3 draft prospects seemingly pop out of nowhere
The November issue is always one of Red Line Report's busiest each year. We probably spend more time shuffling the rankings around and adding new players in November than any other month of the season.
That's because we are now two months into the Canadian Hockey league schedule, and the first round of tournaments from "International Week" are in the books, so our scouts have had a chance to see just about all the major teams and players at least once. And that always includes some prospects who seemingly pop up out of nowhere.
So far this season, the most notable shockers who fall into that category are an easy call to make. Swiss import Kay Schweri in Sherbrooke, Saint John defenseman Thomas Chabot, and Prince George center Jansen Harkins have each been standouts since Day 1, and at Red Line, we definitely can't say, "Yeah, we saw that coming!"
In the case of Schweri, he either didn't appear or never made the slightest impact on any of the four Swiss National under-18/under-20 teams we saw at various tournaments last season. And he was not a highly sought after commodity at last July's CHL import draft, where he was the 35th player selected.
Harkins is a slightly different story in that he was at least a high draft pick (second overall) in the 2012 Western Hockey League bantam draft. But unfortunately, he was with a franchise — Prince George — that is both geographically remote and for years had been a prospect development graveyard before new ownership took control last spring and shook the organization out of its collective coma.
Chabot had a somewhat promising debut in the Quebec League last season, but still finished with an abominable -29 rating on a Saint John squad that saw plenty of upheaval.
So there was no obvious indication (at least to us) that Schweri, Chabot, and Harkins were about to bust out in a major way when the puck dropped in September. But each has consistently been his club's best performer and catalyst most every night of the season so far.
So we say congratulations to all three for proving us all wrong — and please … keep it up for another five months.
Rising
Anthony Beauvillier (Shawinigan): Has been the unquestioned catalyst for a resurgent Shawinigan club. Makes things happen all over the ice and is the most quietly buzzed about prospect in the league.
Nick Merkley (Kelowna): Aside from leading the WHL in scoring, he has morphed into a team leader at 17 on one of top teams in the CHL.
Nikita Korostolev (Sarnia): Pure skills and a great frame. Should fill out into a monster and is going to score at every level.
Ivan Provorov (Brandon): Leading Brandon's killer power play with impressive quarterbacking skills. Elite talent also looks more comfortable in own zone with every viewing.
Dmytro Timashov (Quebec): Short stature is not a concern as he's involved all over the ice. Has consistently been the most dangerous forward in the Q so far this year.
Jake DeBrusk (Swift Current): Plays a tough, honest game and is scoring with regularity. We love his attitude and swagger.
Falling
Gustaf Franzén: What happened? Skating like an 18-wheeler powered by a SMART car engine.
Aleksi Saarela: Two years ago was talked about as a future star, but his development has stalled out and his game is stagnant.
New and notes from around the scouting community
-The last month has brought a number of interesting developments in the WHL, starting in Moose Jaw.
Everyone around the Warriors' organization was raving about Tyler Brown as a 16-year-old last year, and it became very evident why early this season. Red Line has been thoroughly impressed with Brown during a few early viewings.
He shows great jump off his edges in all directions with strong backward crossovers, and is the type of calm skater with a light stride that gives him a great foundation to build off, with the potential to become an elite skater with increased leg strength. A smart, heady player, Brown isn't flashy with the puck — just quietly makes sharp stretch passes and constantly ends up on the scoresheet every night.
At RLR, we're certain the offensive game will continue to develop, and we love Brown's composure along the blue line with the puck, and excellent awareness of game situations.
-It's not often that Red Line is still debating whether to place a 6-3, 226-pound, near point-per-game player in our rankings a month into the season. But until recently, that was the case with Calgary Hitmen forward Terrell Draude. In this instance, we just needed to see whether his below-average skating had improved in the offseason before being able to justify a placement.
Fortunately, after adding some leg strength in the summer, Draude appears to have added a full step from last season. Below average north-south skating aside, we like everything else about his game, including a great touch with the puck in traffic that allows him to consistently make heads-up plays. His first step push still has plenty of room for improvement, but continuing to work on leg strength should help. Regardless, he has shown a tendency to gain separation in the offensive zone and shields the puck well down low while cycling.
Draude is never going to be an elite skater, but he acknowledged skating was his primary target area for improvement last year because of scouts' concerns, so we think he will continue to work on it.
-There's no doubt a solid set of tools matters in scouting, but there usually comes a point when the production has to match the promise.
One Quebec League player in danger of seeing his stock drop after an unimpressive first two months of the season is projected first-rounder Nicolas Roy, who had four goals and five assists in the Chicoutimi Sagueneen's' first 20 games, which is way below where his numbers should be.
This is a kid who was the first overall pick in the league's entry draft and had decent stats as a 16-year-old (41 points in 63 games). In fact, those rookie numbers buy him a bit of an extra grace period, but he needs to start delivering soon or the questions will get louder. Guys with his size and gifts need to bring it.
-Size is also an issue for Mitchell Vande Sompel of the Oshawa Generals, but in his case, lack of size is causing the problem.
His skill set is certainly not an issue. He can match flow and quickness with anyone, which is why a 5-10 defenseman is on the path to becoming a high draft pick. He is a high-end skater, with or without the puck. Despite his small size, he battles well and is effective below the hash marks in his own zone, and knows how to use positioning to compete despite his opponents' weight advantage. We love his work quarterbacking the power play, and he's smart enough to use on the PK as well.
In addition, Vande Sompel's strong work for Team Ontario in the recent Subway Series versus Russia will earn him high marks from NHL clubs. At Red Line, we believe he'll be a selection for the CHL Top Prospects Game in January, and that will afford him another opportunity to showcase his abilities in a high-visibility setting.