Chiefs vs. Texans in NFL playoffs: Early predictions, odds, matchups to watch
The wild card round was a chalky one in the AFC.
All three division title-holders won their respective matchups in the first round, meaning the No. 1-seeded Kansas City Chiefs, who are coming out of their bye week, will play the No. 4 seed, the Houston Texans, in the divisional round.
It's a rematch of the two teams' Week 16 clash, which the Chiefs won, 27-19. It's also a rematch of the divisional round from five years ago, though the two teams were very different then – Kansas City had Tyreek Hill at wide receiver, and Deshaun Watson still played quarterback for the Texans. The Chiefs won that one as well, 51-31, after facing a 24-0 deficit.
Here's what to know about the first divisional round game in this year's NFL playoffs:
Chiefs vs. Texans odds
The Chiefs hold a significant edge over the Texans in the contest, according to the BetMGM NFL odds. Not interested in this game? Check out expert picks and best bets for every NFL game this week.
- Spread: Chiefs (-8)
- Moneyline: Chiefs (-500); Texans (+375)
- Over/under: 41.5
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Chiefs vs. Texans matchups to watch
All 106 players across the two teams' rosters will need to be ready to step up and contribute in a crucial postseason clash. However, these three matchups will be especially vital in Saturday's game.
Texans DE Will Anderson Jr. vs. Chiefs OTs
Anderson wreaked havoc against the Chargers last Saturday, deflecting two passes and recording three quarterback hits, 1.5 sacks and three tackles. His threatening presence on the Texans' defensive line over the last two years has caused fits for opposing offensive lines, and his ability to generate a pass rush against Mahomes will be important to help out his team's secondary defenders for a second straight game.
Of course, a pass rush can only do so much in the grand scheme of a football game. Mahomes took more sacks in 2024 than he had in any other season of his career, but the Chiefs still won 15 games.
Still, the more Anderson can disrupt Kansas City's pass attack, the bigger the chances Mahomes makes a mistake (or several) that can keep the Texans in the game despite their underdog status. After all, the Chiefs were a few more unlucky bounces away from a few extra losses during the regular season.
Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes vs. Texans defensive backs
Speaking of Mahomes and mistakes, he'll be looking to avoid the same pitfalls that sank Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert and his team.
Herbert threw four interceptions in the Chargers' wild-card game against the Texans – one more than he had thrown during the entire regular season. That was in part due to the efforts of guys like Anderson up front, but also because of Houston's stacked group of skilled defensive backs.
The cornerback trio of Kamari Lassiter, Derek Stingley Jr. and Jeff Okudah, along with safety Eric Murray, were a big part of why the Texans finished the 2024 regular season allowing the second-lowest success rate on dropbacks to opponents. Mahomes and his receivers helped the Chiefs finish in the top 10 of dropback success rate this year, so this matchup will be pitting strength against strength on Saturday.
Chiefs DT Chris Jones vs. Texans' interior offensive line
Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud was the second-most sacked quarterback in the NFL this year, taking 52 in total over the 18 weeks of the regular season. And though sacks are a quarterback stat, Houston's offensive line deserves at least some of the blame for the frequency at which Stroud took sacks.
The interior offensive line, in particular, has been an issue for Houston, and that much-maligned group will face a massive test on Saturday in Chris Jones.
Jones has been one of the best interior defensive linemen in the NFL for more than half of a decade and just was named first-team All-Pro for a third year in a row. He didn't rack up quite the same sacks total as he did with 25.5 across the 2022 and 2023 seasons, but he still tallied 38 pressures, which ranked sixth in the NFL and second of all interior D-linemen.
Jones will have a chance to feast against the Texans' interior offensive line, unless Texans offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik and offensive line coach Chris Strausser can find ways to slow him down.
Early prediction for Chiefs vs. Texans
- Chiefs 27, Texans 14
Houston deserves commendation for reaching this point after struggling for much of the season against strong opponents. Entering the playoffs, the Texans had only defeated one team that held a winning record at the end of the 2024 season: the Buffalo Bills in Week 5. But their defense showed up in a big way against the Chargers, and it was enough to send them to the divisional round.
The Chiefs, especially the playoffs version of the Chiefs, are a different beast entirely.
Mahomes and more than a few of Kansas City's starters have had two full weeks of rest entering the divisional round after sitting in Week 18 and enjoying a first-round bye with the AFC's No. 1 seed. In addition, their team is only getting healthier as players like wide receiver Marquise Brown, running back Isiah Pacheco and – possibly – cornerback Jaylen Watson make their returns from injuries. Mahomes also got another week off of his feet a few weeks after suffering a high ankle sprain.
That's a stark contrast with Houston's situation. The Texans lost receiver Stefon Diggs to a torn ACL earlier this season, and fellow wideout Tank Dell's season ended when he dislocated his kneecap against the Chiefs a few weeks ago.
Simply put, the Chiefs are a better, healthier team with more playoff experience. They're less prone to make the same mistakes that Herbert and the Chargers made in the wild card round, even against a talented defense like the Texans have.
Kansas City already defeated Houston once just a few weeks ago, and it gets home-field advantage once again in the playoff environment that Mahomes tends to thrive in. The Chiefs have never lost before the conference championship game with No. 15 starting under center, and that streak is likely to continue with a win this weekend.
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