Why did USA get so lucky in group play at Copa America?
PHILADELPHIA – The big question coming out of the United States’ stunning reversal of Copa America fortunes was not how the team moved from the brink of elimination to first place in Group A – but why?
Saturday night’s 1-0 victory over Paraguay was enough to book a place in the quarterfinals and avoid the embarrassment of an early exit, yet even that looked to come with the accompanying poisoned chalice of a last eight showdown with Brazil.
However, within a couple of hours, former Group A leader Colombia decided to rest 10 of its regular starters and failed to gain the point it needed to solidify the top spot, losing 3-2 to Costa Rica in a major upset.
So what was it that possessed the Colombians, ranked No. 3 in the world, to risk an apparently more obstacle-laden route through the knockout stages, instead of playing its regular team and maximizing the chances of staying in first place?
Only Colombia’s team hierarchy knows, and they are not saying. But here is the best guess and a scenario that suggests the plan may not have been so foolhardy after all.
For a start, Colombia did not come here to just fight hard. It came to win it all. That means not only surviving the group stage, but also winning three more games to lift the trophy.
Flying all the way across the country to Seattle, which is where the USA will now play its quarterfinal as group leader, would have held little appeal. Colombia enjoys strong and passionate support among its expat community in North America, but the bulk of them are based on the East Coast.
When the Colombians play their quarterfinal at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, N.J., on Friday, it will be buoyed by tens of thousands of compatriots, even if Brazil is the opponent.
That looks most likely, but is by no means guaranteed. A defeat to Peru on Sunday night would eliminate the five-time world champions and a tie would make second place a possibility for the Brazilians.
Also, by resting its players on Saturday, Colombia’s main unit will have had nearly a full week of rest by the time it next takes the field, invaluable in a tournament such as this.
Colombia may also have been looking further down the road. The prospect of challenging a Brazil team that is without its superstar, Neymar, followed by a possible semifinal with Mexico, may seem like a smarter route than a long flight to Seattle to face an unknown opponent (most likely Ecuador), then possibly the inspired, Lionel Messi-led Argentina in the last four.
There was no fix on Saturday, no collusion or deliberate capitulation. You only had to watch the ferocity of Colombia’s attempted rally against Costa Rica and the half-time introduction of its best player, James Rodriguez, to see that it was trying to win the game.
But the above reasons are why it was prepared to take the risk by leaving out its main men, with the USA are the primary beneficiary. On the flip side, the Americans will be more than content to go to Seattle, a happy hunting ground where they will enjoy more home support than at any other venue in the tournament.
Such quirks often decide the fate of a team’s success in a major competition. The USA caught a lucky break, now it has to capitalize upon it.