NHL playoffs 2016: Watchability rankings for each series, plus keys
Here are the watchability rankings for the first round of the NHL's Stanley Cup playoffs. Included are my keys for victory for each team.
1. New York Rangers vs. Pittsburgh Penguins
Why the Penguins will win: The Penguins might be better-suited for playoff competition than they have been in years. The Penguins’ ability to score five goals against almost any opponent has been the talk of the NHL. But the Pens’ ability to prevent goals has been almost as impressive. Pittsburgh hockey is usually not low-scoring hockey. But these Penguins are sixth in the NHL in goals-against per game average. Nobody saw that coming.
Why the Rangers will win: With Montreal’s Carey Price out, the No. 1 difference-maker in the game today might be Rangers goalie Henrik Lundqvist. He can transform himself into a superhero capable of nullifying all of the Penguins’ offensive magic. Lundqvist could post two shutouts, and he could give up two goals and one goal to give the Rangers a 3-1 lead going into Game 5. You know that’s possible.
2. San Jose Sharks vs. Los Angeles Kings
Why the Kings will win: They are a big, physical, relentless team with considerable knowledge about what is required to win a championship. Los Angeles still has several players who were on both of its championship teams, including starting goalie Jonathan Quick, No. 1 defenseman Drew Doughty and No. 1 center Anze Kopitar.
Why the Sharks will win: Here’s what you need to know about the Sharks: They are fourth in the NHL in scoring and 10th in goals against. Plus, Joe Thornton is 36 and playing like he is 26. He had 82 points in 82 games this season.
3. Chicago Blackhawks vs. St. Louis Blues
Why the Blues will win: The Blues have played consistently well and are feeling considerable urgency to make an extended run. They closed the season with an 8-2 run to finish with the league’s third-best record. Ken Hitchcock’s defensive-minded approach should work well. The Blues boast one of the league’s most dynamic scorers in Vladimir Tarasenko, a talented defense and a group of players who can be hard to play against.
Why the Blackhawks will win: They will because they are the Blackhawks. The core players of this team — Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook, Corey Crawford, Niklas Hjalmarsson — are the leading world experts on hockey playoff success.
4. Philadelphia Flyers vs. Washington Capitals
Why the Capitals will win: The Caps have been the NHL’s best team almost start to finish. Under coach Barry Trotz’s guidance, the Capitals lost only 18 games in regulation all season. Goalie Braden Holtby won 48 games, and Alex Ovechkin scored 50 goals for the seventh time in 11 seasons. The Capitals rank second in goal scoring (3.02 per game) and goals-against average (2.33).
Why the Flyers will win: The Flyers have been in playoff mode for two months, needing to go 15-5-3 down the stretch just to qualify. It’s tough to play in Philadelphia, and the Flyers have a history of feeding off emotion and momentum. If they can plant self-doubt in the Capitals, an upset is possible.
5. Nashville Predators vs. Anaheim Ducks
Why Ducks will win: They are big and strong up the middle with Ryan Getzlaf and Ryan Kesler, and their defense is mobile and effective. When they realized they were going to have trouble scoring goals, they totally committed to a defensive game.
Why Predators will win: Goalie Pekka Rinne has had a frustrating season, but he has the potential to steal a series. Led by Shea Weber and Roman Josi, the Predators can also be very comfortable playing in a low-scoring series. Don’t forget that the acquisition of Ryan Johansen gave them an added offensive spark.
6. Detroit Red Wings vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
Why the Lightning will win: Ben Bishop has been exceptional in net, and this Lightning team learned much from its trip to the Stanley Cup Final last season. The Lightning are still a scary offensive team, but their strength is defensive excellence, defined by a 2.41 goals-against average. That ranked fifth-best in the NHL.
Why the Red Wings will win: The Lightning are banged up physically with Steven Stamkos and Anton Stralman out with injuries; Victor Hedman will play with an injury. But the Red Wings are comfortable playing the Lightning. They took the Lightning to a Game 7 in the first round last season. But they will need goalie Jimmy Howard to have one of his best playoff series to win against Tampa Bay.
7. New York Islanders vs. Florida Panthers
Why the Panthers will win: Jaromir Jagr isn’t going to let them lose. At 44, he could be the most fascinating story of the playoffs. He scored 27 goals this season playing about 17 minutes per game. Jagr’s enthusiasm has been contagious. But it’s not enthusiasm that carries Florida. It’s Roberto Luongo’s goaltending and a strong defensive system implemented by coach Gerard Gallant.
Why the Islanders will win: Captain John Tavares has Jonathan Toews-like qualities in his game. He can rise up and help turn a series. The Islanders are 34-9-4 when he registers a point and 16-1 when he has a multiple-point game. The Islanders went 1-1-1 against Florida this season and staged a dramatic comeback to beat them 3-2 on March 14.
8. Minnesota Wild vs. Dallas Stars
Why the Stars will win: They average 3.22 goals per game and dare you to try to stop them. They seem to play well enough defensively to make it work. It helps that the Stars are a top-10 penalty-killing team.
Why the Wild will win: The Wild might have just enough offensive weapons to exploit the Stars’ defensive vulnerability. Dallas is ranked 19th in goals against. To win, the Wild have to limit the damage the Stars do offensively. Ryan Suter will play 30 minutes per game, and he’s the guy who will be assigned to play against Dallas’ top line.