Predators lurking, but that's not good enough
Nashville Predators general manager David Poile went to bed Thursday night with his team in a playoff spot and awoke to find that the Los Angeles Kings had inched past for the last playoff position in the Western Conference.
It’s been that kind of season for the Predators. They have played impressively at times, but not often enough to earn any playoff security. With 45 points, they are one point out of a playoff spot.
“Statistically everything is just OK,” Poile told Paste BN Sports. “We might have only one or two players who are having a career year. If we are going to be a playoff team and believe we can win rounds in the playoffs, we are going to need more exceptional individual play.”
The Predators’ numbers show they deserve to be sitting on the playoff bubble: They rank 13th in scoring average (2.74) and goals-against average (2.60), 15th in power play percentage (18.7%) and 14th in penalty-killing efficiency (82.3%). They are ninth with a 51.38% score/zone/venue-adjusted Corsi, according to corsica.hockey.
Their 12-5-5 record at home has been negated by a 7-11-2 record on the road. They start a critical five-game road trip this afternoon at Colorado. Then they will play the Vancouver Canucks, Calgary Flames, Edmonton Oilers and Minnesota Wild. The Canucks have the same number of points (45) and the Flames, Oilers and Wild are in front of them in the standings.
With a plus-4 goal differential on the season, the Predators are the only Western team with a positive goal-differential that isn’t in a playoff spot.
The Predators are 13-0-4 when they score first, but they have only done so in 17 of 42 games this season.
Goalie Pekka Rinne’s numbers (2.42 goals-against average, .919 save percentage) are also in the middle of the pack. “He has been reflective of our team,” Poile said. “October was not good for our team, and not the greatest month for Pekka. But in November he got our team turned around and was named player of the month. I think he has played very well of late.”
Poile said “the magic number seems to be three goals (scored),” though his team won the last two games after scoring only two in each.
“We have to do better than that, but it says our goaltenders have been very good,” Poile said.
Filip Forsberg is one of those players who needs to elevate his game. Last season, he scored 33 goals, but this season he has 10 at the halfway mark.
“I would say in the month of December and on, Forsberg has been our best forward,” Poile said. “I think he has his game together and he’s going to score a lot of goals for us in the second half of the season.’
It hasn’t helped that defenseman P.K. Subban has been out with an upper-body injury since Dec. 15, and James Neal, who returned Saturday, missed five games because of an upper-body injury. Colin Wilson’s injury dates to Jan. 6. In the Predators' last game, key defenseman Roman Josi was injured.
The good news for the Predators is that Viktor Arvidsson, 23, has thrived with more responsibility, ranking third in goals (10) and points (25). And Subban is skating again, which means his return probably isn’t too far off.
“There are a lot of reasons we are where we are,” Poile said. “But my belief is that if we get healthy we can move up and be one of the better teams in the league.”