Milwaukee Brewers at Atlanta Braves predictions, picks and best bets

Esten McLaren | Sportsbook Wire

The Milwaukee Brewers (27-19) and Atlanta Braves (23-21) start-up a three-game series at SunTrust Park Friday at 7:20 p.m. The two teams come in having each won at least two in a row.

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook; for a full-set of today's sports betting odds, access them at Paste BN Sports.

Milwaukee Brewers at Atlanta Braves: Projected Starting Pitchers

RHP Jhoulys Chacin vs. LHP Max Fried

Chacin tries to get back to .500 on the year after dropping his most recent start. He's allowed a total of just three runs over his last three outings, going a combined 17 innings but with just eight strikeouts against six walks. His struggles this year have been largely the fault of a 41 percent hard-contact rate and an increased rate of fly balls paired with a dip in ground balls.

The 25-year-old Fried is striking out 8.32 hitters per nine with only 1.83 walks. He's inducing a ground ball rate over 51 percent. He was roughed up for four runs in the first inning in his second-to-last start but rebounded to strike out seven over five innings with three earned runs allowed this past Sunday.

Milwaukee Brewers at Atlanta Braves: By the Numbers

The Brewers took 2018's season series 4-3. The OVER hit in five of the seven games and five games were decided by two or more runs.
Atlanta ranks 13th with a team OPS of .763 against right-handed pitchers. Milwaukee is seventh with a rate of .793 against lefties.

The Brewers' bullpen is 12th in the league with a collective ERA of 4.06. The Braves' group rate is 20th at 4.51.
The Braves are 12-11 at home this season but have covered the spread in just 10 of the 23 games. They've played to the OVER 11 times. Milwaukee has played to the higher number in just seven of 22 road games. It's 11-11 straight up but 12-10 ATS.

Milwaukee Brewers at Atlanta Braves: Key Injuries

Brewers 3B Travis Shaw was placed on the injured list earlier this week and has been replaced by top prospect Keston Hiura.

OF Ender Inciarte remains out for Atlanta.

Milwaukee Brewers at Atlanta Braves: Picks and Betting Tips

</div> Moneyline: Chacin comes in as the hotter of the two starters and Milwaukee is the better team in Friday's splits. Take the Brewers at +122 on the road. Against the spread: Milwaukee is a safer play to cover +1.5 at -166 after sweeping a three-game set against the Philadelphia Phillies. Over/under: Take the UNDER on 9 at +100. Milwaukee's played below the same number in five of its last seven and Atlanta has gone UNDER 9 in four of seven. Follow Esten on Twitter <a rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" href="https://twitter.com/EstenMcLaren">@EstenMcLaren</a> MORE: <a href="https://ftw.usatoday.com/2019/09/burmese-python-discovered-in-surprising-place/?utm_source=USATAPP&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=inline-related">Burmese python discovered in surprising place</a> <a href="https://ftw.usatoday.com/2019/09/ufc-fighter-makes-opponent-flinch-by-screaming-in-his-face-during-staredown/?utm_source=USATAPP&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=inline-related">UFC fighter makes opponent flinch by screaming in his face during staredown</a> <a href="https://ftw.usatoday.com/2019/09/rangers-mike-minor-200th-strike-out-after-not-catching-foul-ball-on-purpose/?utm_source=USATAPP&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=inline-related">Rangers ripped for not catching easy foul ball so pitcher could reach milestone</a> <a href="https://ftw.usatoday.com/2019/09/packers-eagles-goal-line-passes/?utm_source=USATAPP&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=inline-related">Packers' puzzling goal-line decisions end in disaster</a> <a href="https://ftw.usatoday.com/2019/09/watch-avonte-maddox-provides-an-update-on-his-status-after-returning-to-philly/?utm_source=USATAPP&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=inline-related">WATCH: Avonte Maddox provides an update on his status after returning to Philly</a></body></html>

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