Toronto Maple Leafs preview: Top talent wears suits, not jerseys
2014-15 results: 30-44-8, seventh in the Atlantic Division
Arrivals: GM Lou Lamoriello, coach Mike Babcock, Cs Mark Arcobello and Shawn Matthias (free agents), RW P.A. Parenteau (free agent), forwards Curtis Glencross and Brad Boyes (PTOs), RW Michael Grabner (trade with Islanders).
Departures: GM Dave Nonis, RW Phil Kessel (trade to Pittsburgh), LW Taylor Beck (trade to Islanders).
Goaltending: Jonathan Bernier’s numbers (21-28-7, 2.87, .912) really aren’t bad, given how poorly the Maple Leafs play defensively. He could be part of the solution with an improved defensive team. His save percentage has been at around .918 in his two seasons in Toronto.
Analysis: The Leafs are in a full-blown rebuild, and fans probably would be disappointed if the team isn’t near the bottom of the standings. The Leafs need another blue-chip prospect to make this rebuild worthwhile. With Kessel gone, the Maple Leafs will have trouble scoring. Their defensive game will improve under Babcock. Other veterans could move during the season, maybe Joffrey Lupul and Tyler Bozak. Watching the Maple Leafs this season will be like watching the Buffalo Sabres last season.
What advanced stats say: The Maple Leafs finished 27th in Corsi, a measure of puck possession, last season, controlling 46.4% of the shot attempts.
Breakthrough candidate: C Nazem Kadri presumably will be given an opportunity this season to show whether he should be an important figure in the team’s future. He had 39 points last season, and he could be in the 55- or 60-point range this season.
Youngster to watch: William Nylander and Kasperi Kapanen, both sons of NHL players, are at the top of the prospect list, as is first-round pick Mitch Marner, but keep an eye on RW Connor Brown, a sixth-round pick in 2012. He might have been Toronto’s most consistent player at their American Hockey League affiliate. He scored 21 goals last season. The Maple Leafs are committed to not rushing their prospects, but Brown, 21, might get a chance this season.
What the team really needs: To trade Dion Phaneuf for a quality young defenseman. At 30, Phaneuf doesn’t truly fit into the team’s rebuilding plans. The issue in making a trade is that Phaneuf has six seasons remaining on a contract with a $7 million salary cap hit. Because the Maple Leafs don’t want to eat any salary, they might have to be patient.
Key question: How long will the Maple Leafs’ rebuilding effort take? Maybe shorter than the team is suggesting. This season will be a write-off, to be sure, but Lamoriello and Babcock don’t tolerate losing. They are too skilled at their jobs to allow the Maple Leafs' rebuilding project to become a five-year expectation. Would anyone be shocked if the Maple Leafs had made significant strides by 2016-17? The timetable will depend on how quickly their younger players develop. The sooner Marner, Kapanen and Nylander do, the quicker the turnaround will happen.
Forecast: The Maple Leafs have to be considered a favorite to be the NHL’s worst team. Toronto will be last in the Atlantic. That’s the plan, right?