For Blackhawks, 'run and gun' Stanley Cup Final not to their liking

CHICAGO — The Chicago Blackhawks have owned a lead roughly 10 percent of the time in the Stanley Cup Final and yet they own 50% of the wins in the series.

That speaks to the understanding that the experienced Blackhawks have about how to win in the postseason, and also explains why the Blackhawks would probably prefer this to be a low-scoring series the rest of the way. Tied at two, the best-of-seven series with the Tampa Bay Lightning resumes Saturday in Tampa.

"These (Tampa Bay) guys are way better than anybody imagined at checking and trying to frustrate you," Blackhawks center Brad Richards said. "We're learning that mentality that it might be 2-1 games the rest of the way. Don't get caught up in thinking it's going to be run-and-gun. If we do that, we just feed them."

Both of the Blackhawks' wins have come on 2-1 decisions, and both of their losses came when they gave up three or more goals. Every game has been decided by one goal.

In the 240 minutes that have been played in the Stanley Cup Final, no team has owned a two-goal lead. The games have been tied 51.1% of the time and the Lightning have led 38.5% of the time.

This has been a heavy checking series. But let's not forget that the Blackhawks were the NHL's second-best defensive team during the regular season and the Lightning were the No. 1 offensive team. The Blackhawks boast high-profile scorers, but those guys may not be their most important players the rest of way. The Lightning scorers have proven to be more dangerous this postseason.

It's a given that goalie Corey Crawford has to be sharp for the Blackhawks to thrive, but their most important player may be No. 1 defenseman Duncan Keith. Whenever they are protecting a lead, he's the guy back there preventing the Blackhawks from being overrun.

He has played almost 119 minutes in this series, which means he has been on the ice about 49.5% of the time. That's an average of roughly 29:40 per game. He's undeniably a Conn Smythe Trophy candidate if the Blackhawks win the Stanley Cup.

With two of the next three games scheduled for Tampa, the Lightning still own an advantage, especially with last change. Keith's ability to log heavy minutes at a high level could negate that advantage. If this does become a low-scoring series, he is the Blackhawks' best asset.

"It's almost like the more he plays, the better he gets," Quenneville said. "The more he enjoys."

After Game 4, Quenneville was asked, half-jokingly, whether Keith could play all 60 minutes. "He prepares well," Quenneville said. "Took the morning off. He was ready to go all night."

If the following games are low-scoring, then it is not unreasonable to consider that Keith might play more than 32 minutes in regulation. He has already topped 31 minutes once in this series.

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