro safety Devin McCourty and All-Pro cornerback Malcolm Butler.

Talent level is the difference between the Patriots' 2016 and 2022 teams. The 2016 team had three All-Pros on offense (Brady, Cannon and fullback James Develin) and two on defense (McCourty and Butler). It would be surprising if this year’s team had anywhere near as many as that.

On offense, the Pats don’t have Pro Bowl-caliber weapons and their offensive line is inconsistent. On defense, they lost Pro Bowl cornerback J.C. Jackson, but have Pro Bowl pass rusher Matthew Judon.

There should be no delusions of grandeur with this Patriots team. They were never going to win a Super Bowl. This season was about the team taking a step forward with their second-year quarterback. They’re now in danger of going backward.

Sure, there’s a path to the playoffs, but this season already feels like a disappointment.