Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves predictions, picks and best bets

Skip Snow | Sportsbook Wire

The Philadelphia Phillies (38-31) and Atlanta Braves (41-29) play the middle contest (7:20 p.m. ET) of their three-game NL East battle in Atlanta.

The clubs enter the weekend separated by a game-and-a-half at the top of the division standings. The Braves took Friday's opener, 9-8, sending the Phillies to their fourth loss in their last five games. The win continued what is now an eight-game win streak for Atlanta.

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Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves: Projected Starting Pitchers

RHP Aaron Nola vs. RHP Sean Newcomb

Nola continues to battle control problems, but he's also been hammered by a .350 BABIP in logging a 4.58 ERA through 14 GS. He's walked 4.6/9 over his last 6 GS and owns a would-be career-worst 4.0 BB/9 for the season. The Phillies right-hander will see a left-leaning (problem for Nola) Atlanta lineup, which has clubbed its way to a .914 OPS in June. The Braves have scored 60 runs over their last seven home games.

Newcomb returns to the Braves' rotation in place of Kevin Gausman (foot). The 26-year-old southpaw is making his first start since April 13. Newcomb has registered 16 relief appearances since. He'll face a Phillies squad, which hits LHPs at a decent clip (.777 OPS). Newcomb (2.59 ERA/4.80 xFIP) hasn't allowed an earned run at home since that April 13 start.

Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves: By the Numbers

These two bullpens have been headed different ways of late. Atlanta sports a slightly below average pen but one that ranks fifth in ERA and 11 ^th in xFIP over the last two weeks. Philadelphia owns a 6.62 ERA, 5.37 xFIP over that same stretch.
The Braves own a robust .834 OPS at home (third MLB).

Over its eight-game win streak, Atlanta has tallied 6R-plus seven times. For the season, the Braves are averaging 5.1 RPG.
Nola brings a fastball/curve-ball mix to the table. The Braves rank second in production against each pitch.
Left-handed bats account for 53% of Atlanta plate appearances against RHPs (MLB average is 45%). LHBs have pounded Nola this year (.949 OPS) and have also been a problem for the Philadelphia bullpen (.834 OPS allowed).

Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves: Picks and Betting Tips

</div> Moneyline: Some analytic run expectancy figures point to a Phillies' win percentage under .500. Take Atlanta in the even -108 equation. Run line: The Braves +192, -1.5 runs is a decent secondary play, given Atlanta's run-scoring prowess and bullpen advantage. The more one thinks Newcomb can go 5-6 innings, the better this play is. Over/under: The O/U is 9 runs, priced at -122. Nola has had some road mishaps that would get you more than halfway there - take the OVER. MORE: <a href="https://ftw.usatoday.com/2019/09/burmese-python-discovered-in-surprising-place/?utm_source=USATAPP&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=inline-related">Burmese python discovered in surprising place</a> <a href="https://ftw.usatoday.com/2019/09/ufc-fighter-makes-opponent-flinch-by-screaming-in-his-face-during-staredown/?utm_source=USATAPP&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=inline-related">UFC fighter makes opponent flinch by screaming in his face during staredown</a> <a href="https://ftw.usatoday.com/2019/09/rangers-mike-minor-200th-strike-out-after-not-catching-foul-ball-on-purpose/?utm_source=USATAPP&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=inline-related">Rangers ripped for not catching easy foul ball so pitcher could reach milestone</a> <a href="https://ftw.usatoday.com/2019/09/jaguars-gardner-minshew-meets-uncle-rico/?utm_source=USATAPP&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=inline-related">Gardner Minshew finally got to meet 'Uncle Rico' and NFL fans loved it</a> <a href="https://ftw.usatoday.com/2019/09/packers-eagles-goal-line-passes/?utm_source=USATAPP&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=inline-related">Packers' puzzling goal-line decisions end in disaster</a></body></html>

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