Analyzing NFL team playoff odds tied to NFL prop bets
The question is a simple one: Will an NFL team make the playoffs in the 2019 season?
Once again, the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook has turned that query into a proposition wager, releasing NFL Playoff prop odds Sunday, April 28, on each individual team's playoff chances for the 2019 NFL regular season.
Only nine teams came out with even or better odds to qualify for the NFL postseason, leaving a full 22 on the other side of the ledger.
2019 NFL Playoff Odds
Here's how it shook out, ranked from most to least likely to make the 2019 NFL playoffs with the 12 2018 postseason teams in bold:
- Patriots : -900 (yes), +600 (no)
- Chiefs : -550, +400
- Rams , Saints: -310, +250
- Colts : -250, +200
- Chargers : -220, +180
- Eagles : -190, +160
- Bears : -110, -110
- Browns: even, -120
- Cowboys : +105, -125
- Packers, Steelers: +110, -130
- Vikings: +130, -150
- Texans : +150, -180
- Seahawks : +160, -190
- Falcons: +170, -200
- Ravens : +180, -220
- 49ers, Panthers: +240, -300
- Jets: +300, -400
- Jaguars, Titans: +375, -500
- Bills, Broncos, Buccaneers, Giants, Lions, Redskins: +500, -700
- Bengals, Raiders: +700, -1100
- Cardinals: +1100, -2000
- Dolphins: +1100, -2500
That established, here are a few knee-jerk thoughts and wagering recommendations.
NFL Playoff Prop Bet: Best "yes" value
Brace Hemmelgarn-Paste BN Sports
Last season's Cinderella Chicago Bears are likely to take a step back and the Green Bay Packers, under a new coach for the first time in 14 seasons, could be in for an adjustment period, leaving the NFC North door ajar for the talented Minnesota Vikings (+130).
NFL Playoff Prop Bet: Best "no" value
Tommy Gilligan-Paste BN Sports
The Cleveland Browns took a giant leap last season, improving from 0-16 to 7-8-1. However, the next step - qualifying for the postseason - is even tougher. Fade the hype, ride the streak and bet on the Browns (-120) missing out on the playoffs for a 17 th straight season.
NFL Playoff Prop Bet: Best "yes" longshot
Reinhold Matay-Paste BN Sports
It was only the season before last when the Jacksonville Jaguars finished 10-6 and gave the New England Patriots a run in the AFC Championship Game. And that was with Blake Bortles at quarterback. Former Philly Super Bowl MVP Nick Foles is now at the controls, and despite a tough division and 2019 schedule, take a flyer on the Jags (+375) bouncing back.
NFL Playoff Prop Bet: Best "no" longshot
Derick E. Hingle-Paste BN Sports
Drew Brees isn't getting any younger at age 40 going on 41, and we can easily paint a scenario where the healthier Atlanta Falcons and Carolina Panthers overtake the two-time-defending NFC South champs, whose window to win another Lombardi Trophy may have closed with the stunning/undeserving playoff losses to the Minnesota Vikings and Los Angeles Rams in back-to-back seasons. Take a shot with the "no" on the Saints(+250).
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