U.S. vs. Nigeria: Scenarios to win Group D and why it matters
Going into its final group game the situation is simple for the United States – win and first place in Group D is all wrapped up. But what if Nigeria is able to snatch a draw or cause an upset victory? Well, then it gets a bit more complicated.
If the United States wins against Nigeria:
It will top Group D, regardless of the result of Australia v Sweden.
If the U.S. draws with Nigeria it will win the group if any of these happen:
Australia v Sweden is a tie.
Sweden beats Australia by one goal.
Sweden beats Australia by two goals, but the U.S. scores more goals than Sweden on Tuesday.
If the U.S. draws with Nigeria it will finish second in the group if any of these happen:
Australia beats Sweden.
Sweden beats Australia by three or more goals.
Sweden beat Australia by two goals and the U.S. scores fewer goals than Sweden on Tuesday.
If the U.S. draws with Nigeria lots will be drawn to determine first/second if:
Sweden beats Australia by two goals and the U.S. scores the same amount of goals as Sweden on Tuesday.
If the U.S. loses to Nigeria it will win the group if:
It only loses by one goal and Sweden v Australia is a tie.
If the U.S. loses to Nigeria it will finish second in the group if either of these happen:
The result in Sweden v Australia is not a tie and if the U.S. loses by only one goal.
It loses by two goals but scores the same number or more goals than Australia on Tuesday, and Sweden v Australia is a tie.
If the U.S. loses to Nigeria it will finish third in the group if any of these happen:
It loses by two goals and scores fewer goals than Australia on Tuesday, and Sweden v Australia is a tie.
If it loses by three or more goals and Sweden v Australia is a tie.
If the result in Sweden v Australia is not a tie and if the U.S. loses by two or more goals.
If the U.S. wins the group:
It will play its round of 16 game in Edmonton on June 22, against a third-place finisher from Group B, E or F. Facing Thailand (third in Group B) can not happen without a series of freak results with extreme scorelines. Most likely is a match-up with the third-placed team from Group F, probably England or Colombia.
If the U.S. finishes second in the group:
It will play Brazil in Moncton on June 21.
If the U.S. finishes third in the group:
It will be virtually guaranteed a place in the round of 16. The only way it could possibly miss out would be if all of the following took place: the U.S. lost to Nigeria by three or more goals, Switzerland v Cameroon ended in a tie, Costa Rica beat Brazil, Spain v South Korea did not end in a tie and Colombia beat England. Even then, the Americans would have some outs based on goal differential.
It will, assuming it qualifies, will play either Germany in Ottawa on June 20 or Canada in Vancouver on June 21. Barring a bizarre sequence of results, the most likely outcome would be a clash with Germany.