Cincinnati Reds at Cleveland Indians predictions, picks and best bets
The Cincinnati Reds (29-35) and the Cleveland Indians (33-32) do battle in the first installment of this season's Battle of Ohio, kicking off a two-game mini set at Progressive Field Tuesday.
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook; for a full-set of today's sports betting odds, access them at Paste BN Sports.
Cincinnati Reds at Cleveland Indians: Projected Starting Pitchers
RHP Luis Castillo vs. RHP Trevor Bauer
Castillo has been the ace for the Reds, posting an impressive 6-1 record with a 2.38 ERA and sparkling 1.10 WHIP. While his ERA is slightly higher on the road than it is at home, he is unbeaten with a 3-0 record, 2.78 ERA and 1.33 WHIP across 32 1/3 innings away from home with 44 strikeouts and five homers allowed.
Bauer hasn't had a lot of luck lately, as either the offense decides to take off a night or the defense collectively struggles to subvert his efforts. 'Bauer Outage' is 4-6 with a 3.93 ERA and .301 opponent on-base percentage despite an impressive 1.16 WHIP. For whatever reason Bauer has been better on the road than at home, as he limps in with a 1-4 record, 5.61 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in 43 1/3 innings at Progressive Field this season.
Cincinnati Reds at Cleveland Indians: By the Numbers
- The Reds are 2-5 across their past seven games, and 0-8 in the past eight tries against American League Central foes. They're also just 14-39 in the past 53 interleague road games.
- Cincinnati has posted a 4-1 record over the past five starts by Castillo against teams with a winning record, and they're 9-3 in his past 12 in Game 1 of a new series.
- The Indians are 4-0 in their past four against AL Central teams, but 1-6 in the past seven against losing sides and 3-9 in their past 12 tries vs. RHP.
- Cleveland is 0-4 in Bauer's past four starts, 1-5 in his past six home outings and 1-4 in his past five assignments against teams with a losing overall mark.
Cincinnati Reds at Cleveland Indians: Picks and Betting Tips
Moneyline: The Reds ( +104) are a tempting play with their best pitcher on the bump, but they are just 4-17 in their past 21 visits to Progressive Field. The Indians (-120) are the safer play despite Bauer's struggles at home.
Run Line: The Reds ( +1.5, -205) are tempting catching a run and a half against a pitcher who struggles in his own yard, but they're just too expensive at this price. The Indians ( -1.5, +172) are a great play if you have the courage to lay the run and a half.
Over/under: The OVER ( 8.5, - 104) has connected in five of the past six meetings in this series, and five of the past seven battles at Progressive Field, too. In addition, the over is 5-1 in Bauer's past six home outings, and 4-1 in his past five interleague starts overall. The trends all point under for Castillo starts, but bet the series trends instead.
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