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Philadelphia Phillies at Milwaukee Brewers predictions, picks and best bets


The Philadelphia Phillies (30-21) and Milwaukee Brewers (29-23) continue their series on Saturday afternoon in Cream City. The Brew Crew will be looking to avenge a 6-4 loss in the series opener, as RHP Jerad Eickhoff pitched the Phils to a victory.

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook; for a full-set of today's sports betting odds, access them at Paste BN Sports.

Philadelphia Phillies at Milwaukee Brewers: Projected Starting Pitchers

Dale Zanine - Paste BN Sports

RHP Jake Arrieta vs. RHP Jhoulys Chacin

Arrieta carries a 4-4 record, 3.77 ERA and 1.37 WHIP into play, although he has struggled recently. Over his past three outings he is 0-2 with a 4.76 ERA and 1.71 WHIP with three homers allowed across 17 innings. The Phillies have managed a subpar 3-7 record across Arrieta's past 10 road outings, and they're just 2-5 in his past seven starts against teams with a winning overall mark, including 1-4 in his past five on the road against winning clubs.

Chacin will be looking to bounce back after losing back-to-back outings. He has allowed three or fewer earned runs in each of his past four starts, but he is winless over the past three, going 0-2 despite a respectable 3.38 ERA. He has managed a 2-0 record, 2.95 ERA and 1.08 WHIP across 21 1/3 innings at home this season, although he is a terrible 1-2 with a 10.03 ERA and 1.71 WHIP in 11 2/3 innings during day games.

Philadelphia Phillies at Milwaukee Brewers: By the Numbers

  • The Phillies are 4-0 in the past four road games against a right-handed starting pitcher, and 4-0 overall in the past four vs. RHP.
  • Philadelphia enters 6-2 in the past eight games overall, and 5-2 in the past seven on the road. They're also 21-6 across the past 27 games against a starting pitcher with a WHIP north of 1.30.
  • The Brewers have won just twice over the past eight starts by Chacin, although they're 8-1 across his past nine starts against National League East clubs.

  • Milwaukee is 0-5 over the past five outings by Chacin against teams with a winning overall mark.
  • The under is 9-4 across Arrieta's past 13 starts on the road, while going 6-1 in his past seven outings against teams with a winning overall record.
  • The under is 12-3 in Chacin's past 15 starts, while going a perfect 4-0 in his past four at Miller Park against a team with a winning road record.

Philadelphia Phillies at Milwaukee Brewers: Picks and Betting Tips

</div> <p> <strong>Moneyline:</strong> The <strong>Brewers</strong> <strong>(-126)</strong> are worth a small-unit play based on Chacin's solid work at home, and the fact Arrieta has struggled on the road recently. Avoid the <strong>Phillies</strong> ( <strong>+110)</strong> despite a tempting price on the road with one of their better pitchers on the bump, and the fact they're 4-1 in their past five in Miller Park.</p> <p> <strong>Run Line:</strong> The run line for the Brewers ( <strong>-1.5, +140)</strong> is pretty risky, so stick to the moneyline. The Phillies ( <strong>+1.5, -164)</strong> are just too expensive to take on the run line, so stick to the moneyline if you're feeling Arrieta over Chacin.</p> <p> <strong>Over/under:</strong> Roll with the <strong>UNDER</strong> <strong>(9.5)</strong> at - <strong>110</strong> based on the trends for both of these teams and pitchers.</p> <p> <em>Follow Joe on Twitter <a rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank" href="https://twitter.com/JoeWilliamsVI">@JoeWilliamsVI</a> </em> </p> <p><strong>MORE:</strong></p> <p><a href="https://ftw.usatoday.com/2019/09/burmese-python-discovered-in-surprising-place/?utm_source=USATAPP&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=inline-related">Burmese python discovered in surprising place</a></p> <p><a href="https://ftw.usatoday.com/2019/09/baker-mayfield-dunks-on-antonio-brown-on-instagram/?utm_source=USATAPP&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=inline-related">Baker Mayfield dunks on Antonio Brown on Instagram</a></p> <p><a href="https://ftw.usatoday.com/2019/09/ufc-fighter-makes-opponent-flinch-by-screaming-in-his-face-during-staredown/?utm_source=USATAPP&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=inline-related">UFC fighter makes opponent flinch by screaming in his face during staredown</a></p> <p><a href="https://ftw.usatoday.com/2019/09/an-11-player-wall-couldnt-stop-this-indirect-free-kick-game-winner/?utm_source=USATAPP&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=inline-related">An 11-player wall couldn't stop this indirect free kick game-winner</a></p> <p><a href="https://ftw.usatoday.com/2019/09/rangers-mike-minor-200th-strike-out-after-not-catching-foul-ball-on-purpose/?utm_source=USATAPP&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=inline-related">Rangers ripped for not catching easy foul ball so pitcher could reach milestone</a></p></body></html>