NFL playoffs: Eight X-factors that could determine who wins AFC, NFC Championship Games
With just four teams left in the NFL playoffs facing off in their respective conference championship games Sunday, it’s not only the star players and obvious trends that will determine the outcomes. In each game, there are players, coaches and tactics simmering below the surface that will help determine who advances to Super Bowl LIII.
Here are two X-factors for each team in the conference title games.
New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs
Patriots
Pressure or fall back?
New England’s plan of sending blitzers while clamping down on receivers in man coverage worked brilliantly against the Chargers in the divisional round. But the Patriots will likely have to alter those tactics against the Chiefs.. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, New England pressured Philip Rivers on 70.6 percent of his dropbacks, the highest rate he's faced in any game this season. While Rivers’ numbers against pressure were significantly worse than when he wasn’t, Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes has excelled when facing a blitz. He posted the league’s second-best passer rating (117.7) and the third-best yards per attempt (8.9) against the blitz in 2018. Rather than using additional bodies to dial up pressure, coach Bill Belichick and defensive play-caller Brian Flores may try to slow Kansas City’s explosive passing game by utilizing complex coverages.
Covering Kelce
In New England's 43-40 win over Kansas City in Week 6, Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce caught just five of nine targets for 61 yards. Two of those receptions came in consecutive plays in the first series and resulted in 26 yards, but Kelce was pretty much a non-factor the rest of the way. Safeties Devin McCourty and Patrick Chung played a big role in helping keep the four-time Pro Bowl selection contained, but they had plenty of help. The Patriots often double-teamed Kelce – especially when the Chiefs were in the red zone, but often the responsibility fell on players like linebacker Dont’a Hightower and cornerback Jonathan Jones. On Sunday, a repeat performance will likely take another team effort.
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Chiefs
Rushing defense
This is perhaps the one vulnerability New England is best poised to exploit. The Chiefs ranked 27th in rushing defense, allowing 132.1 yards per game on the ground. The Patriots, over their last seven games, have averaged 158.1 rushing yards per game. In particular, the emergence of rookie running back Sony Michel and the continued improvement of New England’s offensive line have allowed the Patriots to become a team whose offensive identity is rooted to the ground attack. That ability helps open up play-action passes, so if the Chiefs can’t contain the Patriots' rush game, they may have trouble keeping New England out of the end zone.
Getting in Brady’s face
While the front seven yields too many rushing yards, this group collects sacks almost at will. Kansas City tied for first this season with 52 total and collected three more on Colts quarterback Andrew Luck in the divisional round – against the offensive line that led the regular season with the fewest sacks allowed (18). Typically, the surest way to fluster Brady in the past has been to generate pass rush on the interior of the Patriots' offensive line. That’s where defensive end Chris Jones comes in. If he can penetrate through the middle, he could disrupt the timing and rhythm of the Pats' offense.
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Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints
Rams
Running back C.J. Anderson
In the 2018 calendar year, three teams (the Broncos, Panthers and Raiders) parted with Anderson. Los Angeles signed him late in the season as a backup to Todd Gurley and as insurance after Malcolm Brown got hurt. All Anderson has done in three games with the Rams, including one playoff contest, is rush for 422 yards on 66 carries (for 6.4 yards a carry) and four touchdowns. If L.A. can get the rushing game going, it might be its best chance at an upset. The Saints, however, ranked second in the NFL this year, allowing just 80.2 rushing yards per game. But if the Rams can move the ball on the ground, they’ll control the clock and keep Drew Brees and New Orleans off the field.
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Cornerback Aqib Talib
Saints receiver Michael Thomas destroyed the Rams when these two teams faced off in Week 9 for 12 receptions for 211 yards and one score. Because Talib was on injured reserve at the time with an ankle injury, it was Marcus Peters who had to guard Thomas most of the game. With Talib not only healthy but also playing at an extremely high level, look for defensive coordinator Wade Phillips to try to slow Thomas down by matching him up with his top corner. He may even ask Talib to shadow Thomas all game long.
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Saints
Getting the ball out quickly
Brees has had arguably his most efficient season in his career. A large part of his success stems from his ability to get the ball out of his hands quickly and into those of his playmakers. Including the playoffs, Brees tossed passes this season in an average of 2.59 seconds, third-quickest in the NFL. His touchdown-to-interception ratio on passes released in fewer than 2.5 seconds this year was 18-to-3. The Rams, though, have been solid against quick throws. They’ve allowed a passer rating of 86.5 (fourth) and a 7-to-8 TD-to-interception ratio on throws faster than 2.5 seconds. That tempo is one of the cornerstones of New Orleans’ attack. If Brees and Co. can dictate the pace of the game, the Rams could be in trouble.
Right guard Larry Warford and right tackle Ryan Ramczyk
The Rams yielded an NFL-worst 5.1 rushing yards per carry in the regular season, though they did shut down the Cowboys and NFL rushing leader Ezekiel Elliott in the divisional round. Even though Brees and Thomas draw most of the praise heaped on the Saints' offense, running backs Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram can completely take over games. Kamara is shifty, is speedy and can score on any given play. Ingram is the bruiser in between the tackles. But New Orleans loves running off of the right side. In 2018, the Saints ran 72 rushing plays behind the right tackle, most in the NFL, and 105 plays behind the right guard, second most. Maximizing the production on those plays against Los Angeles may be the key to a trip to the Super Bowl.
Follow Lorenzo Reyes on Twitter @LorenzoGReyes.
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