Super Bowl same-game parlay: Our NFL experts picked your best bets for tonight's game
By now, most NFL bettors have their favorite prop bets locked in for Super Bowl 59. They have spent the last couple weeks breaking down the Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles matchup to find advantages.
Still, there is a little time remaining to lock in some profitable picks for the Big Game. That includes considering some longer-shot same-game parlays that could pay off in a big way.
Often, the instinct for NFL bettors is to bet a lot of overs in same-game parlays and hope the game might become a blowout. That said, savvy bettors can take advantage of games that profile as lower-scoring, defensive battles by adding some unders to their overall card.
What's the best same-game parlay for Super Bowl 59? Paste BN Sports breaks down the prop bets that are most likely to hit during the big game.
Super Bowl 59 same-game parlay
All odds are via BetMGM as of Sunday.
Total UNDER 49.5 (-125)
It's hard to imagine Super Bowl 59 being a high-scoring affair like the last Chiefs vs. Eagles Super Bowl. Kansas City and Philadelphia both ranked top-four in the NFL in scoring defense during the regular season and each has continued to be stingy during the postseason. The Eagles have allowed just 18.3 points per game across three playoff outings while the Chiefs have allowed 21.5 over two.
With that in mind, this Super Bowl matchup figures to be more of a defensive grind, much like last year's Chiefs vs. San Francisco 49ers game. That game went deep into overtime yet still only saw 47 total points scored.
Patrick Mahomes UNDER 1.5 passing TDs (+130)
One of the reasons the Super Bowl total figures to be lower is Mahomes' matchup against the Eagles secondary. Philadelphia ranks second league-wide in defensive EPA per passing play, and Mahomes has posted modest numbers in seven games against defenses that rank top 10 in that category.
More specifically, Mahomes has averaged 254.2 passing yards per game with a 93.22 passer rating in those outings. However, he has just six passing touchdowns in those seven games and has failed to record multiple passing touchdowns in any of those contests.
This prop bet is plus money but has a strong correlation with betting the under. That makes it an ideal fit in this same-game parlay.
Travis Kelce OVER 61.5 receiving yards (-115)
Not everything about the offenses in the Super Bowl will be doom-and-gloom. Kelce has a strong matchup against an Eagles defense that has struggled to defend tight ends since losing Nakobe Dean to a season-ending knee injury in the wild-card round against the Green Bay Packers.
Case and point, the Eagles allowed Tyler Higbee and Zach Ertz to combine for 18 catches, 163 yards and a touchdown in the two games following Dean's injury. Kelce has been hit-or-miss during his age-35 season, but he has averaged 73.3 receiving yards per game in his last three outings and 87.5 receiving yards per game in his four Super Bowl appearances.
Expect another big game for Kelce on the biggest stage.
Jalen Hurts anytime TD scorer (-115)
The Chiefs were able to stop the Buffalo Bills' "Tush Push" with Josh Allen during the AFC championship game. Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo wasn't optimistic when asked if he saw a way to stop the Eagles' signature play in the Super Bowl.
"I really don’t," Spagnuolo told reporters, per Fox Sports' Henry McKenna.
That should be good news for Hurts, who has scored a rushing touchdown in five of the last seven games he has played. Expect the Eagles to continue feeding him in goal-line situations while his overall mobility and speed will make him a threat to score from further out.